Explosions and Fraught Negotiations Show Iraq Struggling to Emerge From U.S. Shadow

Iraq's extended dependence on American influence was laid bare this week by massive bombings and by a breakthrough in a political battle over planned elections.

Both events cast doubt on the ambition -- voiced by governments in Baghdad and Washington -- for Iraq to manage its own affairs in order for America to withdraw its troops.

They also uncovered cracks in Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki's re-election campaign, which has cast him as a strongman leader capable of securing and unifying Iraq.

On December 8, five car bombs detonated near government offices in Baghdad, killing more than 120 people and injuring some 500. The previous day, the Iraqi parliament concluded months of convoluted debate with an eleventh-hour deal paving the way for elections to be held in March.

The United States welcomed the election breakthrough, reportedly brokered by its officials. It condemned the bombings that followed the deal -- the latest in a series of spectacular attacks that have gutted ministries and government offices in the capital.

Among Iraqis, the blasts prompted renewed condemnation of the officials who took control of the city after the U.S. military formally withdrew from its streets this summer.

Though Washington is intent on extracting the bulk of its troops from Iraq by mid-2010, Iraqi analysts and politicians interviewed by IWPR said U.S. forces were still needed to plug gaps left by corruption and disloyalty among the country's military and police.

They also said the U.S. was required as a mediator on Iraq's fractious political scene, as demonstrated during the long deadlock over the election law.

"The American role is necessary now in Iraq, not only to maintain security but to maintain political stability," said Hameed Fadhel, a political sciences professor at Baghdad University. "The Iraqi people no longer trust their politicians."

He added that ridding the security forces of insurgent collaborators was "a difficult, long-term task" that would require political consensus. "Maliki cannot carry out that mission alone," he said.

Abdullah Jafar, a retired professor of political sciences, said the debate over the election law had helped cast the Americans as mediators, "People read in the news that the American president or envoy had urged Iraqi politicians to approve the election law, to get out of the bottleneck."

Meanwhile, he said, "Iraqi politicians have shown people they cannot run this country alone."

American Influence

Iraq's first nationwide parliamentary elections since 2005 were originally scheduled for January 2010. But strenuous objections, first by the Kurds and then by Sunni Arabs, held up passage of a bill approving the vote.

Disagreement initially focused on the ethnically mixed, oil-rich city of Kirkuk, claimed by Kurds, Arabs and Turkoman. Sunni Arab and Kurdish leaders also fought hard for a greater share of new seats in the expanded parliament, with the Sunni Arab leader Tareq al-Hashemi using his vice-presidential veto to block the election bill.

The law was finally passed late on December 6 and the election is now expected to be held in early March. Several sources confirmed to IWPR that the Americans had played a critical role in the negotiations.

"The political process would be in a stalemate and the election law would still be blocked without American advice," said Tariq Harb, a member of Maliki's State of Law alliance.

He insisted, however, that the Americans had not imposed any terms. "The Americans advised Iraqi politicians - but their advice is not binding," he said.

Andy Laine, a press officer at the US State Department, told IWPR, "Credit for the passage of the revised election law goes to the Iraqis…. The United States offered advice and encouragement but it was the Iraqis that made the difficult decisions."