Hillary Clinton Is Down But Not Out

By Steven Rosenfeld, AlterNet. Posted February 11, 2008.

The race to the Democratic nomination has hit a turning point. As Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) won five contests this weekend -- Maine, Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska and the Virgin Islands -- Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) reshuffled her staff, replacing campaign manager Patti Solis Doyle with longtime aid Maggie Williams.

Obama won Maine's caucus on Sunday 59 percent to 40 percent for Clinton. On Saturday, he won Washington's caucus 68 percent to 31 percent for Clinton. He won the Nebraska caucus 68 percent to 32 percent for Clinton. He won Louisiana's primary 57 percent to 36 percent for Clinton. And he won the Virgin Islands caucus 90 percent to 7 percent for Clinton. All these contests had approximately 455,000 voters participating.

The Obama campaign is on a roll. In contrast, the Clinton campaign is down, but hardly out. According to the Obama campaign, it now leads in delegates, 1,030 to 946 for Clinton. But other sources, such as "Democratic Convention Watch, a website, say Clinton continues to lead with 1,108 delegates, compared to 1,063 for Obama. To win the nomination, 2,025 delegates are needed.

No matter who is winning the delegate count, what is clear is the Democratic presidential race is moving into uncharted territory, with the biggest question being can Clinton emerge weeks from now as the nominee if she wins the three last big states: Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania? Ohio and Texas vote on March 4.

The race to the Democratic nomination was supposed to be over by now. At least that is what Hillary Clinton's campaign assumed going into Super Tuesday. The resignation of her campaign manager is a signal that the campaign's early assumptions did not play out. But now, as Barack Obama begins a month where he is winning and is expected to win most small-state contests, the question is can the Clinton campaign rebuild and recover before those big state votes. In part, that transition is already underway.

Days before Super Tuesday', Clinton retooled her stump speech. This weekend in Virginia, which votes with three other states on Tuesday, she drew on that new pitch speaking passionately about the "genius of our constitution ... that was crafted to expand as our hearts do, allowing each generation to reach a more perfect union." This is a notable softening of her tone and a departure from earlier speeches that often were heavy with policy prescriptions. While Obama's speeches have lacked specifics compared to Clinton, she has struggled to match his inspirational tone. She may have found a balance.

Still, political perceptions can be cruel. There is no doubt it hurts the Clinton campaign to see headlines that Obama swept Saturday's contests in Washington, Louisiana, Nebraska and the Virgin Islands and Sunday's caucus in Maine. Those come after other painful news that she personally lent her campaign $5 million, that some staffers were not getting paid and her campaign manager's resignation. The next locales to vote are Virginia, Maryland and Washington, D.C., whose elections are on Tuesday. News organizations such as The New York Times say Obama has an edge in these contests.

Well-connected and perhaps cynical sources in the Clinton camp said these races hardly matter, because she can win the nomination on or after March 4 when the remaining big states vote. The Clinton campaign no doubt takes comfort in the demographics of Ohio and Pennsylvania, both large industrial states, and Texas, with its large Latino population. After all, she won California, New York, New Jersey and Massachusetts, precedents that cannot be ignored.

But 2008 has been a season that has been unkind to predictions. Across the political aisle, Rudy Giuliani bet he could skip the early contests and rebound a month later in Florida, which John McCain won, pushing Rudy out of the race. It remains to be seen if Clinton can keep campaigning hard for another month - as Obama grabs the headlines -- and come out on top. On the other hand, Hillary Clinton has shown she is a very tough and enduring candidate.

The next month may not be smooth sailing for Obama either. While his recent caucus wins in Washington, Nebraska, Maine and several Super Tuesday states just days before show a grassroots operation that Democratic Party officials cannot fail to notice, it remains to be seen how party stalwarts will react to this powerful new force. One fifth of those voting at the Democratic National Convention are so-called super delegates, a mix of Democratic National Committee members, elected federal and state office holders, party officials, donors and other luminaries. Clinton and Obama have launched campaigns within their campaigns to get pledges from these delegates. While the Obama campaign has been touting its progress, Clinton has had an edge because of lingering ties from Bill Clinton's presidency.

See more stories tagged with: barack obama, hillary clinton, election 2008

Steven Rosenfeld is a senior fellow at Alternet.org and co-author of "What Happened in Ohio: A Documentary Record of Theft and Fraud in the 2004 Election," with Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman (The New Press, 2006).

Liked this story? Get top stories in your inbox each week from AlterNet! Sign up now »