What Happened to the Afghan Elections?

KABUL, May 18 (IPS) -- After a series of well-known Afghan politicians announced their candidacy, the upcoming presidential election was widely believed to be a turning-point in the country’s history. But most of the big names declined to register, leaving what critics allege is a weak opposition to President Hamid Karzai.

Although Karzai was widely reputed to be ineffective, the fractured opposition means that many analysts expect the president to win this summer’s elections in a landslide. The turn of events begs the question -- why did Karzai’s erstwhile opponents back down?

Critics allege that the opposition to Karzai -- a motley collection of former government officials, businessmen and warlords -- were unable to come together and decide on a united stance. The leading contenders -- Gul Agha Sherzai, Ashraf Ghani, Ahmed Ali Jalali -- were unable to put aside their differences and choose a common representative.

"Everyone has an ego and no one wanted to allow anyone else to take the center stage," says Jalali, the former interior minister.

Many say that candidates will peddle their support for privilege and fame. "As soon as weak candidates realize that they can’t win the election (alone), they will give their votes to a more powerful candidate and in return they will ask for some privileges," says Said Jawad Hussaini, president of the Afghanistan-e-Jawan party.

For other potential candidates in the August presidential poll, the issue might have been losing privileges, not gaining them. For instance, Zalmay Khalilzad, former U.S. ambassador to Kabul, was widely rumored to be a top contender for the presidency.

Numerous tribal groups held demonstrations in favor of his candidacy, and he even convened a large meeting in Dubai to discuss Afghan politics and reconstruction. But analysts say that he may have decided against running because, per the Afghan constitution, he would otherwise have to give up his American citizenship.

Similar sentiments might have forced Jalali, another American citizen, from giving up his candidacy. It is also widely rumored that Jalali and another candidate, Anwar-ul-haq Ahadi, quit the race because of files the Afghan security forces have on them that they were reluctant to have open to public scrutiny. Jalali’s Chief of Staff, Ajmal Shinwari, denies such accusations, however.

Rafiq Ahmad Shaheer, a lecturer at Herat University, says that Ahadi might have been dissuaded from running because of pressure from his party, the Pashtun-nationalist group Afghan Millat.

President Karzai’s deft maneuvering also stymied the opposition. Karzai replaced his first vice president, Ahmad Zia Massoud, with Qasim Fahim, in a move that split the opposition. Fahim is a leading figure associated with the United Front, and it is widely believed that Karzai bartered a vice-presidential seat for support from him.

"Karzai chose him because he wanted to weaken the National United Front and gain the support of Jihadi leaders," says Dr. Muhajudin Mehdi, a politics expert.

Karzai’s move is also in keeping with the time-honored tradition of balancing out the representation from various ethnic groups. "This is why candidates are trying to choose their vice presidential candidates from other ethnic groups," says Abdullah Uruzgani, a researcher and member of the Andisha Foundation, a think tank.

Karzai is playing the game deftly, he says, and other candidates have not been able to use vice presidential appointments to their advantage, he adds. "Ashraf Ghani was expected to choose powerful vice presidents, but on the contrary, he chose some not very well-known people and this shows that he is not serious," Uruzgani says.