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War on Iraq

Is It Game Over for U.S. Control of Iraqi Oil?

By Jack Miles, Tomdispatch.com. Posted October 25, 2007.


The oil game in Iraq may be almost up as the Iraqi government is trying to oust the U.S.
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The oil game in Iraq may be almost up. On September 29th, like a landlord serving notice, the government of Iraq announced that the next annual renewal of the United Nations Security Council mandate for a multinational force in Iraq -- the only legal basis for a continuation of the American occupation -- will be the last. That was, it seems, the first shoe to fall. The second may be an announcement terminating the little-noticed, but crucial companion Security Council mandate governing the disposition of Iraq's oil revenues.

By December 31, 2008, according to Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari, the government of Iraq intends to have replaced the existing mandate for a multinational security force with a conventional bilateral security agreement with the United States, an agreement of the sort that Washington has with Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and several other countries in the Middle East. The Security Council has always paired the annual renewal of its mandate for the multinational force with the renewal of a second mandate for the management of Iraqi oil revenues. This happens through the "Development Fund for Iraq," a kind of escrow account set up by the occupying powers after the overthrow of the Saddam Hussein regime and recognized in 2003 by U.N. Security Council Resolution 1483. The oil game will be up if and when Iraq announces that this mandate, too, will be terminated at a date certain in favor of resource-development agreements that -- like the envisioned security agreement -- match those of other states in the region.

The game will be up because, as Antonia Juhasz pointed out last March in a New York Times op-ed, "Whose Oil Is It, Anyway?":

"Iraq's neighbors Iran, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia.... have outlawed foreign control over oil development. They all hire international oil companies as contractors to provide specific services as needed, for a limited duration, and without giving the foreign company any direct interest in the oil produced."

By contrast, the oil legislation now pending in the Iraqi parliament awards foreign oil companies coveted, long-term, 20-35 year contracts of just the sort that neighboring oil-producers have rejected for decades. It also places the Iraqi oil industry under the control of an appointed body that would include representatives of international oil companies as full voting members.

The news that the duly elected government of Iraq is exercising its limited sovereignty to set a date for termination of the American occupation radically undercuts all discussion in Congress or by American presidential candidates of how soon the U.S. occupation of Iraq may "safely" end. Yet if, by the same route, Iraq were to resume full and independent control over the world's third-largest proven oil reserves -- 200 to 300 million barrels of light crude worth as much as $30 trillion at today's prices -- a politically incorrect question might break rudely out of the Internet universe and into the mainstream media world, into, that is, the open: Has the Iraq war been an oil war from the outset?

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan evidently thought so or so he indicated in a single sentence in his recent memoir: "I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil." When asked, Gen. John Abizaid, former CENTCOM commander who oversaw three and a half years of the American occupation of Iraq, agreed. "Of course it's about oil, we can't really deny that," he said during a roundtable discussion at Stanford University. These confessions validated the suspicions of foreign observers too numerous to count. Veteran security analyst Thomas Powers observed in the New York Review of Books recently:

What it was only feared the Russians might do [by invading Afghanistan in the 1980s] the Americans have actually done -- they have planted themselves squarely astride the world's largest pool of oil, in a position potentially to control its movement and to coerce all the governments who depend on that oil. Americans naturally do not suspect their own motives but others do. The reaction of the Russians, the Germans, and the French in the months leading up to the war suggests that none of them wished to give Americans the power which [former National Security Adviser Zbigniew] Brzezinski had feared was the goal of the Soviets.

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See more stories tagged with: iraq war, iraq, oil

Jack Miles is senior fellow for religious affairs with the Pacific Council on International Policy and professor of English and religious studies at the University of California, Irvine. He is the author of the Pulitzer Prize-winning God: A Biography, among other works.

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Wow ! Great Reporting !
Posted by: mmckinl on Oct 25, 2007 12:41 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Truly amazing news. Of course it is hard to ferret out any of this from the MSM ...

If I were al Maliki or the Prime Minister , I would keep my head down. BushCo will have to respond and the response won't be pretty.

Expect a big explosion in the Iraqi Parliament just as al Maliki is adddressing it . The carnage will be blamed on the Iranians and war will ensue.

BTW Iraq's reserves are in the billlions of barrels , not milllions. The world goes through 80 million barrels per day!

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Well that's one way to say it!
Posted by: TT21 on Oct 25, 2007 4:42 AM   
Current rating: 4    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
And while America is down on the bloody gutters of Bagdad, China is alread getting a hang of the game:)

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kevin
Posted by: RODNOX on Oct 25, 2007 5:18 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
GOOD FOR THEM----I HOPE THROWS A WRENCH IN THE '' LETS TAKE OVER THE WORLD'' MENTALITY OF PINKY AND THE BRAIN---AKA--BUSH --CHENEY.

