It's Not Over. Clinton Runs Ahead, But Obama Remains Strong

By Steven Rosenfeld, AlterNet. Posted February 6, 2008.

Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., remains the frontrunner in the Democratic presidential contest, even though Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., won more states on Super Tuesday, when 22 states held Democratic primaries and caucuses.

While the vote count is not yet final in some states, notably California, Clinton won strong victories in many large states, such as New York, New Jersey, Arizona, and Massachusetts -- and she was leading in the early returns in California. She also won Arkansas, Oklahoma and Tennessee. All told, Clinton won in eight states.

In contrast, Obama won 13 states, according to his campaign, including most Western states holding caucuses. Those states are Alaska, Alabama, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota and Utah.

Various news organizations have different estimates of the delegate count, but Clinton is clearly ahead in these scenarios. The New York Times said Clinton has 656 delegates compared to 558 for Obama. The Washington Post, whose estimate does not include super-delegates -- party officials and other Democratic luminaries who comprise about 21 percent of all delegates -- said Clinton has 412 delegates compared to 381 for Obama.

The Obama campaign said on Tuesday night that it leads Clinton by 43 delegates -- not counting California -- with 677 delegates, compared to Clinton's 634 delegates. That estimate includes super delegates.

A more objective appraisal will not emerge for several days, however, until California's results are known and all the state tallies are analyzed.

Thus, while Super Tuesday appears to have moved both parties closer to picking candidates, it seems that voters -- particularly Democrats -- can look forward to more campaigning, debates and voting in long-ignored states, making the eventual nominee the result of the most informed and participatory process in decades.

Both Democratic candidates saw positives in Super Tuesday's outcome, although the Obama campaign may have been working a bit harder than the Clinton campaign to spin the results in its favor.

"The polls are just closing in California, and the votes are still being counted in cities and towns across America," said Barack Obama, addressing supporters in Chicago. "But there is one thing on this February night that we do not need the results to know. Our time has come."

"Tonight is your night. Tonight is America's night," said Hillary Clinton, addressing her supporters in New York. "In record numbers, people voted not just to make history, but to remake America."

While election officials will certify vote totals and party officials will parse the results and award delegates in coming days, the bottom line is that the contest may take a month or more before the nominee is chosen.

In fact, on Monday, Clinton campaign strategist Mark Penn suggested that the nominee might not be selected until early March, when Ohio and Texas vote.

"There are a lot of states that are good for her," Penn said, citing Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Texas as Clinton strongholds, which hold their nominating contests on March 4, April 22 and March 4, respectively. "Those are large states with a lot of delegates."

See more stories tagged with: super tuesday, presidential primary, democratic primary, obama, hillary, hillary clinton

Steven Rosenfeld is a senior fellow at Alternet.org and co-author of "What Happened in Ohio: A Documentary Record of Theft and Fraud in the 2004 Election," with Bob Fitrakis and Harvey Wasserman (The New Press, 2006).

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