Quest for Oil Drives Aid to Colombia

If, as expected, Congress approves the $1.3 billion emergency military aid package for Colombia, that country will become the third largest recipient of U.S. assistance (after Israel and Egypt). In justifying this largess, Clinton Administration officials contend that substantial American aid is needed to enable the Colombian government to overpower the guerrillas and other armed groups that protect illicit drug trafficking. American aid is also needed, it is said, to strengthen democratic institutions in Colombia at a time of great internal turmoil. But there is another reason for U.S. aid that is not openly discussed by U.S. officials: a worry that the turmoil in Colombia will undercut Colombia oil production and hamper White House efforts to reduce U.S. dependence on Middle Eastern oil.

With little attention from the American press, Colombia has emerged in recent years as one of the major oil producers in the Western Hemisphere. According to the U.S. Department of Energy, Colombian oil production rose from only 100,000 barrels per day in the early 1980s to approximately 844,000 barrels in early 1999 -- an increase of nearly 750 percent. Colombian oil exports to the United States have also risen sharply, and today Colombia is this country's seventh largest supplier of petroleum. Many experts believe, moreover, that Colombia harbors large reserves of untapped oil and natural gas.

By themselves, Colombia oil deliveries to the United States are not critical to the U.S. economy. Other suppliers -- notably those located in the Persian Gulf area -- produce far larger quantities of petroleum. But a score of wars in the Middle East have made the United States leery of depending heavily on Persian Gulf supplies. Since taking office in 1993, the Clinton Administration has made the diversification of U.S. oil supplies a major strategic objective. This, in turn, has led the White House to place increased emphasis on oil imports from Africa, the Caspian Sea area and especially Latin America -- with the priority in this region on Colombia and Venezuela.

This priority is clearly evident in the President's annual report on national security strategy. While much of our imported oil comes from the Persian Gulf, he reported in 1997, "we are ... undergoing a fundamental shift in our reliance on imported oil away from the Middle East. Venezuela is now the number one foreign supplier to the United States ... and Venezuela and Colombia are each undertaking new oil production ventures." These ventures will become increasingly important, he added, as domestic oil production declines and the United States becomes increasingly dependent on imported supplies.

Assuming that Colombian oil production continues its upward climb, and new oil fields come on line, Colombia could become a major supplier of petroleum to the United States in the decades ahead. And the United States will need all of the imported oil it can get: While domestic oil production is expected to decline from 9.5 million barrels per day in 1997 to 8.7 million barrels in 2020, U.S. oil consumption is expected to rise during this period from 18 to 25 million barrels per day. This means, of course, that imports will have to grow substantially -- nearly doubling over the next 20 years.

The Administration's effort to reduce dependence on Persian Gulf oil, combined with soaring U.S. demand, has given Colombia (along with Venezuela) greatly increased importance in American strategic calculations. Just as Washington has always placed a high priority on protecting the oil flow from the Middle East, it now seeks to ensure the security of oil supplies from South America. This means, of course, that the United States is paying much closer attention to internal developments in the region's major producing countries. And while conditions in Venezuela's oilfields seem, for now, to be relatively stable, this is hardly the case for Colombia.