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A Peak Oil Prophet Imagines Life in America After Wal-Mart

By Michelle Nijhuis, Grist.org. Posted July 9, 2008.


James Howard Kunstler's new novel describes a small town in upstate NY where a chain of global crises has forced the community to fend for itself.

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Author and social critic James Howard Kunstler, known for predicting our post-peak-oil future in nonfiction works such as The Long Emergency, has also brought his forecasts to life through fiction.

His newest novel, World Made By Hand, describes the near future in a small town in upstate New York -- not unlike the place Kunstler himself lives today -- where a chain of global crises has forced the community to fend for itself.

Despite the tragedy and violence that surround his characters, Kunstler says his vision of the future isn't nearly as grim as it might seem. "I resent the idea that I'm an apocalyptarian," he says. "I'm describing changes that we face, but I'm hardly proposing that it's the end of the world. It may be the end of the Wal-Mart experience, it may be the end of see-the-USA-in-your-Chevrolet -- but that ain't the end of the world." Grist recently spoke with Kunstler about prophesying -- and preparing for -- life after Wal-Mart.


Michelle Nijhuis: So you've wrestled with peak oil, climate change, and disease in nonfiction books. Why did you decide to address them in a novel?

James Howard Kunstler: I wanted to present a very vivid experience for readers, so they could feel what it might be like, sense what it might be like, to live in this post-oil world -- a world in which the tyranny of automobiles is over with, and people are living very directly with the planet and each other. The whole issue of farming and food production comes closer to the center of life, with all of its practical requirements and ceremonies. When you're living in that kind of economy, your society tends to follow the seasons, and a lot of the social content of everyday life is geared to planting, harvesting, and tending -- it's very different from the electronically mediated world of cubicle work.

Many of the characters have transitioned from the everyday world we know today -- so they certainly have a vivid memory of what they call the old times, and they're making the necessary adjustments to the new times.

MN: Did you have this world fully imagined from the start, or did it change in the process of writing?

JHK: There were a lot of things I knew about this world I was going to create, but I discovered a lot of things along the way. For example, it became apparent to me fairly early on that my characters would not all be riding bicycles as in some kind of ecotopia, because they would have trouble getting the materials necessary to make them.

I also realized in the first chapters that the fact that the pavement was so broken up on the roads would have a big effect on how people did things and moved around on the landscape. As far as characters, I'd originally thought that the evangelicals would be the bad guys, but they behaved rather valiantly. I also became very fond of their leader, Brother Job, who's kind of a combination of Boss Hogg and Captain Ahab. He's kind of a darkly comic buffoon, with a deep air of mystery about him. I like that.

MN: The world in World Made By Hand is very grim, but there's some beauty in it, too.

JHK: I'd contest the idea that I'm presenting a wholly grim world. It's a world that's very different, a world in which there are quite a few challenges and quite a few losses, but I'm not at all convinced that the people are necessarily more miserable. Their medical care has become much more primitive, and they work harder, but they're working very directly with their neighbors on things that matter to them. Their ceremonies are much more direct and social in nature -- in other words, they party a lot.

They're also continuing to go through a transition. Their way of life is not settled -- they've left behind the world of happy motoring and consumerism and cheese doodles and Pepsi-Cola, but they've entered a world in which the terrain of everyday life is once again very beautiful. Their best friends are no longer made-up characters on TV shows, they're eating food that they've raised themselves and requires some skill to process, and they're making their own music. So what I'm describing is a world of social riches that we've left behind -- left behind in our eagerness to become the slaves of our electronic gadgets.

MN: It sounds almost like you'd welcome this world.

JHK: Let's say there are elements that I'm not fearful about.

MN: You've described this book as funny, and complained that people don't notice the humor.

JHK: This drives me up the fucking wall! My books are always funny -- even The Long Emergency had some funny moments. Brother Job is a very funny character -- half the things that come out of his mouth are hilarious. A lot of the dialogue is funny, even in the places where there's a lot at stake. I don't know, maybe it's too subtle. In college I was a theater student, and I was very caught up in Samuel Beckett and Harold Pinter. Beckett was always chagrined that the critics didn't regard Waiting for Godot as a laugh riot, but it is -- it's a form of vaudeville.

