Australia Faces Collapse as Climate Change Kicks in: Are the Southwest and California Next?

"It will get worse as global warming increases. Even modest temperature rises, now seen as unavoidable, are expected to increase drought by 70 per cent in New South Wales, cut Melbourne's water supplies by more than a third, and dry up the Murray-Darling system by another 25 per cent. As Professor David Karoly, of the University of Melbourne, said last week: "The heat is unusual, but it will become much more like the normal experience in 10 to 20 years." --"Parched: Australia faces collapse as climate change kicks in," The Independent, 1 Feb '09

It should come as no surprise that the first catastrophic effect of global warming will be record high summer temperatures, which scorch plants. A vast majority of the world's food comes from non-irrigated crops that are particularly vulnerable to record heat events.

"Few seem to realise that the present IPCC models predict almost unanimously that by 2040 the average summer in Europe will be as hot as the summer of 2003 when over 30,000 died from heat. By then we may cool ourselves with air conditioning and learn to live in a climate no worse than that of Baghdad now. But without extensive irrigation the plants will die and both farming and natural ecosystems will be replaced by scrub and desert. What will there be to eat? The same dire changes will affect the rest of the world and I can envisage Americans migrating into Canada and the Chinese into Siberia but there may be little food for any of them." --Dr James Lovelock's lecture to the Royal Society, 29 Oct. '07

"We underestimated the risks ... we underestimated the damage associated with temperature increases ... and we underestimated the probabilities of temperature increases." -- Sir Nicholas Stern, author of "The Stern Report," April 17, 2008

"Food riots terrify the elites much more than energy riots. Marie Antoinette was beheaded because bread, not wood or coal, was so scarce for the poor. The Roman Emperors provided free bread to a third of the population of Rome, not free wood, because they were very fearful of the hungry and jobless mob. For an increasing number of third world nations civil unrest, including violence, as a result of food deprivation is now the most significant threat to regime continuity." --Vinod K. Dar, Right Side News, 18 June 2008

"The alternative (to geoengineering) is the acceptance of a massive natural cull of humanity and a return to an Earth that freely regulates itself but in the hot state." --Dr James Lovelock, August 2008

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Here is what Climate Code Red says:

--Human emissions have so far produced a global average temperature increase of 0.8 degree C.

--There is another 0.6 degree C. to come due to "thermal inertia", or lags in the system, taking the total long-term global warming induced by human emissions so far to 1.4 degree C.

--If human total emissions continue as they are to 2030 (and don't increase 60% as projected) this would likely add more than 0.4 degrees C. to the system in the next two decades, taking the long-term effect by 2030 to at least 1.7 degrees C. (A 0.3 degree C. increase is predicted for the period 2004-2014 alone by Smith, Cusack et al, 2007).

--Then add the 0.3 degree C. albedo flip effect from the now imminent loss of the Arctic sea ice, and the rise in the system by 2030 is at least 2 degree. C, assuming very optimistically that emissions don't increase at all above their present annual rate! When we consider the potential permafrost releases and the effect of carbon sinks losing capacity, we are on the road to a hellish future, not for what we will do, but WHAT WE HAVE ALREADY DONE.

'Leemans and Eickhout (2004) found that adaptive capacity decreases rapidly with an increasing rate of climate change. Their study finds that five percent of all ecosystems cannot adapt more quickly than 0.1 C per decade over time. Forests will be among the ecosystems to experience problems first because their ability to migrate to stay within the climate zone they are adapted to is limited. If the rate is 0.3 C per decade, 15 percent of ecosystems will not be able to adapt. If the rate should exceed 0.4 C per decade, all ecosystems will be quickly destroyed, opportunistic species will dominate, and the breakdown of biological material will lead to even greater emissions of CO2. This will in turn increase the rate of warming' --Leemans and Eickhout (2004), 'Another reason for concern: regional and global impacts on ecosystems for different levels of climate change,' Global Environmental Change 14, 219–228

In other words, all ecosystems will be quickly destroyed, not for what we will do, but WHAT WE HAVE ALREADY DONE.

"I'm going to tell you something I probably shouldn't: we may not be able to stop global warming. We need to begin curbing global greenhouse emissions right now, but more than a decade after the signing of the Kyoto Protocol, the world has utterly failed to do so. Unless the geopolitics of global warming change soon, the Hail Mary pass of geoengineering might become our best shot." --Bryan Walsh, Time Magazine, 17 March 2008

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"As an aside, I wonder when the United States will get a Department of Climate Change."
. . . . .

Only when some corporation can figure out how to profit from it.

The U.S. is like the guy who falls out of a 90th floor window, and as he plummets past the 50th floor, someone calls out from an open window, "How ya' doin'?" To which the falling man replies, "Great so far! And just look at the view!"

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YES!

