Will Anyone Actually Vote in Afghanistan's Much Anticipated Run-Off Election?

With a little over two weeks to go before the scheduled second round of the presidential election, many are wondering whether a fresh ballot is possible.

The challenges of organizing a new poll in such a short space of time are daunting, given the deteriorating security situation, the onset of winter and public disillusionment with the first round.

On October 20, President Hamed Karzai stepped up to the podium and announced with a forced smile that he had agreed to a run-off against his main challenger, Dr. Abdullah Abdullah.

Flanked by foreign dignitaries, Karzai applauded the decision of the Independent Election Commission, IEC, to schedule a second round of voting for November 7, without ever acknowledging the massive fraud that had made a new ballot necessary.

He also never backed down from his assertion that he was the winner of the first round of the elections, saying that he had agreed to a run-off out of respect for the national interest.

"Unfortunately, our elections have been defamed," he said. "This would have brought the legitimacy of the government into question, whoever the winner was. I leave it to the Afghan people to judge whether I was the winner; I prefer the interests of Afghanistan to my own interests."

Tuesday's press conference, at which Karzai was joined by United States senator John Kerry, United Nations Special Representative Kai Eide, and the ambassadors of the U.S., the United Kingdom, and France, came after days of intense pressure on the Afghan leader.

Kerry acknowledged that there had been "lengthy and sometimes difficult deliberations" with Karzai in previous days, but he applauded the Afghan president for his leadership and statesmanlike behavior in agreeing to a run-off.

"This is a very important moment for this country and for all of us who are standing for democracy in Afghanistan," he said.

The first round of elections, held on August 20, was plagued by massive fraud and widespread insecurity. Hundreds of rockets rained down on various cities, dozens of people lost their lives, and several voters fell victim to insurgents who made good on threats to cut off ink-stained fingers indicating that a person had voted.

But Kerry and Eide promised the full support of the international community in guaranteeing security and assuring that the mistakes of the first round were not repeated.

According to preliminary results, Karzai received nearly 55 percent of the vote. But reports of fraud were so widespread that the Electoral Complaints Commission, ECC, a UN-backed body, ordered a sample audit of suspicious ballot boxes.

On October 19, the ECC issued its findings, according to which approximately 1.3 million votes were invalidated. This brought Karzai down below the 50-percent-plus-one threshold needed to avoid a run-off.

For several tense days, there were rumors from election insiders that Karzai was refusing a second round; and intense pressure was required to secure his cooperation. But the president's team still insists that he won outright on August 20.

"Karzai accepted a run-off for the good of the nation," said Moen Marastyal a member of Karzai's campaign office. "The president thought it would be good for democracy and for the legitimacy of the next government to go to a second round even if was already the winner."

The challenges of organizing a new poll within a few weeks are daunting, and it may ultimately prove impossible to carry out. Abdullah has indicated in media interviews that he is open to talks should weather, security and other problems combine to scupper a second round.

But both Karzai and Abdullah have rejected the idea of a coalition government, despite international pressure on the two men to hammer out a deal.