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Climate Change: The World's Biggest Security Threat

By Nicole Itano, Christian Science Monitor. Posted March 18, 2008.


Unchecked climate change could spark instability in energy-producing states and lead to the collapse of fragile states around the world.

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Rising sea levels are what some nations fear most about global warming. But in Europe, climate change is likely to mean a new flood of immigrants from Africa and other poorer countries, according to a new report.

That was one of the issues before the heads of state from the 27-member European Union as they gathered in Brussels Thursday and Friday to address climate change and, in particular, the security threats it raises.

Unchecked climate change could not only cause a flood of new environmental migrants to Europe, it could spark instability in energy-producing states and lead to the collapse of fragile states around the world, says the report by EU foreign-policy chief Javier Solana and Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the European commissioner for external relations. Climate change, the report says, is a "threat multiplier" which "intensifies existing trends, tensions, and instability."

European leaders say they have an important role to play in leading the world towards an agreement to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions -- and that's on this meeting's agenda, too. But increasingly, EU leaders are also seeing the need to prepare for the impacts of climate change at home. Meeting those challenges, analysts say, may require greater coordination of foreign policies.

"There's really a new approach and perspective developing," says Dirk Messner, director of the German Advisory Council on Global Change. "Climate change has been addressed until very recently as an environmental problem. ... But dangerous climate change, beyond 2 degrees or so, will result in a destabilization processes around the world."

In 2007, the Solana report notes, all but one of the emergencies for which the UN appealed for humanitarian aid had climate dimensions. And new trading routes are opening in the Arctic as the polar ice caps melt, shifting the balance of power in the region.

Little in the report is new. In fact, it echoes a widely cited 2007 study by 11 retired American admirals and generals issued by CNA Corporation, a Virginia think tank.

But the stark warning from such high-ranking EU officials is likely to invigorate the debate in Europe about the links between climate and security -- as well as highlight the urgency of coming to some sort of global agreement on reducing greenhouse-gas emissions.

Europe, experts say, is not likely to experience climate-related instability within its own territory -- the brunt of the impact of global warming is likely to fall on the world's poor. But on the Continent's borders are regions, such as North Africa and the Middle East, that are both political fragile and acutely vulnerable to climate change.

"Migration is the real biggie," says Jeffrey Mazo, an expert on climate and security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. "What's causing the migration is food insecurity and water insecurity and general insecurity in developing nations that don't have the infrastructure to cope with climate change impacts."


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Nicole Itano is an Italian correspondent for the Christian Science Monitor.

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View:
Organism eats CO2, and produces fuel!
Posted by: dobermanmacleod on Mar 18, 2008 2:42 AM   
Current rating: 2    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Cutting emissions is ridiculous, because the CO2 will soon be used as fuel, and we can remove the CO2 from the air profitably. Sound like science fiction? Try science fact:

"Still as ambitious as ever, (Craig Venter) just announced at the TED conference: "We have modest goals of replacing the whole petrochemical industry and becoming a major source of energy, we think we will have fourth-generation fuels in about 18 months, with CO2 as the fuel stock." What’s this fourth-generation fuel he’s talking about? Biofuel alternatives to oil are third-generation.

The next step is life forms that feed on CO2 and give off fuel such as methane gas as waste, according to Venter."

– "Geneticist Craig Venter Wants to Create Fuel from CO2," TreeHugger.com

Naturally evolved organisms already exist that eat CO2 and excrete fuel, but the limiting factor is getting enough CO2 from the air. Air is much less than 1% CO2 now. The efficiency can be improved using genetic engineering, and a suicide gene added to assure the GMO couldn’t live outside a lab.

Or,

Expensively cutting our emissions fast and drastically is ridiculous, because sulfate particles can be injected into the upper atmosphere, reducing the amount of solar radiation that strikes the Earth:

"The Panel (on Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming) calculated that adding stratospheric aerosol dust to the stratosphere would cost just pennies per ton of CO2 mitigated."

–"The Incredible Economics of Geoengineering"

The total cost would be around 10 billion dollars a year, and using engineered particles could lower the cost 90%!

Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations requires a 60-80% cut in CO2 emissions worldwide, a wildly expensive prescription. Ironically, CO2 in the air could be an asset. Besides, there is a very inexpensive alternative mitigation strategy.

It is an unfeasible strategy to cut world-wide emissions so fast and drastically that either abrupt climate change or runaway global warming are avoided.

Besides, carbon sinks will become carbon emitters as it warms, not only significantly reducing the amount of CO2 nature removes from the air, but dramatically increasing the amount of natural greenhouse gas emissions that go into the air, overwhelming any cuts we make.

Now, I’ll add another reason: it is ridiculous.

It is ridiculous to make expensive emission cuts to remove a potential asset from the air.