MN: This novel is set in small-town America, and some of the characters are escaping from greater chaos in and around cities. You've written a lot about the unsustainability of suburbs. But do you see a future for urban life?

JHK: I see it differently from many commentators, who just assume that cities are going to get bigger and that people will flee the suburbs for the cities. I think we're going to see something completely different -- I think we'll see a reversal of the 200-year-long trend of people leaving rural places and small towns for big cities and metroplexes.

I think that the big cities of America -- Houston, Atlanta, Dallas, Washington, D.C., Boston -- these places have attained a scale that is simply not suited for the energy diet of the future, and in my opinion they are going to contract substantially, even while they densify at their centers and around their waterfronts, if they have them.

If there is a huge demographic movement -- and I think there will be -- out of suburbia, eventually it will resolve into people moving into smaller towns, smaller cities, that are scaled appropriately to our energy diet -- and to places that exist in a meaningful relationship with productive land. We're simply going to have to do agriculture differently, no question about it, and the places where this is impossible, like Tucson and Las Vegas, are really going to dry up and blow away. In the Northeast, where I live, many of the small towns and cities have about reached their nadir -- but they have many virtues that are going to become apparent in the years ahead, not least that they have a relationship with water, both for navigation and for drinking.

MN: Are you making changes in your own life to prepare for what you see coming?

JHK: The short answer is yes, I am, but not in any kind of peculiar way. I've been gardening for decades, so that's not new for me, though I might do it in a somewhat different way in the future. I don't work for "da man," so I don't have to escape a cubicle. I've had experience writing books in every method from scribbling in a notebook to composing on a Mac, so I'm confident I could continue to communicate one way or another. I've even put out a local newsletter at times over the past 10 years, so I have experience running a kind of local news bureau.

Most of all, I have a pretty rich and deep social network where I live. I've noticed that American life, for many people, is shockingly lonely. It certainly seems no wonder that people take so much Prozac and Xanax -- the American way of life seems to have become one of the greatest anxiety and depression generators in the history of the world.

MN: What effect do you hope to have on your readers? It doesn't sound like you want them to fight to head off this future.

JHK: I'm really rather worried that we're going to squander our remaining resources on a campaign to sustain the unsustainable. I'm inclined to think that we might be better off yielding to some of these realities that are going to assert themselves, whether we like it or not. That's why I get so annoyed when I go to environmental conferences and the only thing people talk about is how they're going to run cars on chicken fat or French fried potato oil. To me, maintaining the happy motoring system is a waste of our resources, and hugely destructive anyway. I want people to be prepared to accept the changes that really are unavoidable.

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Kunstler is right
Posted by: cjwirth on Jul 9, 2008 4:57 AM   
Current rating: 4    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Here are the facts:

Global oil production is now declining, from 85 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. At the same time demand will increase 14%. This is like a 45% drop in 7 years. No one can reverse this trend, nor can we conserve our way out of this catastrophe. Because the demand for oil is so high, it will always be higher than production; thus the depletion rate will continue until all recoverable oil is extracted.

We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from "outside," and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems.

This is documented in a free 48 page report that can be downloaded, website posted, distributed, and emailed: http://www.peakoilassociates.com/POAnalysis.html

[« Reply to this comment] [Post a new comment »] [Rate this comment: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5]

» RE: Kunstler is right Posted by: richholland
» RE: Kunstler is right Posted by: nochicagoboys
» RE: Kunstler is right Posted by: billgee
» limited thinking Posted by: Iconoclast421
» Those are not facts Posted by: tommy_slothrop
» RE: Kunstler is right Posted by: sunlakedude
» RE: Kunstler is right Posted by: sunlakedude
» RE: Kunstler is right Posted by: Dboy
» RE: Kunstler is right Posted by: sunlakedude
» RE: Kunstler is right Posted by: Dboy
The Times they are Changing
Posted by: billgee on Jul 9, 2008 6:21 AM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Dylan said it, Kunstler echoes it.
Get ready for the Great Transformation
It Aint gonna be easy

[« Reply to this comment] [Post a new comment »] [Rate this comment: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5]

Sounds great but...
Posted by: edith on Jul 9, 2008 6:38 AM   
Current rating: 1    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
I'm all for the ideal of bucolic rural self-sufficient communities. America's greatest days were in the late 18th and early 19th centuries when this is how most Americans lived. (Oh please don't start in with slavery and the Indians. Most people in the general population, including black youth, care!)