My fellow Californians... most of you have no idea what this lack of winter rain will have come summer time. Every day I hear people saying how lovely all this sun is and when we do get a little rain forecast, they go "Oh, I hope it misses us, we have an outing planned that day." The last time we had a drought here there were several million fewer people living out here and it was hectic then... what are you going to do when we go to water rationing? Where watering and showers are regulated one side of the street gets to shower Monday, the other on Tuesday and so on. You only flush if it's a turd, pee you let stay around til you can't stand it anymore. All those artificial lakes you take your boats and jet skis to will be returning to the valleys they once were, Watering lawns is forbidden, washing cars, all that "normal" stuff is a big no no. If you thought last summer's fire season was bad, just wait til you see this one.

This drought is different, though, that last one was more part of a normal cycle... this time it could stick around for years... decades... Arizona and New Mexico and Texas could become dust bowls that would effect the entire country depending on where the wind was blowing. Gardening will be very difficult because the increased temperatures will effect what can even be grown here. So get ready, it's not like we haven't been warned, seen the signs... we just kept on buying and driving those behemoth SUVs and scoffing at the data. Trusting the fools that head up industry and government. All this climate stuff combined with a collapsing global economy... should be interesting...

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The complexity of weather patterns is the real danger, and it's greatly affected by temperature changes. For instance, in the case of West Australia which already receives very little rain, prevailing winds are likely to change leaving this coast pretty much totally dry. It will have to be abandoned.
Just imagine: entire modern cities, stripped, empty, worthless.

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More than 20 people have died from the heat, mainly in Adelaide.

Yes, speaking from Adelaide, I have to say it's been damn hot. And people have died. One bloke died in his back yard, and was lying outside for a day and a half - they had to call in the police wearing hazmat suits, because his body was so 'badly affected by the heat'. Eeeuurrrch.

It's not just global warming that's crashing our ecosystem, though. Industrial agriculture, with its forced irrigation and massive overuse of chemicals, has washed away what little topsoil we had, and poisoned the waterways. Destruction of native bushland to make way for crops has raised the water table, bringing dryland salinity that makes Soddom and Gomorrah look like the remaining Brazilian rainforests. And the dust and chemicals washing off the land is poisoning our oceans - the Great Barrier Reef is rapidly dying off (although part of that is also due to warmer oceans, courtesy of global warming).

I'm just thanking FSM that we haven't had another bushfire: everything's so dry that the whole Adelaide area from hills to sea would go up with a whoosh.

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WOW ! What a load of crap.

I live in Western Australia and this article is WAY OFF the mark regarding W.A. in fact, most is simply pure unadulterated bullshit.
IMHO, I suspect the author of this article has an ulterior motive in writing such crap, without even checking his sources to ensure their validity., beating his drum of climate change and trying to spread fear where it's not neccessary.

FACT NO 1, W.A. has received it's fair share of rain this winter, admitedly not in the same periods as previously, but rain it did.
Our catchment areas contain more water within them right now, then they have at the same time over the last three years.
YES, there are many areas that suffer from lack of rain, BUT, this is brought about by idiotic policies of land clearing by farmers at the behest of our Government, thus destroying all vegetation which kept moisture in the ground.
YES, it also caused massive salinity of the ground which also is a serious problem.
However, no one wishes to spend the neccessary funds to rehabilitate the effected land.
Many farmers have demonstrated thru various projects that they have initiated at their own cost, that effected land CAN be rehabilitated successfully.
So, at the end of the day, it comes down to MONEY and POLITICAL WILL, both of which are in very short supply these days.
Our state has built the first major desalination plant in the country, which has over the last three years, taken huge pressure off the catchment areas thus allowing them to replenish. A second such plant is being constructed right now.

I might also point out, over the last few days our rail link with the Eastern States has been cut, and will remain so, until earth moving machinery can be brought in, which at the moment is impossible due to UNSEASONAL RAINFALL whic resulted in the wash away of the rail road.
And finaly in closing, I'd advise readers to take a GOOD HARD LOOK at a map of Australia, you will find it exists of a little MORE then MELBOURNE and ADELAIDE, it may also benefit the reader, to check out the rainfall in various states, you may just be surprised to see, we're far from falling apart just yet.

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DUH, funny, I haven't noticed any shift in our prevailing winds over the last thirty years or so.
Where do people get this crap ?
Wasn't too long ago, W.A. was espoused as the city with clockwork regular winds for the America's cup.
I haven't noticed any changes since then, maybe I'm walkin around with my eyes closed and senses shut down ?

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Move to Wisconsin, enjoy the water.
15,000 lakes! Lake Michigan and Lake Superior! Great rivers!
I love my 15 gpm shower head (the Costa Rican waterfall model).

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Or that there is hard evidence that the World's Climate has been cooling for the last 10 years

Or that the UK has had its heaviest snowfall in 20 years and is the laughing stock of Europe - because Everything has ground to a halt.

