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Corporate Accountability and WorkPlace

Welcome to Stagflation Nation

By Hale Stewart, Huffington Post. Posted February 21, 2008.


The bottom line is the inflation picture is not that good right now.
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Yesterday on my blog I wrote a series of articles on inflation. The bottom line is the inflation picture is not that good right now. This has incredibly important implications for Fed policy. If the Fed lowers rates too much they run the risk of stoking inflationary pressures. That means that on the flip side of the current economic mess we run the risk of having to increase rates too quickly to deal with inflation. That move will slowdown the then underway expansion.

In addition, we're in a period of declining purchasing power for the average consumer. Note that energy and food inflation are increasing. As the cost of necessities increases more and more people will have less and less money available after buying all of their monthly necessities.

As the information below indicates, inflation is a problem. And it is growing.

I've written this title a bunch over the last few months, largely in response to a story of a few commodities hitting new highs. However, I haven't looked at a ton of charts and compiled them into a master list. So here is that list.

First I went to Futures Trading Charts. Then I looked at their futures charts for agricultural and energy commodities. I found 18 charts that show major price moves. All of them are listed below.

If this were one commodity I would dismiss it as a commodity specific price disruption. However, we're looking at major league price spikes across the spectrum of goods. That's a huge deal and it indicates a fundamental development in the markets. I stand by my standard explanation 101: with India's and China's standard of living going up, it's only natural the demand curve gets moved to the right. That means increasing prices.

I eyeballed the gains, so they might be off by a few percentage points either way but you get the rough idea.

Aluminum

Copper

Platinum

Silver

Gold

Canola

Cocoa

Coffee

Corn

Oats

Rough Rice

Soybean Meal

Soybeans

Wheat

Brent Crude Oil

Heating Oil

Light Crude

Propane

Now for the final question. Here is a graph from Martin Capital of Productivity.

Are the gains on this chart enough to absorb all of the cost increases demonstrated in the charts above?

Finally, given what the charts above show (who are you gonna believe -- government statistics or your lyin' eyes?) is this really a good environment to start lowering rates?

From the WSJ:

China's consumer prices surged by 7.1% in January, exacerbating the dilemma for policymakers who face both weakening global growth and a domestic economy still at risk of overheating.

The acceleration in inflation, up from 6.5% in December, came after heavy snowstorms in late January froze power grids and shut down road and rail transportation across much of southern and central China. The severe shortages of daily necessities that followed helped push the monthly inflation reading to its highest level since September 1996. And the snow's impact on prices is likely to be felt further in coming months, as it killed farm animals and damaged crops across a large part of the country.


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See more stories tagged with: inflation

Hale "Bonddad" Stewart is a former bond broker with several regional firms. He has been involved with the financial markets since 1995. He currently practices law in Houston, Texas. Stewart is the proprietor of the Bonddad Blog.



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Thanks for the charts but it may actually be a lot worse.
Posted by: ReallyBearish on Feb 21, 2008 11:07 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Keep in mind that the silver price rise is going into the teeth of a massive silver short position. Silver futures involve 1.2 billion ounces of silver. While there may be some overlap, 1.2 billion oz. is 4 times the annual production of silver, suggesting that most of the shorts are "naked". (The known world inventory of silver is 300 million oz.) Every week the short side of the contracts grows even larger. This is also true (but to a lesser degree) in the gold market.

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Great Post!
Posted by: Gegner on Feb 21, 2008 12:00 PM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
The dual whipsaw of rising prices and falling purchasing power represents a genuine threat to very stability of our society...

Worse, the ones hardest hit by these twin demons are the folks who do the 'heavy lifting' in our society...

Which is to wonder how long those folks will be able continue to do what needs doing for paychecks that no longer crack their nut?

Perhaps more 'problematic' is the widespread 'distress' we are seeing in local government, budget shortfalls are everywhere and the only way for a city or town to rein in spending is by reducing/eliminating services.

The 'race to the bottom' has turned large swaths of this nation into an economic desert...leaving communities across the nation without a taxbase to support them.

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This is the kind of data and its display that...
Posted by: nightgaunt on Feb 21, 2008 1:41 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
If it was shown on CMSM would rock the faux status quo to its foundations. Then the index of confidence would fall to its true level.
The economy has been in recession since 1999 with growing pockets to depression. The disaster based capitalists are rubbing their collective hands in anticipation.
I look upon it with dread. See 1934 for a less severe analogy. Today they,the fascists,hold all of the cards.

[« Reply to this comment] [Post a new comment »] [Rate this comment: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5]

Great! But all you had to do was ask
Posted by: Andie927 on Feb 21, 2008 2:33 PM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Anyone trying to maintain a budget, on a fixed income!

I won't bore you with personal stories, like 2% at best interest on savings! Then they say, why doesn't anyone save?? Electric Bills for the same kilo-watt hours that triple!

I'd like to see a chart, of basic cost-of-living the essentials, food, shelter, heat, ect. vs. income, since Bush has been in office!

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Remember the 1970's
Posted by: jimbee on Feb 21, 2008 3:06 PM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Investors would do well to look back to what happened in the 1970's for clues about what's ahead. Uncle Sam is in debt up to his ears and all indications are he's going to engineer a partial default via inflation and dollar depreciation.

Lessons to remember: avoid bonds, invest in tangible assets like commodities, land, gold and silver and strong foreign currencies.

Don't borrow at a floating rate; rates are going up!

In the 1970's people talked of a "wage price spiral." Today we have only a price spiral. If prices continue to rise without wages, we will have to go back to the 1930's for a historical precedent.

Many investors have been aware of these issues for years. When Greenspan recommended adjustable rate mortgages a few years back, I knew it was bad advice and that Greenspan knew full well it was bad advice. Something was up--but I didn't find out what until several years later. Greenspan (and Bernanke) aren't stupid--they're spinning us. Subprime didn't "just happen," regulators turned a blind eye and allowed it to happen.

The ultimate cause of the debt bubble is the trade deficit.

America MUST go into debt as long as it runs a trade deficit. This isn't intuitive but think of it this way: an economic transaction is a swap; something of equal value must go each way in the transaction. If a nation won't buy our exports, they must take an IOU. In theory, that IOU is a way to "time shift" consumption to some future date. For some oil producers with small populations this is somewhat true. For Asia lending to us is a strategic tool for attaining power via rapid industrialization and financial leverage over a predatory superpower.

But things aren't so simple. There's an old saw in banking circles that "if you owe the bank a thousand dollars and can't pay, you have a problem. If you owe the bank a billion dollars and can't pay THEY have a problem." Our relationship with OPEC and mercantilist Asia and been called a dysfunctional "codependence" by one economist, and a "balance of financial terror" by another. It's the result of a big chessgame played by elites in which the losers are workers both in the US and overseas. All that debt that's going to be inflated away should have gone into Asian worker's paychecks which they could then spend on imported goods. Our pundits make a big to do about how Asians save, but in fact they are often robbed of a decent return on those savings by too low interest rates (to keep their currency down) as well as banking crises caused by bad loans.

In order for the US to stop going into debt, we must reduce the trade deficit. There are two ways we can do that: we can stop buying imports because we've run out of money and fallen into a deep recession, or we can sell more exports to the surplus nations. We have limited control over what foreigners buy from us, so politicians have an obvious incentive to keep the debt bubble going.

An economy as a whole can not save or borrow, it can't live beyond or below its means. That means for every lender there is a borrower, for every surplus a deficit, for every nation living beyond its means there must be another living beneath its means. Do Asian workers really want to live below their means?

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» Good post! Posted by: ReallyBearish
» RE: Good post! Posted by: jimbee