283 Bases, 170,000 Pieces of Equipment, 140,000 Troops, and an Army of Mercenaries: The Logistical Nightmare in Iraq

By Jeremy Scahill, AlterNet. Posted March 30, 2009.

In fact, the GAO characterizes the Pentagon's monthly reports on financial obligations under the global war on terrorism as being of "questionable reliability," adding that it "found numerous problems with DOD's processes for recording and reporting its war-related costs."

"Without transparent and accurate cost information," the GAO warns, "Congress and DOD will not have reliable information on how much the war is costing, sufficient details on how appropriated funds are spent, or the reliable historical data needed to develop and provide oversight of future funding needs."

Dollars aside, the new GAO report report raises serious questions about how Obama will handle key challenges that will ultimately determine Iraq's future and the extent of the U.S. presence in the country. Among the questions the Obama administration has yet to answer: How to dismantle or hand over the 283 U.S. installations in Iraq (including more than 50 large military bases); What to do with the 160,000-plus private U.S. contractors in Iraq; Who will provide security for the massive -- and likely expanding -- army of diplomats deployed in the country at the monstrous U.S. embassy in Baghdad?

Iraqis Could Vote the U.S. Out: Would Obama Listen?

Obama, of course, has always said that his Iraq policy is not set in stone and that he will adjust it according to "conditions on the ground" -- a sweeping disclaimer that could mean a 180-degree shift on a dime.

The GAO report acknowledges that under the Status of Forces Agreement, Iraq and the U.S. can "extend the draw-down time frame" if necessary, adding, "Either government can unilaterally terminate the security agreement by providing 12 months advance notice." In the absence of clearly identified conditions for the stability of the U.S.-backed Iraqi government, one scenario that could result in Obama extending the U.S. occupation is if the Washington-backed Baghdad regime is threatened by an uprising.

Statistics presented by the GAO are worth considering: "[T]he number of Iraqi army and police forces nearly doubled from about 320,000 in January 2007 to just over 600,000 in October 2008. However, according to the Department of Defense, over the same period, the number of Iraqi army units capable of conducting operations independently remained at about 10 percent of total units."

Iraq is scheduled to have a national referendum on the SOFA this summer, and the GAO report notes that "the Iraqi government has said it would abide by the results." This means that if Iraqis reject it, "U.S. forces would have to leave Iraq by as early as July 2010." At this point, it seems impossible to imagine Obama having all U.S. forces out of Iraq a year from now -- and certainly not his residual force of up to 50,000 troops. The GAO report suggests that Congress ask the Obama administration, "What are the U.S. contingency plans in the event that Iraqis vote against the security agreement in July 2009?"

More broadly, the GAO asks, "To what extent will the United States attempt to renegotiate provisions of the security agreement if security conditions deteriorate or other conditions are deemed insufficient to draw down responsibly?"

These questions will prove crucial in determining the sincerity of Obama's campaign pledge to end the war.

Will the U.S. Walk Away From its 283 Bases in Iraq?

In a dramatic understatement, the GAO notes that the U.S. "has an extensive basing footprint in Iraq. … Closing or handing over U.S. installations in Iraq will be time consuming and costly." With no fewer than 283 such installations throughout Iraq -- 51 large bases and 232 smaller bases -- the Obama administration has not said how it will approach this formidable task.

This is no minor detail. "According to U.S. Army officials, experience has shown that it takes one to two months to close the smallest platoon -- or company --  size installations, which contain between 16 and 200 combat soldiers or Marines."

However, the U.S. "has never closed large, complex installations -- such as Balad Air Force Base, which contains about 24,000 inhabitants and has matured over five years. U.S. Army officials estimate it could take longer than 18 months to close a base of that size." Obama should explain clearly how he intends to dismantle these bases or to what forces he is going to give control over them.

See more stories tagged with: iraq, iraqis, pentagon, blackwater, department of defense, ann wright, iraq withdrawal, u.s. embassy baghdad, eric leaver

Jeremy Scahill, an independent journalist who reports frequently for the national radio and TV program Democracy Now, has spent extensive time reporting from Iraq and Yugoslavia. He is currently a Puffin Writing Fellow at The Nation Institute. Scahill is the author of Blackwater: The Rise of the World's Most Powerful Mercenary Army.

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