How Obama Could Win Over Seniors

Conventional wisdom considers senior citizens to be prime McCain turf. After all, throughout the primaries Barack Obama has polled more strongly among younger voters. A recent Washington Post/ABC News Poll shows Obama leading McCain overall 49% to 45%. But he trailed by 22% among white seniors while he lead two to one among voters under 30. Senior voters are especially important to McCain in swing states with older populations like Ohio, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Florida, Iowa and Michigan.

McCain has to hang on to senior voters to have any shot at victory. But Obama can substantially increase his vote share among senior citizens, and if he succeeds, he can turn the November election into a Democratic landslide. Here's how he might do it:

Challenges To Be Overcome:

1). Unfamiliarity and Resistance to Change. The core message of the Obama campaign is change. The problem is that seniors as a group are more resistant to change than young people. McCain, on the other hand, is an "old comfortable shoe." The key to neutralizing this natural McCain advantage is to convince seniors that Obama wants "safe change" -- that he himself is "safe" and predictable. Three things are most important in making seniors feel "safe":

* Most importantly, Obama needs to convince seniors that he shares their values. This will play out especially in the areas of national security, race and economic security -- more on those later. But Obama's willingness to discuss values -- not just policies -- will be very important as well. His Father's Day sermon on the responsibilities of fathers is a good example. So is his frequent appeal to values like unity and hope.

* The more seniors know about his family and his history, the more they like him. Obama is a great father, with lovely children. That's a big deal to seniors. The more they get to know him personally on daytime talk shows, and through personal profiles and events in their communities, the more they will come to feel he is "safe."

* Endorsements by other seniors -- especially their neighbors. All people are pack animals, we want our friends and neighbors to approve of what we do and think. Senior celebrity endorsers can help. But if Democrats organize a major program where seniors communicate their support for Obama directly to other seniors, that more than anything else, will make them feel that Obama is "safe."

2). National Security. Like most Americans, seniors share the view that we need a new direction in our foreign policy, and they oppose the Iraq War. But polls show that many think McCain may be more trustworthy than Obama as a leader in world affairs. Just as importantly, seniors are the major audience for Republican attempts to make Obama look "unpatriotic." Three steps are most important here:

* Democrats should not attempt to "soften" their opposition to the Iraq War by trying to sound more like Republicans. We need to be clear that the Bush-McCain policies have failed precisely because they have made America less safe, weakened our military, strengthened our adversaries and isolated America in the world. Seniors fear that Obama might not be "strong" enough personally in dealing with world issues. He -- and Democrats generally -- need to show them that we are "strong" by standing up forcefully for our own view of the policy that can make us safer -- and that we are more patriotic in that regard than reckless right-wingers who have in fact made us less secure.

* The "cost of war" frame is particularly powerful with seniors. They agree strongly that it is outrageous that Bush and McCain have spent hundreds of billions on the War in Iraq, but can't find the money to pay for health care.

* While most Americans agree with Democrats on the policy in Iraq, they still believe by a slight margin that McCain is better equipped to deal with Iraq as president. Democrats need to repeatedly go right at McCain's competency and judgment when it comes to Iraq -- to remind them that his judgment about going to war in Iraq in the first place was wrong.