Now That the Al-Sadr Cease Fire Is in Peril, What's Next for Iraq?

Ah, the latest battles in the never-ending nightmare that is Iraq. The only question ever being, slow disaster or fast disaster?

As we see how this will play out, let me speculate based not on my extensive knowledge of religion, culture, foreign language or history. For I claim expertise over none of these things. But, like most of you, I've lived under seven years, nine weeks and two days of the the George W. Bush Administration and how it spins everything in Iraq. So let me predict the following:

1. Maliki will strut about like Bush on a caffeine bender. An Iraqi general here and there will be fired, as will random police officials.

2. Al Sadr will be as inscrutable as ever, hinting at belligerence while simultaneously extending olive branches (may not be a prediction as it is already happening).

3. Many more will die than initially reported. Not all that many will be from the Mahdi Army -- and those that do will be replaced easily and then some.

4. The Bush Administration will cheer anything that looks like shooting or blowing crap up. Chuckles Krauthammer will cry tears of joy and write it is time to bomb Iran.

5. There will be loud initial claims of victory by the Iraqi government and louder ones by Bush. These proclamations will at least last long enough to take us past the next round of Petraeus' testimony before Congress. After all, any one who dares question our impending awesomest victory over the evilizers ever is a two bit America-hatin',YouTube snippet preachin', hater!

6. Look for Glenn Reynolds to be admitted into Betty Ford after overdosing on too many "hehs" and "indeeds".

7. All the "wise geniuses" who started this mess will toss out compliments on how the Iraqi Army performed and it's all downhill from here as long as we keep 150,000 soldiers in Iraq forever. Look for various Kagans to be strategically deployed at the shows with the best caterering. Look for Michael O'Hanlon to demand a Lombardi Trophy.

8. All politicians will forced by Wolf Blitzer's control-top beard to concede that surely by now the Surge worked and cured everything from Iraq to tooth decay and the issue must be ceded to the all-knowning, John "Kiss the Chef" McCain and his extensive foreign policy experience centered around blowing stuff up.