But No

We can't have anything mentioned that conflicts with the Religious Dogma of CO2 causing Global Warming.

We can't have any Really Objective Science. Any Evidence that conflicts, is like trying to convince the Pope that condoms are actually quite a good idea.

Now I actually agree with the vast majority of the Political views expressed by Alternet and the majority of its posters

But if I mention any arguments contradicting the Religion - I get the standard treatment endemic in the entire Global Warming movement

It's all based on the Precautionary Principle which is the biggest load of anti-science nonsense ever invented.

The Widepread adoption of Precautionary Principle is one of the main root causes of the War on Terror and the fact that most kids are Fat (they can't go out to play - its too dangerous)

Once you adopt the Precautionary Principle you can construct any load of bollocks that you can imagine as a possible threat that we must be protected against.

You can throw all real evidence out of the window and just use the evidence that conforms to your political or religious view.

There is no doubt that the planet is being seriously f*cked up by the actions of human beings causing horrendous environmental destruction - but rather than concentrate on the real evidence we have to be brainwashed with nonsense that Man Made CO2 is responsible for Global Warming

These loonies are just like the Pope preaching against Birth Control when the planet is bursting at the seems with exponential growth of human beings

If you don't analyse all the evidence of what is actually happenning and tell the real truth rather than spinning political dogma then you just make everything 10 times worse.

The main reason we are f*cked is because we have all become such corrupt liars about everything that doesn't conform with the crap we have been indoctrinated with.

The Precautionary Principle should be abandoned and replaced with objective Contingency & Disaster Recovery Planning Scenarios.

For example - we need to plan for the possibility that the planet could get considerably colder very quickly.

In the UK we have got rid of most of our capacity to clear snow from roads and railways - because we have been indoctrintated with the belief that everything is going to get warmer.

The fact of the matter is that the UK could become frozen solid for months like it was in 1963. If we don't plan for such an event - nothing can move - no work gets done - no food gets delivered - and we all starve and freeze to death

The world is run by complete f*cking idiots who believe any nonsense they are fed by the smoothest talking most corrupt piece of Detritus.

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Not too much else to say other than the same people who are Flat Earthers and claim there is no such thing as global climate change are no different than the Holocaust deniers and use the same "logic".

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Please allow me to play devil's advocate.

Michael Asher has a lot to say about global warming (I mean, climate change):

http://www.dailytech.com/blogs/~masher

The debate is still most certainly on.

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The drought like conditions have been plaguing the Southwest US for many years and nothing major has been done about it. By that I mean, no long term remedy has been espoused or discussed publicly at least. The only way to handle this problem is to negotiate a mutually satisfactory agreement to get water from areas where it is plentiful to areas where it is not. Unlike Australia, North America has plentiful fresh water which could be diverted with the political and financial will to make it happen. Canada has approximately 20% of the world's fresh water and only one half of one percent of the world's population. Doesn't that suggest anything to you? Why let 95% of all that water drain off into the oceans everyday? Think about it.

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There was a mighty, wild, and awesomely beautiful river, called the Colorado. It began in the northern Rockies, and flowed to the Sea of Cortez. The area around Yuma was once a seaport, used by the Spanish. Then, along came the usual greedy bastards who proceeded to convert that river into the series of impounds we have now. The usual lies promoting their destruction were propounded, and the usual bribes to crooked politicans paid out. Cities which should never have been built were anyway, and they proceeded to suck the river dry as those cities insanely mestasticised. Now, the once mighty river is but a trickle at the Mexican border and those improbable cities in the desert are running out of water and the politicans there clamoring for the rape of those areas with adequate water, which is exactly what was done before, and will only hasten the demise of those cities AND the land upstream. The acquisition of wealth at any cost must end if we're to have a future to look forward to.

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but they continue to exploit for profit and power.

This is a section from the NAU agreement:

Atmosphere and Climate Change: Even though climate changes are attributable, in part, to natural phenomena, such as El Niño or La Niña, a range of human activities that emit carbons or other gases also contributes to the problem.

In North America, the high level of industrial activity, the volume of transportation, and
energy consumption all affect air quality. The effect on the atmosphere by groundlevel ozone (smog), particulate matter, and carbon dioxide and nitrogen oxide emissions all have an impact on climate change.

It is widely recognized that changes in climate pose a threat to domestic economies,
natural resources, and ecosystem functions. Even though agricultural sectors can be
expected to adapt well to the climate changes, other potential effects could arise and have an impact on North America. Canada, the United States, and Mexico could experience the loss of coastal wetlands, coastal erosion, water shortages, heat waves, droughts, tornadoes, flooding in coastal regions, an increased threat of pests and diseases, forest fires, and damage to water sources.