But Kunstler's nature and earth-based example won't work for the gadget, computer, auto-bound inhabitants of our cities and suburbs. Ironically, the so-called low incomers will be the most resistant to "going back to the land". They expect govt benefits, not opportunity. I'm sure Ted Kennedy's dying words, (and I do feel bad for him), will be "health and fuel subsidies".

On the contrary, Kunstler's vision is radical, which is the genuine American vision of self-sufficiency. Thoreau and the great literary environmentalists like Muir, Berry and Stegner (who are truly conservative) are the tradition Kunstler apparently tries to continue. I look forward to reading Kunstler's book.

Unfortunately, that's not the Barry Hussein/Hilary Clinton/Jesse Jackson view of life. No pain for anyone ever is the Liberal Lie that prevails in the Mainstream Media and spouted in well-turned empty phrases by its political favorites like BO.

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» RE: Sounds great but... Posted by: yale
» RE: Sounds great but... Posted by: Dboy
» RE: Sounds great but... Posted by: yale
» RE: Sounds great but... Posted by: Dboy
Scientists find bugs that eat waste and excrete petrol - PART I
Posted by: jwverez on Jul 9, 2008 6:52 AM   
Current rating: 1    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]


Silicon Valley is experimenting with bacteria that have been genetically altered to provide ‘renewable petroleum’

Chris Ayres

“Ten years ago I could never have imagined I’d be doing this,” says Greg Pal, 33, a former software executive, as he squints into the late afternoon Californian sun. “I mean, this is essentially agriculture, right? But the people I talk to – especially the ones coming out of business school – this is the one hot area everyone wants to get into.”

He means bugs. To be more precise: the genetic alteration of bugs – very, very small ones – so that when they feed on agricultural waste such as woodchips or wheat straw, they do something extraordinary. They excrete crude oil.

Unbelievably, this is not science fiction. Mr Pal holds up a small beaker of bug excretion that could, theoretically, be poured into the tank of the giant Lexus SUV next to us. Not that Mr Pal is willing to risk it just yet. He gives it a month before the first vehicle is filled up on what he calls “renewable petroleum”. After that, he grins, “it’s a brave new world”.

Mr Pal is a senior director of LS9, one of several companies in or near Silicon Valley that have spurned traditional high-tech activities such as software and networking and embarked instead on an extraordinary race to make $140-a-barrel oil (£70) from Saudi Arabia obsolete. “All of us here – everyone in this company and in this industry, are aware of the urgency,” Mr Pal says.
Related Links

* Biofuel: a tankful of weed juice

* The arithmetic of crude oil

What is most remarkable about what they are doing is that instead of trying to reengineer the global economy – as is required, for example, for the use of hydrogen fuel – they are trying to make a product that is interchangeable with oil. The company claims that this “Oil 2.0” will not only be renewable but also carbon negative – meaning that the carbon it emits will be less than that sucked from the atmosphere by the raw materials from which it is made.

LS9 has already convinced one oil industry veteran of its plan: Bob Walsh, 50, who now serves as the firm’s president after a 26-year career at Shell, most recently running European supply operations in London. “How many times in your life do you get the opportunity to grow a multi-billion-dollar company?” he asks. It is a bold statement from a man who works in a glorified cubicle in a San Francisco industrial estate for a company that describes itself as being “prerevenue”.

Inside LS9’s cluttered laboratory – funded by $20 million of start-up capital from investors including Vinod Khosla, the Indian-American entrepreneur who co-founded Sun Micro-systems – Mr Pal explains that LS9’s bugs are single-cell organisms, each a fraction of a billionth the size of an ant. They start out as industrial yeast or nonpathogenic strains of E. coli, but LS9 modifies them by custom-de-signing their DNA. “Five to seven years ago, that process would have taken months and cost hundreds of thousands of dollars,” he says. “Now it can take weeks and cost maybe $20,000.”

Because crude oil (which can be refined into other products, such as petroleum or jet fuel) is only a few molecular stages removed from the fatty acids normally excreted by yeast or E. coli during fermentation, it does not take much fiddling to get the desired result.