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the game is over when the nationalists win
Posted by: solrev on Oct 25, 2007 5:38 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
In 2005 I thought the Iraqi government would stand up against the occupation by Aug of 2007. Survival of the Iraqi government depends on establishing Iraqi sovereignty. What I did not see at that time was the surge, which only created a 3-month delay. What I also did not see coming was the gearing up for an Iran invasion. If Bush can invade Iran before Hillary takes office, Hillary can remain in Iraq. We need our troops there to fight Iran. The goal still is to control the region and set up a new international oil currency independent of a national currency. When that happens, the dollar crashes and the world is thrown into a depression. With the new international currency, the bankers can loan money to the countries to by cheap oil and rebuild their economies as dictated by the new international bankers. Nice plan except, there is no one to regulate the international bankers. You did not think the green zone was built to be an embassy, did you? I do not know what you call these internationalists; illuminati, templer knights, or free masons make something up. However to us they are the beast.

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Tax the rich, they started this war.
Posted by: douglashoyt on Oct 25, 2007 6:18 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
The cost of this war in Iraq is 2.4 trillion. Tax the rich. Take all of their money to pay for this criminal war.

The ruling elite/rich started this war to profit. Well, the "free" market rewards success and punishes failure. They have failed, so let the rich and ruling elite pay the price.

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It was never about oil for America.
Posted by: KeepsonTickn on Oct 25, 2007 6:26 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Though Bush has committed over a trillion dollars of American money in this gambit, it is obvious that it was never to secure the oil for the American people. We are just pawns in the neocon game. The Bush/Cheney constituency is the multinational oil companies. Were it to succeed, the results for Americans would be just as dismal. Knowing this, Bush and Republican accomplices have been working just as hard to destroy the U.S. electoral system, to gain the right to monitor our communications at will, and to take away our civil protections. When these things are accomplished, they can keep control of the U.S. despite their obvious disdain for its people and its institutions. With the cooperation of the corporate-owned media, they can even pretend it isn't so.

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25 ghostcommander
Posted by: 25ghostcommander on Oct 25, 2007 7:12 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Would anybody with any intelligence whatsoever vote for anybody that initiated and supported the total disaster of the Bush mis-administration? Name just one positive accomplishment that will stand alone!

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» Sadly, Yes Posted by: Sparks56
perplexed
Posted by: perplexed on Oct 25, 2007 8:10 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
You don't think Bush wants to invade IRAN for its nuclear capabilities do you? It is to keep IRAN out of IRAQ, so IRAN can't have anything to do with its oil etc. Wake up AMERICA!!
Everything that comes from the Bush adm. is a bunch of lies, LIES, get it LIES! Yet he gets before the camera with his SMIRK and everyone take what he has to say as the truth.
Bush is not going to CA. to view the fires, CA is democratic state, he is playing a political game to turn it into a republican state. Any democratic president would do better than any Rep. president on disaster any time any where, even the WORLD TRADE CENTER. WAKE UP AMERICA! Put head where it belongs on your shoulders.

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» RE: perplexed Posted by: leafsong1
» preaching to the choir Posted by: frantaylor
» RE: perplexed Posted by: worldwide65
I wonder what the Iraqi people think about this?
Posted by: thoughtcriminal on Oct 25, 2007 8:58 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Eight months ago, when Petraeus kicked off his "surge" one of his main stated goals was to pressure the Iraq government to pass the hydrocarbon law - an effort that has failed. Petraeus has also been supporting the ongoing ethnic cleansing of various regions of Iraq - driving the Sunnis out of the south and the Shiites out of the west and creating huge numbers of internal refugees in the country.

The goal of Bush and the US Congress isn't to secure oil for the use of American consumers (hogs though we are), it's to control the oil production of Iraq, period. Their hope was always to turn Iraq into their own private Saudi Arabia, and to use it as the new "swing producer" - a role once played by Texas, and then by Saudi Arabia. That 200 - 300 billion barrels of oil (typo in article - not millions) could be used to flood the oil market, thereby controlling the price - and if Washington is the one who gives the orders, that mean that Washington has an economic lever that it can hold over other countries - that seems to be the real agenda here.

The real threat that Iraq seemed to pose, in the eyes of Washington, was that they were trying to modernize their country, and they had a skilled workforce that was capable of doing so. Saddam was indeed a tyrant, but he was certainly no worse than the Burmese generals or the Saudi Royals, both of whom have dungeons and torture chambers. Bush's claims about 'spreading democracy' certainly don't apply to the Saudis, do they?