As we look at North America in 2025, it is only prudent to examine various climate
change scenarios, assess their impact on North America, and propose policy recommendations aimed not only at mitigating the transboundary movement of these emissions but also at positioning North America in a way that will allow policymakers to anticipate projected impacts between 2006 and 2025 and respond to
them effectively.

Fresh Water: Fresh water is running out in many regions of the world—be it the water in rivers, lakes, basins, aquifers, or watersheds. Therefore, communities throughout the world will be seeking alternative water sources, and North America will by no means be exempt from this looming problem. North America, and particularly the United States and Mexico, will experience water scarcity as a result of arid climates coupled with growing populations and increased water consumption.

Juxtaposed to the relative scarcity of water in the United States and Mexico, Canada
possesses about 20 percent of the earth’s fresh water. Cognizant that water will become a strategic resource, Canada’s federal and provincial governments have undertaken measures to protect the nation’s water supply. This task is particularly challenging, given that Canada and the United State share many basins along their border, such as the Great Lakes as well as multiple rivers. Because water availability, quality, and allocation are likely to undergo profound changes between 2006 and 2025, policymakers will benefit from a more proactive approach to exploring
different creative solutions beyond the current transboundary water management
agreements that the United States has reached with both Mexico and Canada.

And people wonder why privatization of water is the next big issue.

Mad Maxx, here we come.

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The "catastrophic" study at the end of this article also doesn't take methane into account.

Whether anyone wants to be accurate about the world climate's future or not, actual methane levels in the atmosphere are now going up. Moreover, methane releases are accelerating.

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Please can’t we wait until all the dead have been counted, the human suffering examined and the fires put out, before equating the Bushfires in Australia to this almost religious crusade know as the “Climate Change”.

It’s so disgusting that they use the human toll as a prop to continue their push to get through their global carbon tax on the people of the world, without knowing anything about Australia, its climate, and these fires.

Australia’s most power Green politician on SKY news was careful not to blame the devastation on “climate change”, despite the egging on by the news readers trying their best to get a sensational response in the middle of the crisis, Senator Bob Brown simply said, if the models are correct, these extreme events will increase.

Australia has had bushfires for the last 10,000 years, since the aboriginal population set fires in the correct conditions, like the ones in Victoria over the weekend, to burn down the forest, and get easy access to food; it is no surprise that police are also pointing to fire bugs as the real culprit in this devastation.

South Australia suffered 6 days of over 40 c weather, but not one major fire broke out, the police in that state have a policy of during days of extreme fire danger, to visit all know arsonists, and remind them they are being watched, along with a fire watch and fire patrol program in the bush, arguably that has to be the best in the world, and better that a hundred fire bombers, and a thousand fire trucks.

Victorian authorities on the other hand left the situation in the hands of chance, and the odds did not go their way. The rapidly changing winds as a cool change came through was the cause of so much misery, as people who thought they were safe, suddenly winds of 50kmh pushed the fires over hills and into towns without warning. It wasn’t the heat that killed, if was the milder weather, something International media is ignoring, not wanting to douse down the climate change alarmism.

Weather is not Climate, one hot summer does not make a trend, and ten year droughts are not new to this continent. If anything Australia needs to turn its attention to population expansion into bushland, rather than our coal power stations, to reduce the chance of future death and property damage caused by a land, that has always been know as harsh and unforgivable, especially in Summer.

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The truth is; the native people of Australia have been setting fires for more than 40,000 years. They are the oldest continuous civilization on the planet. The fire practices of the natives are so integral to the ecosystem of this dry continent that many trees and plants will not germinate unless their seeds have been seared by flames. All credit to them for having survived and flourished here for so long without leaving a mark on the land.

Australia has always been dry. Europeans are just getting the hang of that fact. Without controlled burns the fuel builds up quickly and the fires get out of hand. This is nothing new. I don't see how it proves the argument for global warming.

And finally Australians may produce more carbon per head of population than any other country but there's only 20 million of us and we've got government departments recently set up to cut those emissions dramatically in the next few years. What are Americans doing to cut their emissions?
How about laying the blame where it belongs.
You Americans are the worst polluters on Earth. This article tries to shift the blame away from the United States. Smaller nations like us are suffering because your country devours resources and creates pollution like there is no tomorrow. If you keep it up at this rate there won't be.

If Australia is the world's canary. The U.S. is the toxic gas factory.

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It strikes me as extremely important that no-one ever asks the question "why can't we make it rain?" The technology has existed for years, and yet it is never even considered in any of these droughts. That gets my conspiratorial antenna up.

Who benefits from "global warming"? Answer: world government. Gee, isn't that interesting? The same guys who benefited from the world wars, the depression, and every other horrible thing that has happened in the past 100 years.

What about the chemtrails? How could they not have something to do with climate? But we never talk about that elephant in the living room that most people can't even see. AUGGH!

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