For fermentation to take place you need raw material, or feedstock, as it is known in the biofuels industry. Anything will do as long as it can be broken down into sugars, with the byproduct ideally burnt to produce electricity to run the plant.

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Scientists find bugs that eat waste and excrete petrol - PART II
Posted by: jwverez on Jul 9, 2008 6:54 AM   
Current rating: 1    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
The company is not interested in using corn as feedstock, given the much-publicised problems created by using food crops for fuel, such as the tortilla inflation that recently caused food riots in Mexico City. Instead, different types of agricultural waste will be used according to whatever makes sense for the local climate and economy: wheat straw in California, for example, or woodchips in the South.

Using genetically modified bugs for fermentation is essentially the same as using natural bacteria to produce ethanol, although the energy-intensive final process of distillation is virtually eliminated because the bugs excrete a substance that is almost pump-ready.

The closest that LS9 has come to mass production is a 1,000-litre fermenting machine, which looks like a large stainless-steel jar, next to a wardrobe-sized computer connected by a tangle of cables and tubes. It has not yet been plugged in. The machine produces the equivalent of one barrel a week and takes up 40 sq ft of floor space.

However, to substitute America’s weekly oil consumption of 143 million barrels, you would need a facility that covered about 205 square miles, an area roughly the size of Chicago.

That is the main problem: although LS9 can produce its bug fuel in laboratory beakers, it has no idea whether it will be able produce the same results on a nationwide or even global scale.

“Our plan is to have a demonstration-scale plant operational by 2010 and, in parallel, we’ll be working on the design and construction of a commercial-scale facility to open in 2011,” says Mr Pal, adding that if LS9 used Brazilian sugar cane as its feedstock, its fuel would probably cost about $50 a barrel.

Are Americans ready to be putting genetically modified bug excretion in their cars? “It’s not the same as with food,” Mr Pal says. “We’re putting these bacteria in a very isolated container: their entire universe is in that tank. When we’re done with them, they’re destroyed.”

Besides, he says, there is greater good being served. “I have two children, and climate change is something that they are going to face. The energy crisis is something that they are going to face. We have a collective responsibility to do this.”

Power points

— Google has set up an initiative to develop electricity from cheap renewable energy sources

— Craig Venter, who mapped the human genome, has created a company to create hydrogen and ethanol from genetically engineered bugs

— The US Energy and Agriculture Departments said in 2005 that there was land available to produce enough biomass (nonedible plant parts) to replace 30 per cent of current liquid transport fuels

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Making Renewable, Carbon-Neutral Oil — From Algae
Posted by: jwverez on Jul 9, 2008 6:56 AM   
Current rating: 1    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]

Making Renewable, Carbon-Neutral Oil — From Algae
By Chuck Squatriglia EmailMay 29, 2008 | 5:45:25 PMCategories: Biofuel

Hirescrude_2

A San Diego start-up says it is using algae to make oil that can be refined into gasoline and other fuels that are both renewable and carbon-neutral, and it plans to produce 10,000 barrels a day within five years.

That’s a fraction of the 20 million or so barrels of petroleum the United States consumes each day, but Sapphire Energy says “green crude” production could ramp up to a level sufficient to ease our dependence on foreign oil, if not end it altogether.

Company CEO Jason Pyle says the algal oil is chemically identical to light sweet crude and compatible with America’s $1.5 trillion petroleum infrastructure, making it a direct replacement for oil. Although the algal fuels refined from it emit as much carbon dioxide as conventional fuels, the company says the emissions are offset by the photosynthetic process that uses sunlight, water and C02 to create algal crude.

“At the very worst, it’s carbon neutral,” Pyle says, calling the fuels a “benchmark for an entire new industry” and “a paradigm change.”

Energy experts and air quality regulators say they’ll withhold judgment on those claims until they’ve seen a production-to-combustion analysis of the fuel’s emissions. But they say Sapphire could be on to something.

Making fuel from algae is nothing new, and a lot of organizations, from the smallest start-up to the biggest oil companies, are trying to find the best way to do it. But most of the effort has been on replacing diesel fuel or kerosene. Sapphire wants to replace petroleum.

