The Mess We've Made in Iraq

By Cenk Uygur, Huffington Post. Posted December 2, 2005.

United States Ambassador to Iraq, Zalmay Khalilzad recently had a very frank conversation with Newsweek's Michael Hirsh. In this conversation, he admitted the United States has opened up a Pandora's Box in Iraq which might create a world with far more problems. He is also the first administration official to acknowledge the Iraq war might lead to a bigger and more dangerous regional war in the Middle East.

And finally, the ambassador seems to concede that the U.S. had no plan in Iraq until four months ago.

This kind of honesty makes you wonder how the ambassador got a job at the administration. But there is a reason behind this frank talk. The ambassador recognizes that if the government doesn't own up to some of the mistakes they've made, they'll have no credibility left -- this is a realization his bosses in the administration still have not come around to. So, he stands a fair chance of being punished for this transgression. No truth slips out of this White House without a price to pay.

Keep in mind, Khalilzad has gone on this campaign to make sure we salvage the mess we made in Iraq. The reason he is speaking out now is because he's afraid that if we leave Iraq now, we will have permanently botched the job. I share his concern, though we might not agree on strategy.

First, the ambassador points out that we might have started an enormous problem we can't keep a lid on if we leave Iraq soon:

A Pandora's box has been opened. The future of the world is at stake here because this region, Iraq, is the defining challenge of our time ... We need to close this in a way that does not produce huge problems down the road, that ultimately produces isolationism at home and a world with far more security problems than at present.

Remember, there was no Pandora's Box in Iraq before we invaded. The U.S. ambassador says it has been opened. Who opened it? Obviously, we did.

He says at the end that we could have a world with "far more security problems" than the present. Why? Because we unleashed sectarian strife between Sunnis and Shiites and allowed al-Qaeda into the country to set up a base of operations. Now that these forces have been put into motion, they will be exceedingly difficult to stop.

The ambassador agrees:

People need to be clear what the stakes are here. If we were to do a premature withdrawal, there could be a Shia-Sunni war here that could spread beyond Iraq. And you could have Iran backing the Shias and Sunni Arab states backing the Sunnis. You could have a regional war that could go on for a very long time, and affect the security of oil supplies. Terrorists could take over part of this country and expand from here. And given the resources of Iraq, given the technical expertise of its people, it will make Afghanistan look like child's play.

Why did we not consider this possibility before we invaded? It makes you despair of democracy. We couldn't muster up 51 senators -- or just one president -- who were smart enough to realize this might happen. Ambassador Khalilzad paints this as a possible out come if we leave Iraq prematurely. But the reality is that it is an outcome that is very likely no matter when we leave Iraq.

If we stay longer, are we really going to be able to resolve the Sunni-Shiite conflict? How does training the Shiite army -- because that is what we are doing right now when we train the "Iraqi" army -- help to resolve this conflict? It doesn't. It makes a Sunni bloodbath more likely. Are we under the delusion that when we strengthen the Shiite majority and then leave the country, that the Shiites will be munificent with their new found power?

By the way, I also love the way the ambassador is not abashed about letting you know this is about the oil. It is clearly not his only concern, but it is the first thing he mentions in his parade of horribles. After all, we must secure the oil.

If we stay, we get caught in the middle of a civil war and attract foreign terrorists who come to fight us. If we leave, the war breaks out immediately, possibly devolves into a region wide conflict and terrorists might have a base that makes Afghanistan look like child's play. In other words the ambassador is saying, if we stay there will be trouble, if we leave it might be double.

He's not alone. Professor Juan Cole, perhaps the preeminent expert on Iraq in the country, has said the same thing to us on The Young Turks. The professor says a complete withdrawal would lead to a disastrous region wide conflict, but that staying only exacerbates some of the problems in the country.

How did we get into this mess? You have your president and vice president to thank. But Ambassador Khalilzad says we shouldn't worry, they now have a plan.

There is an idea that there is no plan, and we believe we do have a plan. We've worked very hard in the last four months to come up with a plan, and we're talking about how to communicate that more effectively to the Congress.

In the last four months?! My God man, what have you people been doing for the last two and a half years? You stumble into a war that opens up a Pandora's Box that could lead to a war that engulfs the Middle East and make Afghanistan look like child's play and you just came up with a plan four months ago?

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