Obama and Huck Win; Edwards Takes 2nd, Hillary 3rd; Dem Field Narrows

Michael Moore: "It's the War," Says Iowa to Hillary

from MichaelMoore.com:

There was no doubt about it. The message from Iowa tonight was simple, but deafening:

If you're a candidate for president, and you voted for the war, you lose. And if you voted and voted and voted for the war -- and never once showed any remorse -- you really lose.

In short, if you had something to do with keeping us in this war for four-plus years, you are not allowed to be the next president of the United States.

Over 70% of Iowan Democrats voted for candidates who either never voted for the invasion of Iraq (Obama, Richardson, Kucinich) or who have since admitted their mistake (Edwards, Biden, Dodd). I can't tell you how bad I feel for Senator Clinton tonight. I don't believe she was ever really for this war. But she did -- and continued to do -- what she thought was the politically expedient thing to eventually get elected. And she was wrong. And tonight she must go to sleep wondering what would have happened if she had voted her conscience instead of her calculator.

Read more...

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Republicans 9:39 PST

via CNN (with 93 percent of precincts reporting):

Mike Huckabee 34%

Mitt Romney 25%

Fred Thompson 13%

John McCain 13%

Ron Paul 10%

With 10 percent in Iowa and a boatload of cash, will Fox News let Paul debate?

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More go 8:49 PST

CNN reports that Joe Biden will drop out of the race, joining Chris Dodd. Oh, and we hear Mike Gravel is calling it a race.

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Results Update 8:01 PST

via NBC (with 98 percent of precincts reporting):

Barack Obama 38%

John Edwards 30%

Hillary Clinton 29%

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Dodd Drops Out 8:00 PST

Chris Dodd, who gained the respect of progressives around the country by taking a stand against Bush's assault on the rule of law and saying "no" to giving telecoms immunity for violating their customers' right to privacy, has announced that he will drop out of the race.

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Networks call it for Obama in virtual three-way tie 6:40 PST

MSNBC reports:

"On the Democrats side, there was a virtual three-way tie, with Barack Obama holding a slim lead over rivals John Edwards and Hillary Clinton with about half the precincts counted."

[snip]

"About half the Democratic caucus-goers said a candidate's ability to bring about needed change was the most important factor as they made up their minds, according to voters surveyed by The Associated Press and the television networks as they entered the caucuses. Change was Obama's calling card in the arduous campaign for Iowa's backing. Fewer voters cited experience, which Clinton said was her strong suit, or a candidate's chance of capturing the White House or ability to care about people like the voters themselves."

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GOP Projection: Huckabee, then Romney 6:12 PST

Both ABC and CNN are projecting a win for Mike Huckabee. CNN:

"With 15 percent of precincts reporting, Huckabee had the support of 36 percent of voters, compared to 23 percent for Mitt Romney. Fred Thompson had 15 percent and John McCain had 12.

"On the Democratic side, early results show John Edwards with a narrow lead over rivals Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama."

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Early reports: turn-out extremely high 6:02 PST

Reports on the ground suggest a surprisingly high turn-out, given the frigid conditions. According to an Obama organizer at one site, the numbers are twice what they had projected.

As Jane Hamsher noted earlier, the conventional wisdom holds that "low turnout favors Edwards (he's got solid union support), mid turnout favors Clinton, and high turnout favors Obama."

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Huckabee ran attack ads, after all 5:49 pm PST

From factcheck.org:

His attack ad appears on three Iowa stations. We find it somewhat misleading. Another ad makes misleading claims about tax cuts.

Summary

The ad Huckabee said he decided not to run has now appeared at least three times in Iowa anyway. It accuses Romney of being "dishonest" but shades the facts in the process.