Iraq (and DC): 2008 Preview

By Erik Leaver, Foreign Policy in Focus. Posted January 11, 2008.

January 10th marks the one year anniversary of Bush's "surge" strategy. Many analysts are now claiming the "surge" is a success, but with no end in sight to the war, the year of the "surge" really is a tale of two Iraqs. Coming off a very deadly end to 2006, the first half of 2007 brought some of the highest levels of violence and displacement since the war began. But by the middle of the year, the level of violence reportedly began to drop, with December being the second least violent for U.S. troops since 2003. But the current calm has been crafted on a foundation that can topple at any moment, leaving its "success" in doubt.

Iraq Today

The dominant story in Iraq is the downward trend in casualties for both Iraqis and U.S. soldiers. The single-minded focus on casualties however, masks the internal problems in Iraq that could cause the violence to rise to new heights this year. Much of the decrease in violence is a result of the United States cutting deals with Sunni insurgents. The United States now has 70,000 "former" insurgents on its payroll. At the same time, the U.S. military continues to recruit and train members of the Iraqi military and police -- agencies heavily dominated by Shiites. Arming and training these two groups has quelled the violence in the short term but makes the chances of future fighting between the groups to be a very bloody affair.

Focusing on training and arming all sides in the conflict has been counterproductive in achieving the main goal of the "surge" -- providing the space for political reconciliation. Provincial elections and the referendum on the status of Kirkuk were postponed in 2007. The Iraqi parliament was stalemated for most of the year and when it was functioning much of its activities were in opposition to that of the Iraqi cabinet. And the period for amending the constitution in a fast-track manner, which was the carrot for the Sunnis to help pass the constitution, has been extended for the fourth time. Politically, 2008 appears to be the most difficult to date.

These political tensions will come to a head as President Bush and Prime Minister Maliki move forward in signing a formal agreement for the future U.S. troop presence. This agreement, scheduled for completion by July 31, will likely coincide with the completion of the U.S. embassy. Both of these events will signal what Iraqis feared when the U.S. invaded -- that the occupation will become permanent, giving the United States a dominant position with military bases, preferential access to oil and open access to Iraqi markets. With opponents in the parliament, the militias, the insurgency, and Maliki being in an extremely weak position, completion of this agreement could easily send the country into chaos.

The War at Home

In the United States, the focus will be on two events: a drawdown of troops back to pre-surge levels of 130,000 from the current 160,000 and on continued funding of the war. Given the November elections and the perceived advantage Democrats still hold over Republicans on the Iraq War, Congress will likely continue to challenge Bush on the funding. But Democrats will be in the same position they were in 2007, without the votes needed to cut the funds off or to pass legislation to bring the troops home in 2008. The result will be continued funding, with an extension of reporting requirements and perhaps legislation regarding how long troops may be deployed, war profiteering, and permanent bases. A wildcard in this calculation is the state of the U.S. economy, which appears to be floundering at the moment. If the economy weakens further, the public may strenuously object to spending another $100-200 billion in Iraq.

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Erik Leaver is policy outreach director for the Foreign Policy In Focus project at the Institute for Policy Studies in Washington, D.C.

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