Hillary Will Never Say Die, But Tuesday Could Be Her Last Gasp

It did not look like a political wake. Senator Hillary Clinton emerged into a basketball stadium in Houston wearing a bright red jacket, beaming broadly and waving at thousands of screaming supporters.

Gene Green, a Texan congressman, introduced her with confident words predicting her return to the White House. 'I think we have a president standing on this platform! The next president of the United States!' he shouted. Clinton carried on the mood of hopeful triumph. She skilfully worked the crowd, hushing it with touching anecdotes and sparking cheers with exhortations to support her. 'It is beginning to grow,' she said of her Texas campaign. 'We are moving!'

But the cracks in Clinton's bid for the presidency were also on display. Though 6,000 people had come to the Delmar Sports Complex in the Houston suburbs, there were many empty blue seats in the stadium. High up in the top tier, whole rows went unfilled.

Clinton is in the battle of her life and the odds are against her. And it is not only a fight to be the next occupant of the White House. It is also about the legacy that Clinton and her husband, Bill, have left America and whether they still have a role to play.

They are also willing to play nasty to emerge victorious. American TV screens are now full of one of the most aggressive attack ads in recent history. Dubbed 'Children', it in effect suggests that a vote for Barack Obama will lead to such weakness on national security that the American homeland will be in peril. It is shot over pictures of sleeping babies and it appeals directly to the 'security moms' demographic that Clinton needs.

But the facts on the ground remain the same. It has finally come down to this: on Tuesday, Clinton needs to win Texas and Ohio. Anything less could force her from the race and spell the end of the Clinton dynasty. The revered Clinton brand, once so confident of a second act, is now desperately fighting to stop the curtain coming down early.

Even her most ardent fans have doubts. Toy Halsey, 67, had waited for hours to see Clinton in Houston. But would Clinton win Texas? 'I hope so,' Halsey said, and then looked unsure. 'It is going to be hard,' she admitted. Later, as Clinton's speech wore on, a steady trickle of supporters left early. They were like loyal fans near the end of a football match ducking out because they knew their side was going to lose.

It was not meant to be like this. It has been forgotten in the rush to write the Clintons' political obituaries, but for most of last year Clinton ran a flawless campaign. She dominated through the spring and summer and early autumn, fending off the challenge from the upstart Obama. Then, during a televised debate on 30 October, she fluffed a question about driving licences for illegal immigrants. Suddenly it was open season on Clinton. First came defeat in Iowa. Then followed a disastrous performance in South Carolina. She steadied herself on Super Tuesday, before the momentum behind Obama propelled him to 11 straight victories.

Now Clinton's presidential hopes are pinned on winning Texas and Ohio. Yet neither looks certain. She still leads in Ohio, where her blue-collar support seems to be giving her a narrow lead. But, in Texas, Obama has now nudged ahead, mobilising his familiar combination of black, educated professional and young voters. If previous contests are a guide, once Obama has overturned a Clinton lead in a state, he tends to win it. 'Times have changed. The reality is that the Clinton campaign is now in a place that they never expected to be in,' said Professor Shawn Bowler, a political scientist at the University of California at Riverside.

If Clinton's ambitions for the 2008 White House do die in Texas, it will be a fitting full stop. For it was here, back in 1972, that a youthful Hillary Rodham and her boyfriend, Bill Clinton, worked on voter registration for the anti-Vietnam war candidacy of George McGovern. That was her first big political experience in the field. Now, as she seeks to be America's first woman President, the Clintons are back where it all began.