Israeli Elections and the Rise of the Right

By Phyllis Bennis, Foreign Policy in Focus. Posted February 12, 2009.

Labor's Barack, a tired perennial candidate, claimed the Gaza assault as his own and had little else to say.

The rise of Lieberman and the official credibility the election brings to his ultra-racist party represents the only really new development. Lieberman, a Jewish immigrant to Israel from the former Soviet Union, has mobilized huge popular support for his calls for the expulsion of Palestinian citizens of Israel, for forcing Palestinian citizens to swear loyalty to Israel as an exclusively Jewish state, for drowning Palestinian prisoners held by Israel, and for the execution of any Palestinian members of the Knesset who meet with Hamas.

Lieberman will not become prime minister -- at least this time around -- but he will almost certainly return to a high government position if Likud forms a coalition government. And while some Israeli leaders have repudiated some of his past statements, this election makes clear that Lieberman and his toxic politics are now undeniably part of the mainstream of Israeli discourse and political power. 

Electoral Consequences

Netanyahu, who had tempered his rhetoric slightly while campaigning to avoid accusations of antagonizing Washington, never really left his right-wing roots. Shortly after voting, he headed to occupied Arab East Jerusalem and repeated his longstanding claim that he would never share control of Jerusalem with Palestinians.

On the issue of settlements, there has been virtually no difference among the various Israeli governments, regardless of which party has taken the lead. Whatever agreements they signed with Palestinians, with the United States, the so-called Quartet, the Europeans, the U.N., or anyone else, all Israeli governments have allowed, often encouraged, new settlements to be built, settlement expansion to continue and land-grabs to go forward.

In fact, with the exception of the last couple of years, the most aggressive settlement expansion has occurred under Labor governments. Livni, while claiming to support a two-state solution, campaigned on her support for "maintaining maximum settlers and places that we hold dear such as Jerusalem." 

Regarding Gaza, the makeup of Israel's governing coalition will not likely make any difference. The current cease-fires between Israel and Hamas -- each side declared a unilateral cease-fire, they were not based on any negotiations -- remain fragile.

Israeli policy will continue largely unchanged. It will continue the lethal siege, maintain the closure of border crossings, deny access in or out to Gazans and others, continue "targeted assassinations" and keep on the table the threat of resuming full-scale military assault.

The significant difference after the election will be language, not policy. Will we hear the discourse of negotiations, or that of force? A "two-state solution" or "putting aside statehood?" A "settlement freeze" or "greater Israel?" "Our Palestinian partners" or "death to the Arabs?"

Those linguistic variations will not reflect real differences in Israeli policy in Gaza, the West Bank or Occupied Arab East Jerusalem. But they will play a significant role in determining whether the next period of the U.S.-Israeli special relationship will continue as warm, fuzzy and business-as-usual or turn into something slightly more firm, perhaps even approaching fair. ("Principled" or "international-law-based" probably remain outside the realm of possibility.)

Israel and Obama

If Netanyahu becomes prime minister, President Obama's claimed goal of an immediate, intensive diplomatic campaign aimed at some version of a two-state solution will be much more difficult to attain. 

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Phyllis Bennis, a fellow of the Institute for Policy Studies, serves on the steering committee of the U.S. Campaign to End Israeli Occupation. Her books include Understanding the Palestinian-Israeli Conflict: A Primer (Interlink Publishing).

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