Poll-Watch: Obama up in 3 Battleground States; Nader Polling Strong

According to an Opinion Research Corporation poll of four crucial battleground states released today by Time Magazine and CNN, Barack Obama is leading John McCain in Nevada, New Mexico and Pennsylvania, while McCain is essentially tied -- with a 1 percent lead that's well within the margin of error -- in Colorado.

Obama's up by 5 points in Nevada and Pennsylvania -- both statistically significant -- and 13 points in New Mexico.

McCain holds a lead among whites in all four states polled.

A significant caveat is that the poll asked about an Obama/Biden ticket versus John McCain, who will pick a running mate after the Dem convention.

Ralph Nader and Libertarian candidate Bob Barr were also offered as potential choices (the Green Party's Cynthia McKinney was not, despite the fact that the Greens have ballot access in all of the states surveyed except for Pennsylvania). Barr pulled in between 1 percent (PA) and 5 percent (NV).Ralph Nader, on the ballot in 40 states and the District of Columbia, is polling at 6 percent in Nevada, 7 percent in Pennsylvania and Colorado and 8 percent in New Mexico. In Nevada, Nader drew most of his support from erstwhile Obama supporters, while in New Mexico he drew equally from both major party candidates.

I include that as a point of interest, but keep in mind that Nader's support in mid-summer polling has not translated into votes come November during either of the last two presidential cycles. As polling expert Mark Blumenthal noted last month, Nader's support averaged 4.5 percent in 19 polls taken during June of 2004 but he (and Peter Camejo) ended up with just 0.38 percent of the popular vote in that year's election.

In 13 polls taken in June of 2000, Nader's support averaged 5 percent, and Pat Buchanan drew 3 percent. That year, Nader won 2.7 percent of the popular vote (no, he didn't cost Al Gore the election, so quit your hatin') and Buchanan took just a third of a percent of the popular vote

I guess a lot of those telling pollsters that they'll vote for a Nader -- or a Barr or Buchanan -- during the Summer are expressing dissatisfaction with the two major parties and want to send a message to that effect. But when the time comes to cast their votes in the Fall, they either go with the major-party candidates or stay home, crack open a cold one and watch football.