“We designed it to be a completely fungible product with crude oil,” Pyle says. He says the company has refined its algal crude into 91-octane gasoline, diesel fuel and kerosene chemically identical to conventional fuels. He wouldn’t disclose how the process works or what it costs but said it is competitive with deep-water oil drilling and extracting petroleum from tar sands.

Sapphire also avoids the food-for-fuel debate that has plagued crop-based biofuels because it uses algae and works on non-arable land with non-potable water. Pyle wouldn’t say where Sapphire plans to build the demonstration plant it will have running later this year, but it’s reportedly working in Oklahoma and may locate its facilities in the South and Southwest. It hopes to have a full-scale plant up and running within five years, producing 10,000 barrels of green crude a day. The company has lined up more than $50 million in funding from investors like ARCH Venture Partners.

Ramping up to that level of production without killing the algae can be tricky, one expert said, and the environmental impact of green crude remain to be seen. Even if it is carbon neutral, the algal fuels will emit pollutants that contribute to smog and ozone, says Don Anair of the Union of Concerned Scientists.

“You’re still going to get combustion emissions. You aren’t eliminating those with algal fuels,” he says, echoing a point the California Air Resources Board made. Still, Anair is cautiously optimistic.

“The fact that there is a lot of interest in finding a better way to fuel our transportation system is encouraging,” he says. “This is one avenue to pursue that has very good potential.”

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» RE: Wired Magazine? Hah! Posted by: Jasonix
ALL THE PEAK OIL ASSHOLES SHOULD SHUT THE FUCK UP AND GIVE NEW IDEAS A CHANCE !!!!
Posted by: jwverez on Jul 9, 2008 7:05 AM   
Current rating: 1    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
THANKS TO STIFLING NEW IDEAS, INNOVATIONS, AND EVEN INVENTIONS IN SCIENCE ESPECIALLY IN THE PHYSICS REALM WHICH HAS BEEN LANGUISHING THE MOST, THE "PEAK OIL" OPPORTUNISTIC ASSHOLES ARE CRYING "WAH !! WAH !!" . ASK THEM ABOUT OTHER IDEAS INCLUDING ALTERNATIVE RENEWABLES AND THEY'LL TRY TO MARGINALIZE THEM. THEY'RE NO DIFFERENT FROM THE APOCALYPTIC EVANGELICAL FUNDIES OF THE RIGHTWING CRYING "WAH !! WAH !! IT'S THE END OF THE WORLD ! WAH !! WAH !!" I AM SO FUCKING SICK AND TIRED OF AMERICA BEING A BUNCH OF LAZY IGNORANT ASSHOLES OUTSOURCING TO OTHER NATIONS AND INSOURCING THEM VIA BRAIN DRAINS ALL THE WHILE GOING AGAINST PEOPLE WHO ACTUALLY TRY TO HELP ! IF IT WERE NOT FOR THE NEW IDEAS, INNOVATIONS, AND EVEN INVENTIONS IN THE 18TH, 19TH, AND THE 20TH CENTURY UNTIL THE 1980S AND AFTER, THIS COUNTRY WOULD BE IN NOWHERE LAND !! NOW SHUT THE FUCK UP AND GIVE OTHER IDEAS A FUCKING CHANCE ALREADY !!

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» Civilised Posted by: edgeofnowhere
Intentional Communities
Posted by: carrotwax on Jul 9, 2008 8:24 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
I was lucky enough to stay at an intentional community for a week and saw how happy people are.

These are true communities, where for the most part people work together in an area and have much communal property. It isn't communism, and it's very practical. It's also filled with happier people as the level of connection between people is far higher.

They are a vision of what will work when we need to go back to more localized work. Twin Oaks is a great one; a couple books have been written about it.

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Day of the Triffids
Posted by: davidg on Jul 9, 2008 8:39 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
HOwever, metaphoric, John Wyndham's DAy of the TRiffids had a few good ideas. As Chris Hedges has said in another Alternet essay, literature can be very provocative and enlightening about our current dilemmas. I just hope the thinking folks don't get into too many philosophical wrangles and destroy their own good intentions by fighting with each other over differences...the progressives do have that tendency. Good for Kunstler, I'll read it.