For another good overview of Iraqi oil, see Black gold turns grey as Western giants prepare to draw from the wells of Iraq, Sept 29 2007

As the executives toasted one another with cocktails sponsored by Lukoil at the Iraq Petroleum 2007 conference in Dubai earlier this month, ordinary Iraqis were living in a state of emergency. Oxfam reports that 28 per cent of the country's children are malnourished, that four million people regularly can't buy enough to eat, and that 70 per cent are without adequate water supplies. With 60,000 Iraqis fleeing their homes each month and reports of an average of 62 violent deaths per day, the soft carpets, piped music and quiet deal-making at the Hyatt Regency hotel were a world away from occupied Iraq.

At the same time, a parallel conference was taking place in Basra under the banner, "Oil wealth belongs to the Iraqi people". Organised by the Iraqi Federation of Oil Unions (Ifou) and attended by civil society leaders, activists and academics from all over the country, this was Ifou's third conference aimed at stopping the likes of Shell and BP from gaining a controlling stake in Iraq's oil wealth.


Let's not forget how this all got started: Bush and Cheney and Rumsfeld and their allies cooked up fake evidence about nuclear and chemical weapons in Iraq and used that as justification for an illegal war of agression.

When are we going to see an investigation of the fake evidence used to start this war? Is there the rule of law here, or is our government entirely out of control? The facts are that Bush & the US Congress started an illegal war based on deliberately faked evidence - which is what Hitler did in Poland, what the Japanese did in Manchuria, and what Saddam did in the invasion of Kuwait.

Given that fact, and the million deaths in Iraqi, I seriously doubt that the Iraqi people want anything to do with any "bilateral security agreement" with the US, regardless of the statements made by the puppet Iraqi Council of Ministers (all originally appointed via Paul Bremer's CPA). These people can't leave the Green Zone without being attacked, after all.

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Look at the Actual Outcome
Posted by: rjgwood on Oct 25, 2007 9:07 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
If you look at the actual outcome, not what the Bush Administration said they would do in Iraq (liberate, push for democratic reform), it is quite clear what the plan was all along:

Decapitate the Iraqi political structure
Dismantle the military & administrative bureacracy
Set up a government hampered by your own policy dictives
Quickly establish permanent bases & an embassy
Start pumping oil out under U.S. control ASAP
Control the internal Iraqi press

They made several miscalculations, however, that are stalling their diabolical oil theft:

1. The Iraqi government is much less beholden to them, especially as they really have done nothing to garner their support: no schools, hospitals, jobs, etc.

2. The Iraqi's are not complacent and are fighting in the insurgency

3. The internet is allowing real reporting out of Iraq, dispite the initial blind adulational support of the US media and the stranglehold the U.S. has over the official Iraqi press

4. They are not welcoming us with open arms, so the occupation is taking much longer, opening up the Iraqi government to influence from other nations (could China or Russia start getting contracts from the government, as the author of the article above points out?)

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clueless author
Posted by: leafsong1 on Oct 25, 2007 9:17 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
"United Nations Security Council mandate for a multinational force in Iraq"
What? When did that happen? The UNSC has done nothing more than recognize that Iraq is occupied territory and that the occupiers are the US and UK. There is no UN mandate for a multinational force, and there never has been. Then the author goes on to imply that the puppet "government" in Bagdhad can oust the occupiers simply by demanding that they leave. What planet has he been living on? No need to read beyond the first paragraph; this guy is an idiot.

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» No, the author's not clueless Posted by: Joshua Holland
» clueless author -- not really Posted by: worldwide65
Wouldn't it be sweet
Posted by: willymack on Oct 25, 2007 9:19 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
If the "democratically elected" bushie stooges in Iraq actually take control of their own country and go to the UN to demand our immediate exit? Wouldn't it be great if they could make that stick?. The very idea of a truly independent Iraq in complete control of its national resources must literally turn the bushies' stomachs, but what can they do without revealing the REAL reason for the brutalization and illegal occupation of that country without revealing to one and all-including the lunkheads here, who STILL support this criminal regime-that reason, namely the theft of Iraqi oil? Anything led by bush is half-assed at best, and tragic, as we can all see, at worst. Let's face it; there are a lot more worsts than bests.

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» RE: Wouldn't it be sweet Posted by: symcokid
Act now Maliki !
Posted by: Constitutionalist75 on Oct 25, 2007 10:57 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
If the Iraqi government wants to oust the Americans they had better hurry up before Bush attacks Iran, which considering Iran's recent Caspian Sea agreement with Russia, would precipitate World War Three!

