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Whistleblower: There’s a Lot Less Oil Than We Think and U.S. Has Been Trying to Cover It Up

Warning of a deliberate underplay at the International Energy Agency of a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.
November 12, 2009  |  
 
 
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The world is much closer to running out of oil than official estimates admit, according to a whistleblower at the International Energy Agency who claims it has been deliberately underplaying a looming shortage for fear of triggering panic buying.

The senior official claims the US has played an influential role in encouraging the watchdog to underplay the rate of decline from existing oil fields while overplaying the chances of finding new reserves.

The allegations raise serious questions about the accuracy of the organisation's latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply to be published tomorrow – which is used by the British and many other governments to help guide their wider energy and climate change policies.

In particular they question the prediction in the last World Economic Outlook, believed to be repeated again this year, that oil production can be raised from its current level of 83m barrels a day to 105m barrels. External critics have frequently argued that this cannot be substantiated by firm evidence and say the world has already passed its peak in oil production.

Now the "peak oil" theory is gaining support at the heart of the global energy establishment. "The IEA in 2005 was predicting oil supplies could rise as high as 120m barrels a day by 2030 although it was forced to reduce this gradually to 116m and then 105m last year," said the IEA source, who was unwilling to be identified for fear of reprisals inside the industry. "The 120m figure always was nonsense but even today's number is much higher than can be justified and the IEA knows this.

"Many inside the organisation believe that maintaining oil supplies at even 90m to 95m barrels a day would be impossible but there are fears that panic could spread on the financial markets if the figures were brought down further. And the Americans fear the end of oil supremacy because it would threaten their power over access to oil resources," he added.

A second senior IEA source, who has now left but was also unwilling to give his name, said a key rule at the organisation was that it was "imperative not to anger the Americans" but the fact was that there was not as much oil in the world as had been admitted. "We have [already] entered the 'peak oil' zone. I think that the situation is really bad," he added.

The IEA acknowledges the importance of its own figures, boasting on its website: "The IEA governments and industry from all across the globe have come to rely on the World Energy Outlook to provide a consistent basis on which they can formulate policies and design business plans."


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Terry Macalister is the Guardian's energy editor.
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Shocking, but where’s the proof?
Posted by: SagaciousD on Nov 12, 2009 7:24 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Although I am greatly encouraged to see a relatively mainstream organisation such as the Guardian devote a serious article to the probability of imminent peak oil, I must ask the obvious question: Where’s the smoking gun? Though I am personally inclined to take these whistleblowers at their word, I know that a great many peak oil deniers will dismiss their claims in the absence of compelling evidence. (Some will stick fingers in their ears and hum to themselves even when such evidence is presented, but we can’t really do much about them.)

We need additional IEA whistleblowers to present the kind of hard-copy evidence that brought down the likes of Enron. Publishing an internal memo that proves the intent to deceive would make a good start. Revealing a hidden set of undoctored oil-yield projections would also help to show that the IEA has cooked the books.

Still, the actions of the first two whistleblowers will no doubt encourage at least a little more mainstream debate about the implications of peak oil, especially if other mainstream news outlets can be bothered to pick up the story. Their actions may also embolden other whistleblowers to step forth. For that we should commend these two.

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Well, DUH
Posted by: stellabloo on Nov 12, 2009 8:17 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Obviously anything extracted from the ground is going to be in limited supply. Asteroid mining won't help us here either.

What I REALLY want to know is - and never mind oil, how about food and water shortages - why are we not yet talking about going back to HEMP ETHANOL?

Right now we are using corn for ethanol, which requires resource-intensive cultivation, when we could be growing a WEED instead and making ethanol for a $1.40 a gallon (look it up yourself).

Why - in an ENTIRE WEBSITE devoted to investigative journalism - has anyone failed to put 2 + 2 together to get 4?

1 - The richest corporation on the planet and one of the most unscrupulous is Exxon-Mobil, which has deep dark roots going right back to 1870 when everyone else was still using steam and/or hemp ethanol.

2 - The biggest consumer of oil and gas is WAR. If the US military was a country it would be 36th on the list of energy-hogging countries. That's ONE army.

3 - John D Rockefeller, proud papa of Exxon-Mobil, was the richest man in the world by 1900. Somebody PAID the members of a special government committee to figure out how to get the US involved in WWI (using propaganda of course) and modern mechanized warfare was born (not to mention modern PR). Did I mention that war uses a lot of oil and gas?

4 - IMMEDIATELY following WWI we had ethanol prohibition. Until ethanol prohibition, the farmers could brew their own fuel (of course they would put aside a few bottles of "special reserve"). IMMEDIATELY following ethanol prohibition we had hemp prohibition (enforced by spreading propaganda about some spic/nigga drug called "marijuana"). Except for a brief blip in WWII when dire necessity forced the government to come to its senses, we have had hemp prohibition ever since, the US forced over 100 other countries to ban it around the globe - and when the price of gas hit the roof at over $100 a barrel, there were food riots and poor people ate mud cakes, ordinary people were squeezed to the max (no doubt prompting more than a few foreclosures) and Exxon-Mobil made the most money of any corporation ever in the history of the planet.