Brad Arnold
www.myspace.com/dobermanmacleod

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» yeah, like the ethanol 'fix' Posted by: KaptainSpiffy
The World's Climate Has Always Changed - It's Perfectly Normal
Posted by: opmoc on Mar 18, 2008 4:43 AM   
Current rating: 2    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
We can't stop climate change. It's bigger than us. We don't have the capability.

The difference now, is that climate change is being used in a similar way that the war on terror is being used by governments and the media - to frighten populations to accept World Government.

I used to think most of the conspiracy theories re the Illuminati, Bilderberg Group, Council on Foreign Relations, Club of Rome etc were daft. I didn't see any reasons why the very rich and powerful shouldn't have regular meetings to discuss World Policy and try and influence it. It seems perfectly normal that if you have such power and influence that you use it.

Well they are using it, and the use of the "Fear" of Climate Change is documented as one of the keys to achieve World Government.

Now World Government in principle - might seem quite a good idea. No borders, no disputes, no wars etc and enforced environmental protection. It's obviously what is needed to save the planet from these aweful human beings who are destroying it. It will be a New World Order - like a socialist nirvana.

The problem is that socialist nirvana's never work - well they work for the tiny elite in control - by they become complete tryanny and slavery for everyone else.

At the end of the day the powerful elite are just human beings. They aren't any more sensible than the rest of us - they just happen to be in a position to be able to dictate their ideas by controlling both the media and governments.

Its effectively the same techniques as used by religion. For thousands of years most of the population of the world have believed in religions based on complete nonsense. They have had no doubt in their mind that their faith was true. They constructed the most magnificant buildings and works of art - and many died horrendous deaths in the name of their faith.

Climate Change is the new religion and is even more deadly. World government will not only result in tryanny it will also result in massive forced depopulation.

Welcome to the Brave New World - most of it is already here and we are sleepwalking the final steps towards mass genocide and enslavement.

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Whatever happened to the Age of Aquarius and Kum-ba-ya...
Posted by: veggiegrrrl on Mar 18, 2008 6:51 AM   
Current rating: 1    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Whatever happened to the Age of Aquarius and Kum-ba-ya...???

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"Free trade zone" raises a red flag
Posted by: ebishirl on Mar 18, 2008 6:55 AM   
Current rating: 3    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
You're right, opmoc: I believe climate change is now being viewed as an opportunity by the powerful to further the GWOT (global war on terror) and their own interests.

Naomi Klein offers an eye-opening perspective into how climate disasters might prove to be economic/political boons for the powerful in "Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism." She notes that one of the things that has, over the past 35-plus years, followed every major disaster (natural, economic, etc.) affecting a developing country is an imposition of free trade terms by the IMF, World Bank, USAID, etc.

That's why I question Sarkozy's motives with his proposal for a Mediterranean Union that includes new free trade policies. The article's author is right: those policies haven't yet lifted a majority of people in developing countries out of poverty; rather, they've greatly benefited a small minority, increasing the economic disparities of the nation.

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My Perspective...
Posted by: dave16 on Mar 18, 2008 7:06 AM   
Current rating: 2    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Please see www.discussrace.com

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» Spammer! (NMI) Posted by: fringedweller
» Nah. Posted by: Beck
Regardless of the cause, it is OUR EXTINCTION
Posted by: AsteroidMiner on Mar 18, 2008 3:39 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Regardless of the cause, it is OUR EXTINCTION that
we must prevent. Global warming extinctions have
happened before, caused by supervolcanoes.
This time it is burning fossil fuel, starting with coal
more than 200 years ago. See: www.RealClimate.org
There is nobody else who is going to save us other than
ourselves. There is an alternative for a few of us. See:
http://lifeboat.com So, do you choose to live or die?

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Shifting climate/climate change = collapse of agriculture
Posted by: AsteroidMiner on Mar 18, 2008 3:44 PM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Downloaded FROM: Environmental Defense
http://environmentaldefenseblogs.org/
climate411/2008/01/14/global_winds/

This post is by James Wang, Ph.D., a climate scientist at Environmental Defense.

You may have heard about the persistent droughts in the western U.S., Australia,
and other regions. The Upper Colorado River Basin is experiencing a protracted,
multi-year drought that started in 1999. Australia's record drought is threatening
the livelihood of traditional farmers and ranchers.

At what point does a passing drought become a permanent shift to desert
conditions, and why would such a thing happen?

It can happen because of global warming. Climate change can alter global winds,
the strength and location of high and low pressure systems, and other climate
factors.

.........shortened.........Graphics and URLs omitted.

Global winds shape the Earth's climate, determining - in broad strokes - which
areas are tropical, desert, or temperate. Here's a simplified overview of how it
works.