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Bush's inaction
Posted by: dkm on Oct 25, 2007 11:17 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Food for thought about Bush's inaction at the moment is that with prices approaching $100 per barrel the oil industry isn't hurting at all. They have been making record profits these last couple years with oil prices climbing to record highs, so there is no reason to think that even higher prices will hurt them. Given that Bush's base really is the oil industry, the only major industry still supporting Republican candidates, I see no reason for him to worry about anything that Iraq will do short of refusing to sell to US companies.

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The big ugly is very close at hand
Posted by: donl51 on Oct 25, 2007 11:08 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Forget holy wars, this one won't be for religion ! We're on the down slope of peak oil, the USA uses a lot, China is growing and will be wanting more soon, Whenever we go to help another our real agenda is to get their oil, China is eyeballing Russias oil,and China has a real big army,Russia on the other hand doesn't but they do still have nukes! bad thing,sooner than we think we're all going to want to control what oil is left,forget fantasy alternatives may be fine for citizenry but we're not in charge,actually we're going to pay the big price, all Govs have continjency plans for survival .Some of the best alternatives that could at least help us in the mean time are forbidden out of sheer corp. greed.....we are own worst enemy,! I hope what grows next is smarter and not greedy!

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In the meantime, the Left can start going on the REAL offensive by doing the following.
Posted by: maxpayne on Oct 25, 2007 11:41 AM   
Current rating: 4    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
1. LEGALIZE INDUSTRIAL HEMP for fuel.

2. Fund and stop allowing Big Oil/Coal/Nuclear to buyout patents on solar, wind, geothermal, hemp, tidal, etc ...

3. Make conservation a rewarding experience instead of calling gas guzzlers simply stupid. Yes, I hate it when 9 out of 10 gas guzzlers are driven by only 1 person each and yes, they cause more traffic problems and accidents.

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The Value of Iraqs Oil is Categorically NOT $30 Trillion
Posted by: mpwilliams on Oct 25, 2007 12:04 PM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Holt conjectures "(y)et if, by the same route, Iraq were to resume full and independent control over the world's third-largest proven oil reserves -- 200 to 300 million [sic] barrels of light crude worth as much as $30 trillion at today's prices -- a politically incorrect question might break rudely out of the Internet universe and into the mainstream media world, into, that is, the open: Has the Iraq war been an oil war from the outset?"

Ignoring the doubly mistaken citation of Iraqi oil reserves at 200-300 million bbls -- proven reserves are actually of the order of 100 billion bbls rather than the 200-300 billion bbls that Holt intended to suggest -- I'd like to focus, instead, on the doubly mistaken assertion that the value of those reserves, even if taken to be 300 billion bbls, is anything even remotely approaching $30 trillion at today's oil prices.

If Iraqi oil production could instantaneously be increased to 5 million bopd -- more than doubling current production rates -- and produced indefinitely at that rate without decline, the inflated reserves figure of 300 billion bbls would be recovered in 164 years. Assuming that all sales are transacted at $100 per bbl and discounting the future cash flows at 5 percent, the net present value of all known and suspected Iraqi oil reserves is approximately $3.6 trillion.

Furthermore, this NPV determination is (wildly) optimistic for the simple reasons that neither the costs (CAPEX and OPEX) to establish and sustain this production are considered, nor is the analysis fairly discounted in consideration of the natural, political/geopolitical and operational risks. Finally, the simple fact of the matter is that 5 million bopd Iraqi oil production and $100/bbl oil will not exist in the same world for another twenty years -- if Iraqi oil production were to rise to 5 million bopd today, oil prices would almost immediately collapse, probably to a trading range of $15-25/bbl.

In short, if I was tendering a bid for purchase of ALL the Iraqi oil -- known reserves and oil yet to be discovered -- my number would be somewhat less than $1 trillion.

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» And Peak Oil ? Posted by: mmckinl
» Who would accept your bid? Posted by: thoughtcriminal
So far, it's still all puzzle pieces, no picture.
Posted by: Sojourner on Oct 25, 2007 12:15 PM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Americans don't buy the sales pitch about political reform in Iraq. We know it's about oil. Nothing much changes by dropping the subterfuge.

For the US, the issue is whether American Empire continues to be pursued. So long as it's not my child whose life is at risk, stealing Iraqi oil can seem like a good idea. Under Saddam, Iraqi oil development was left undeveloped in order to keep world oil prices high. That continues still.