Yes Virginia, there is a renewable resource that you can use in your gas tank. And the REAL question is: why isn't anyone talking about it :.?

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» The problem? Scalability. Posted by: SagaciousD
» RE: Well, DUH Posted by: reinaldok

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Dennis in MI
Posted by: dingham on Nov 12, 2009 9:16 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
The last paragraph mentions "as far back as 2004, warnings were being sounded". In high school in 1974 my science teacher, taught, that the world would be out of oil by my forties, @ year 2000. The president of the US, Jimmy Carter, sounded the alarm. Water and Food are even more important and are in ever shorter supply.
We just never wanted to hear it, as a country, ignorant, and blissful. Capitalism and perpetual growth are unsustainable!!!!

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» RE: Dennis in MI Posted by: Livemike
» RE: Dennis in MI Posted by: dingham

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Wow, a new high in worthless articles.
Posted by: Livemike on Nov 12, 2009 9:45 PM   
Current rating: 1    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Seriously two "unnamed sources" and a "Research Centre" that isn't honest enough to give itself a .gov address are supposed to prove anything? There is not a single statistic, fact or even reasonable inference in the piece to support the conclusion that peak oil is even possible. There's simply a lot of claims from people who, like all peak oil proponents have been wrong more often than Bush administration war strategists.

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» RE: Wow, a new high in worthless articles. Posted by: Romantic Violence

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So what can WE do?
Posted by: djnoll on Nov 13, 2009 9:23 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
This article, whether you choose to believe it or not, points out a very serious problem: We are running out of oil, and quickly! The experts in energy say that we cannot replace it as fast as we are using it, and they may be right - if we continue to use it at the current rates. However, with all things of this magnitude, there are answers, and they start with us - the human citizen. I call us "human citizens" in order to differentiate us from "corporate citizens" for a reason: we can actually do more to change things because we are willing to make the effort that corporate citizens are not because of their drive for profits over people.

If we are to survive, we need to set our own priorities - both as a person and as members of human communities.

The first priority must be reducing our usage. This can be done by pushing and getting our local governments to create good public transportation systems; smart localized power grids; localized food systems (both home gardens and small family farms with farmers markets, co-ops, and CSAs as food suppliers); and localized businesses that do not rely too heavily on imported products, but rather locally produced goods. All of these things reduce the use of fossil fuels on a large scale while addressing food and water issues.

Second, we work to educate our citizens on what is happening in this nation and the world, starting with history - real history, not revisionist, corporate history. We teach them about government, non-power skills, self-sufficiency and self-reliance. We educate them to make reasoned choices in who they elect and we teach them how to be active locally to insure that sound policies that are sustainable are enacted.

Third, we learn to question once again reports that make the world seem all rosy and great, when our own eyes and lives tell us this is not so. We look beyond the IEA reports and see the costs of rising heating oil and gasoline, and recognize that decreased supply equals increased prices (simple corporate economics). And when we question them, we begin to demand better policies and investments of government dollars into alternatives. We built an entire naval fleet in 1941 from nothing in just two short years - surely we can build a better power grid and alternative power sources in 10 years, which is about all we have left now thanks to the Bush policies.

Fourth, this goes back to #1, we conserve what we have by using it more wisely. Simple things on a smart grid like turning off lights that are not needed, unplugging appliances, upgrading heating and hot water systems, walking instead of driving (better for you anyway), all these little things add up. Personally take responsibility for energy conservation. Simplify your life a bit in the process, and be proactive in what you do. this goes a long way towards making a difference.

I know this is simplified, but it will be necessary to do. We can do it gradually over the next 10 years, or we can do it in crisis mode 10 years from now, with a great deal of suffering and loss. It is our choice, not our government in DC - ours at the local level, and as human citizens, maybe it is time we started to ignore the corporate citizens and just do it!

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gimmie shelter
Posted by: gimmie shelter on Nov 13, 2009 9:29 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
It is about time that some people have come forward to support what a lot of us have thought for quite a while. This is one of the reasons why our government is still not serious about global warming because they know the oil will be running out soon. And the wars will ensue. We are in for a very bumpy ride so fasten your seat belts.

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gimmie shelter
Posted by: gimmie shelter on Nov 29, 2009 3:35 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
It really is amazing at how few respond to an article like this or articles for our Vets.

Considering that both of these issues are the most important things that have the power to change the very scope of what it is to be an American I would have thought that more would have been interested.

I guess for most it is better when it hits the fan and not before.

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