The Sun heats the Earth most intensely in the tropical zone around the equator. The
heated air rises, cools, and then dumps its moisture as rain. That's why there are
rain forests in the tropics.

The now drier air is forced by the continuously rising equatorial air to move
towards the temperate latitudes on either side of the equator. At roughly 30° N and
S - called the "horse latitudes" - it can move no further due to the Earth’s rotation,
and settles to the surface. As the air sinks, it compresses and warms, creating hot,
rain-free conditions. This circulation pattern, called a Hadley cell, is why the
deserts of the world are located just poleward of the tropics, to the north and south.

Poleward of the desert belt, strong, high-altitude winds known as the jet streams
flow from west to east, carrying large storms with them. These mid-latitude,
temperate-region storms are an important source of rain and snow, especially
during the winter season. Much of the world's population lives in the temperate
region. It includes most of the U.S. and southern Canada, most of Europe, East
Asia, southern South America, southern Africa, and southern Australia and New
Zealand.

But climate regions aren't fixed. Several independent studies have found that
global winds are shifting due to global warming, and the shifts are faster than
predicted by climate models. Most recently is this new study in Nature
Geoscience. The tropical belt has widened by several degrees latitude since 1979.
This is consistent with other observations suggesting that the jet streams and storm
tracks have moved poleward.

The drought-stricken Upper Colorado River Basin, which includes Lake Powell, is
located just poleward of the horse latitudes at around 37° N. This has historically
been in the temperate zone, but the desert zone may be gradually encroaching upon
it. (Since nothing is simple, there are other factors contributing to this particular
drought, as well.) Similarly, water-starved Sydney, Australia at 34° S is just
poleward of the southern horse latitude.

What we may be seeing here is not so much drought as desertification - a shift in
global climate patterns due to global warming. Areas that used to be in temperate
zones may be shifting into desert, while areas that had been arid receive more
precipitation.

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» time will tell Posted by: KaptainSpiffy
Drastic change required in the next 8 years
Posted by: AsteroidMiner on Mar 18, 2008 3:51 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Great damage has been done, but we still have 8 years before natural positive
feedbacks lead to our extinction. Sea level will continue to rise even if we
disappear right now, but that is "minor" compared to poison gas bubbling out of
the ocean and killing almost everything including all of the people.
See the chart on page 274 of "Six Degrees" by Mark Lynas. We have until 2015
to BEGIN REDUCING our total CO2 output and we have until 2050 to actually
reduce our CO2 output by 90%. The curve has to start down by 2015, not we
have to think about it by then. The peak of our CO2 production has to happen in
the next 8 years.
How are YOU going to do it?

If we don't follow the schedule in Six Degrees, we will encounter positive
feedbacks which will take the control of the climate out of our hands.
Preventing the fall of civilization is a daunting task, but not yet impossible. We
have to hold the CO2 level to 400 parts per million to have a 75% chance of
avoiding the positive feedbacks. The natural positive feedbacks are explained in
Six Degrees. We have to deal with enormous changes in where agriculture works
because of climate changes that are already unavoidable. Don't give up.

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Predicting the extinction of the human race
Posted by: AsteroidMiner on Mar 18, 2008 3:55 PM   
Current rating: 5    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Hydrogen Sulfide gas will Kill all people. Homo Sap will go
EXTINCT unless drastic action is taken.

October 2006 Scientific American

"EARTH SCIENCE
Impact from the Deep
Strangling heat and gases emanating from the earth and sea, not
asteroids, most likely caused several ancient mass extinctions.
Could the same killer-greenhouse conditions build once again?
By Peter D. Ward
downloaded from:
http://www.sciam.com/
article.cfm?articleID=
00037A5D-A938-150E-
A93883414B7F0000&
sc=I100322
....................Most of the article omitted......................
But with atmospheric carbon climbing at an annual rate of 2 ppm
and expected to accelerate to 3 ppm, levels could approach 900
ppm by the end of the next century, and conditions that bring
about the beginnings of ocean anoxia may be in place. How soon
after that could there be a new greenhouse extinction? That is
something our society should never find out."

Press Release
Pennsylvania State University
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Monday, Nov. 3, 2003
downloaded from:
http://www.geosociety.org/meetings/2003/prPennStateKump.htm
"In the end-Permian, as the levels of atmospheric oxygen fell and
the levels of hydrogen sulfide and carbon dioxide rose, the upper
levels of the oceans could have become rich in hydrogen sulfide
catastrophically. This would kill most of the oceanic plants and
animals. The hydrogen sulfide dispersing in the atmosphere would
kill most terrestrial life."

www.astrobio.net is a NASA web zine. See:

http://www.astrobio.net/
news/modules.php?op=
modload&name=News&
file=article&sid=672

http://www.astrobio.net/
news/modules.php?op=
modload&name=News&
file=article&sid=1535

http://www.astrobio.net/
news/article2509.html

http://astrobio.net/news/
modules.php?op=modload
&name=News&file=article
&sid=2429&mode=thread
&order=0&thold=0

These articles agree with the first 2. They all say 6 degrees C or
1000 parts per million CO2 is the extinction point.