China's economic influence and Russia's military expansion will also continue. When Bush came into office the US was the sole superpower. Until Americans recognize that is no longer the case, that Bush's incompetence lost that lead, realism remains remote. With the occupation, Americans bought into fantasy.

Yes, our leadership has made huge mistakes since, but none to compare with the original decision. No one's ever been able to make a silk purse from a sow's ear. One prediction is as good as any other--until the reality of the situation is acknowledged. Bush and his friends continue to enrich themselves--at the expense of all sides.

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» I see the picture Posted by: Constitutionalist75
Bush Losing Grip on Iraq
Posted by: Urgelt on Oct 25, 2007 1:44 PM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
First, a correction. The article says Iraq has "the world's third-largest proven oil reserves -- 200 to 300 million barrels of light crude worth as much as $30 trillion at today's prices."

Uh, no. You're off by three orders of magnitude, Jack. It should read 200 to 300 *billion* barrels.

Proceeding to comment...

It seems Bush is reaping what he sowed; namely, by permitting *any* sort of democratic process in a majority Shiite state, he's got a Shiite government in Iraq now with ties to Iran. And the handwriting is on the wall, visible to that government and to anyone else who bothers to look: the US is inevitably going to fade, and Iran isn't going anywhere. It's right next door.

Go ahead, take a guess as to who will have more influence.

The article is spot-on. The Iraqi government, which has put on a good facsimile of a puppet government but is now growing somewhat more politically assertive as Bush's term comes to a close, is not going to let the oil raiders walk away with 35 year contracts.

That political assertiveness doesn't yet translate into effective rule. It's an open question if it will. The Iraqi government has legitimacy problems hanging out of its wazoo. But if I'm reading the tea leaves right, it's going to go something like this.

We're fading out. Iran is going to want to support a Shiite regime in Iraq. The mullahs on both sides of the border will have a lot to say about what happens next, but I think they'll build on the framework we left them, knock out some walls, build some new ones, do some creative suppression and persecution to make it stick. I don't think they'll kick it all over and start from scratch. Though they may get around to writing a new constitution at some point, I think there will be continuity.

Shiite continuity in the Iraqi government with Iran backing it means no long-term, lucrative oil deals for foreign oil companies.

There's three potential monkey wrenches that might interrupt this scenario, though.

The first is the Kurds, who are pushing hard to conclude their own oil deals independent of the national government. The Kurds know perfectly well that's destabilizing to the Iraqi state. A destabilized Iraq is just what they hope for.

Another, much larger monkey wrench is the US' interest in partitioning Iraq. A partioned Iraq would mean the first little piggy gets roast beef, the second little piggy gets roast chicken, and the third little piggy, the Shiites, gets none. Partioning Iraq might not have quite as much go-juice for the oil companies as they hope for, and it sure as hell won't be popular with the Iraqis, but it would put the Shiites and Iran at arms-length from most of the oil.

The third and largest monkey wrench is a possible US attack on Iran. Such a move would create so much political chaos in the region that it becomes a policy black hole, as far as forecasting goes.

And that's an attraction for the Bushies, if their objective is to secure those oil contracts, whatever the cost. Their doctrine is shock and awe, then send in the contractors to extract wealth - ours and Iraq's.

It's a horribly risky course of action, but this whole adventure has been horribly risky from the start to everyone but its masterminds.

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Is there a war on?
Posted by: aka_bozo on Oct 25, 2007 4:43 PM   
Current rating: 1    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Game two of World Series tonight. Does anything else (other than football, of course) really matter?

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» RE: Is there a war on? Posted by: worldwide65
PEAK OIL IS A GOOD REASON TO COMMIT A FALSE FLAG
Posted by: Missing Piece on Oct 25, 2007 8:56 PM   
Current rating: 1    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Alternet readers, do you think an argument for control of the worlds most military strategic place on earth can be made? I do. Do you think a false flag do get americans to back it is justified? I do.

If 9/11 truthers would acknowledge this, instead of going down one world government, then I think people would listen. Come on man, Peak oil is going to kill off alot of people and do you think Muslim Muhlas are going to feel sorry for us?

Of course the wars not going smoothly and there probably will be another "suicide bombing" to get Iraq's to do as there told, but you have to give some credit to there reasoning. If you were a military strategist, you would know we have to have a presence in an area with over half of the worlds oil.

Listen, if you want to do something good, then build an earth home, and teach others how to get off of oil. Europe is already building towns based on no fossil fuel use. This is what we have to do. Our military industrial complex can not go green, oil is to energy dense and if you don't have it, you don't have a military. Please acknowledge why they committed a false flag so you can get moderates to listen.

Good luck, build an earth home, and go off grid

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