Poll-Watch: Big Convention Bounce for Obama?

As Steve M. over at No More Mister Nice Blog points out, there's been quit a bit of hand-wringing about the degree to which the Democratic Convention is moving Obama's campaign forward. But according to Gallup's daily tracking poll, the head-to-head numbers have swung 8 points in Obama's favor in the past 3 days, and the senator now leads by 6 points nationwide.

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Of course, we'll have to wait until we get some data collected after Obama's speech tonight to see what the real effect is. And we'll have to see who McCain picks as VP -- probably later this evening -- before we know how the dust will settle.

Rasmussen's tracking poll over the same period shows a more modest one-point bump, giving Obama an insignificant lead over McCain (they're tied when "leaners" are included).Most of the polls in the averages are pre-convention, but for what it's worth Real Clear Politics' average of recent polls has Obama up by about 3 points and Pollster's gives Obama a 1.5 point margin.

Here's a look at Pollster.com's national electoral college map, based on the latest state-level polls ...

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There's been so much talk about whether and how the increasing use of cell phones impacts the polling we're seeing -- including cell-phone users without landlines is costly and most polling firms don't do it, or only include cell users to a small degree. A couple of years ago, Pew did a study that suggested there was little difference between the results of samples that included cell-phone users (Gallup, for example) and those that exclusively use land-lines (like Zogby). But there were issues with their results, not least of which was the fact that there were significant differences in the opinions held by people who only had a cell phone. And, of course, the demographics are different: a study by Harris Interactive earlier this year found that not only is there a difference in age, but men are more likely to have only a cell than women, liberals more likely than conservatives and people of color more likely than whites (relative to their population shares).

About one in seven Americans over 18 rely on a cell as their only phone.

I decided to do a little research in AlterNet's offices, and found that among our staff, 8 out of 13 people -- not including a few who were out for various reasons and one who's moving and wasn't sure if she'd get a land-line in the new place -- only had a cell.

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