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life after capitalism
Posted by: siamdave on Jul 9, 2008 9:26 AM   
Current rating: 1    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
- Green Island - but like any good cancer, the trolls fight back - don't miss the dark horse read of the summer ...

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An unfortunate reality
Posted by: edgeofnowhere on Jul 9, 2008 9:39 AM   
Current rating: 4    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
It does not seem that we are grasping the reality of our situation here. We continue to look for hope in some sort of technological miracle or breakthrough that will replace our liquid carbon fuels, thereby enabling us to continue our present way of life. Instead, we should realize the futility of the "cheap oil" society and search for new ways to CHANGE our thinking and prepare to cope with the impending natural and societal upheaval that is rapidly approaching. We need to think about changing our NEED for transportation, both of ourselves and our goods. In fact, we need to re-evaluate the very need for those "goods." There is no hope for the world as we know it, including our carbon based consumer driven societies to survive, so there is no choice.

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» RE: An unfortunate reality Posted by: Smackback
bansui
Posted by: jlowelld on Jul 9, 2008 10:56 AM   
Current rating: 3    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
I share Kunstler's assertion that efforts to maintain the current energy/economic system, (based on a dominant capital/industrial model), are misguided and unsustainable. What is necessary is the creation of a working model of sustainability, one which could be referenced as a guide for change while the current model continues its rapid decline. However, until the current cultural model completely collapses, that is becomes unable to provide a minimum of economic security, the media (controlled by wealthy interests) will continue to push the myth of "the American Dream." Without tangible alternatives, this mythology will continue to maintain credibility as the "safest port" in the coming storm of societal/economic collapse--ergo, the need to create alternative models. The collapse of the dominant capital model of culture should be seen as an opportunity for the rise of sustainable, egalitarian democracy--not a cause for despair!

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» RE: bansui Posted by: Last Chance
RE: Kuntstler's world not the only one possible.
Posted by: Dboy on Jul 10, 2008 5:12 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
I see you like the Dystopian films..me too. I'm betting on these as being the most likely outcomes (notice that all of these have shades of biopunk in them):

Code 46

Children of Men

Dark Angel

THX-1138

Blade Runner is of course a favorite film but I think there are more misses than hits in BR when it comes to likely futures. I think biopunk is coming soon (home-brew genetic engineering, rogue science), but the Nexus-6 is a LONG way away.

The mass-tracking of individuals could very well lead to a Brave New World situation where groups of people just "opt-out" and choose live outside the "law" in rogue communities...post-modern Amish.

One big concern I have with companies like Monsanto is the knowledge consolidation(the mega-corps gaining complete control over advanced technologies)...this will be what drives open source genetic engineering projects--making that knowledge free for everyone. It might not be just genetic manipulation; that hidden knowledge could also be around topics such as advanced propagation techniques. I don't think that GM foods are evil by definition, I just think that it should be used for truly beneficial purposes such as increasing crop yields, rather than being used as a way to protect intellectual property.

Dboy

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Kunstler Doesn't Have It All Right
Posted by: sunlakedude on Jul 9, 2008 4:44 PM   
Current rating: 1    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
As a follower of Kunstler for well over a year I was shocked to read his interview with The University Bookman. There is a link to the interview on Kunstler's website. In it he opinionates that gays and lesbians are "gender confused" and the gay rights movement and discussion thereof does not belong in the public sphere. He, of course, thinks that the only thing we should be concerned with is our coming energy crisis and all other issues can and should be pushed aside. So, in addition to calling gays and lesbians "gender confused" and not worthy of considering, he also thinks that warrantless wiretapping and our involvement in Iraq are not important. In fact, it seems that he supports both our invasion and the administration's illegal spying on American citizens. If you don't believe it, just read his website. I bought one of his books, The Long Emergency , but I won't be buying any more.

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» RE: Kunstler's rightwing views Posted by: sunlakedude
Mafiacrime
Posted by: mkcrime on Jul 9, 2008 6:45 PM   
Current rating: 3    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
http://www.mafiacrime.org/r.php?id=5320

Come check out Mafia crime!!

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Kunstler's Record Not Good
Posted by: GreenDistantStar on Jul 10, 2008 8:11 PM   
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Remember all the arm-wavers and hand-wringers who told us all that Y2K was the end of the world?

http://kunstler.com/mags_y2k.html

Sound familiar? I guess Mr Kunstler has found a new apocalypse.