The global warming is already 1 degree Farenheit. 11 degrees
Farenheit is about 6 degrees Celsius. The book "Six Degrees" by
Mark Lynas agrees. If the global warming is 6 degrees
centigrade, we humans go extinct. See:
http://www.marklynas.org/
2007/4/23/six-steps-to-hell-
summary-of-six-degrees-as-
published-in-the-guardian

"Under a Green Sky" by Peter D. Ward, Ph.D., 2007.
Paleontologist discusses mass extinctions of the past and the one
we are doing to ourselves.

ALL COAL FIRED POWER PLANTS MUST BE
CONVERTED TO NUCLEAR IMMEDIATELY TO AVOID
THE EXTINCTION OF US HUMANS. 32 countries have
nuclear power plants. Only 9 have the bomb. The top 3
producers of CO2 all have nuclear power plants, coal fired power
plants and nuclear bombs. They are the USA, China and India.
Reducing CO2 production by 90% by 2050 requires drastic action
in the USA, China and India. King Coal has to be demoted to a
commoner. Coal must be left in the earth. If you own any coal
stock, NOW is the time to dump it, regardless of loss, because it
will soon be worthless.

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The fall of previous civilizations due to climate change
Posted by: AsteroidMiner on Mar 18, 2008 4:02 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
See the book: "The Long Summer" by Brian Fagan. Something
like 2 dozen civilizations have already disappeared because of
climate changes smaller than the one we have already caused.
Starvation was the cause of death.

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http://www.ipcc.ch/ http://www.realclimate.org
Posted by: AsteroidMiner on Mar 18, 2008 8:02 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Both of these are conservative and very good. Both do a
thorough job of demolishing the arguments of climate
change deniers. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change is a United Nations World Meteorological
Organization agency. Since any of the 130 governments
could delete words, the IPCC reports are very conservative.
The IPCC site has enough downloadable documents to
keep you in reading material for a while.

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Yes AsteroidMinor,but do you have to use....
Posted by: nightgaunt on Mar 18, 2008 10:54 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Multiple long postings so much. Overwhelm everyone else? It gets annoying.
Nuclear is far more damaging than hybrid systems of biomass,wind,DOC,geothermal,solar and many other ways to draw the energy from around us without long term contamination.

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WHAT long term contamination? THAT comes from C O A L.
Posted by: AsteroidMiner on Mar 19, 2008 6:12 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
nightgaunt, quit being so hard-of-learning. If you would learn it, I
wouldn't have to repeat it. Nuclear is THE CLEANEST.
Reference:
OUR NUCLEAR FUTURE:
THE PATH OF SELECTIVE IGNORANCE
by Alex Gabbard
Oak Ridge National Laboratory
Oak Ridge, TN
Selections from the 19th Annual Conference
SOUTHERN FUTURE SOCIETY
March 14,15,16, 1996
Nashville, Tennessee

Published by the
SOUTHERN FUTURE SOCIETY
1996
Edited by Jack D. Arters, Ed.D.
Conference Director
The truth is, all natural rocks contain most natural elements. Coal is a rock.
The average concentration of uranium in coal is 1 or 2 parts per million. Illinois
coal contains up to 103 parts per million uranium. A 1000 million watt coal
fired power plant burns 4 million tons of coal each year. If you multiply 4
million tons by 1 part per million, you get 4 tons of uranium. Most of that is
U238. About .7% is U235. 4 tons = 8000 pounds. 8000 pounds times .7% =
56 pounds of U235. An average 1 billion watt coal fired power plant puts out 56
to 112 pounds of U235 every year. There are only 2 places the uranium can go:
Up the stack or into the cinders.
Since a reactor full fuel load is around 11 tons of 2% U235 and 98% U238, and
one load lasts about 10 years, and what one coal fired power plant puts into the
air and cinders fully fuels a nuclear power plant.
Compare 4 Million tons per year with 1.1 tons per year. 1.1 divided by 4 Million
= 2.75 E -7 = .000000275 =.0000275%. Remember that only 2% of that is
U235. The nuclear power plant needs ~44 pounds of U235 per year. The coal
fired power plant burns coal by the trainload. The nuclear power plant consumes
U235 in such small quantities yearly that you could carry that much weight in a
briefcase.
See: http://www.ornl.gov/ORNLReview/rev26-34/text/coalmain.html

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noooo, global warming is the second biggest threat after.....
Posted by: Forrest on Mar 26, 2008 7:43 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
human global over-population.

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