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Sounds like Malawi.
Posted by: mjabele on Jul 10, 2008 9:23 PM   
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I spent almost a year living in a small village in Malawi back in 2002. My patients there were definitely much more "in touch" with their local environment - they grew their own food, processed it by themselves, built their own homes with local materials, and in general had far less access to higher technology than your average American.

And yes, I'll admit they also lived more neighborly, intertwined lives than today's average suburban American. Church services, weddings, funerals, holidays - these were the events that brought them together and, in contrast to our own reliance on TV and the Internet, led them to exchange information and opinions.

Of course, they also suffered from illness and died much more frequently and prematurely, and often much more gruesomely, than we do. I still remember the woman who succumbed to uncontrolled tetanic convulsions in front of me, before I could arrange transport to a tertiary hospital with the capability to intubate. Perhaps even more vividly, the 10-year-old boy who slowly asphyxiated in our hospital over a period of weeks as progressive HIV-related Kaposi's sarcoma slowly enveloped his ribcage from below, cutting off his ability to breathe and suffusing his body with pain which we were only able to control with periodic morphine infusions. Was it spiritually edifying for his parents to see him die this way - a death "un-interfered with" by technology, not dissimilar to the albeit quicker and less horrific deaths of other children who came to us too late and died of measles, malaria, meningitis, malnutrition, and other causes on our hospital wards during the time I was there? Perhaps. On the other hand, was it worth the final price, in terms of a child's suffering, and parents' grief? I'm not nearly so sure.

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I have issues with Kunstler on two levels.....
Posted by: mjabele on Jul 10, 2008 9:25 PM   
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1) his apparent view that the physical/mental deprivation resulting from a "de-technologized" society will somehow be more than canceled out by the net benefits of increased socialization and spiritual "closeness to nature", and 2) the implication that the ONLY way for societies to achieve better "socialization" is to "de-technologize".

In 2000-2001, before going to Malawi, I spent a year working in Abkhazia, a territory of the former USSR which had, in 1992-93, fought a vicious and highly destructive war of independence which resulted in a thorough destruction of most of the country's previously well-"technologized" infrastructure. In a sense, Abkhazia represented a "test case" for Kunstler's post-apocalyptic future - a country whose population had experienced the cultural benefits and drawbacks participation in the present-day technologized world, followed by a forceful divorce from that world and return to a more primitive existence in far closer and more direct contact with their immediate social and natural environment.

Two points come to mind. The first is that, like Italy, Abkhazia was not a particularly "de-socialized" society BEFORE the 1992 war, and consequently didn't change much "for the better", so to speak, afterward. I know this because my wife is from Abkhazia, and can "compare notes", so to speak, from before and after. Most societies in the Caucasus, regardless of their level of technology, have ALWAYS been deeply interconnected via ties of friendship and family, and remain so today - representing a pattern which has existed for centuries, similar to what seems to be the case for many of the "Latin" societies of southern Europe, and one which doesn't seem to have been influenced negatively by the introduction of things like television, electronic gadgetry, or the Internet, in contrast to Kunstler's apparent thesis. The contrast with our society, in other words, seems to be based on cultural factors other than application of technology - I'm not sure what factors, exactly, but the correlation seems to be more obscure than what he suggests.

Secondly, I'm highly doubtful the vast majority of people currently living in Abkhazia would agree with Kunstler's apparent view that their lives must have somehow gained "spiritual value" as a result of the material deprivation resulting from the war - or alternatively, assuming that some feel this might be the case after all, that this was somehow "worth the price" in terms of suffering and ongoing hardship. Based on my own conversations, my suspicion is they'd regard such views as little more than the fantasies of an armchair philosophizer with little or no actual experience of sustained hardship; certainly the current situation is not one they want to see continue, which is another way of saying that they don't view the "morally edifying" benefits to be worth the crasser, more "materialistic" drawbacks.

Whether or not one would view such "ordinary" people as being as eloquent or learned as Mr. Kunstler, I think their views, derived from real-life experience, ought to perhaps carry at least some weight when debating with those who argue for the supposed net virtues and benefits of a "post-apocalyptic" society.

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