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2008 Economic Preview: an Ugly Picture
Corporate Accountability and WorkPlace:
Today's Economic Crisis in Historical Perspective
Democracy and Elections:
More Unfinished 2008 Election Business: Verifiable Vote Counts
Steven Rosenfeld
DrugReporter:
A New Approach to Drugs Would Save New York Hundreds of Millions of Dollars
Gabriel Sayegh
Election 2008:
Franken Lawyer: "We Are Going To Win"
Sam Stein
Environment:
Forget the Polar Bears -- The Climate Crisis Is About All of Us
George Monbiot
ForeignPolicy:
What Venezuela's Regional Elections Really Mean
Olivia Burlingame Goumbri
Health and Wellness:
Obama's Health Care Reform Plan Is Based on the Clintons' Failed 1990s Model
Marie Cocco
Hurricane Katrina:
From the Bayou to Baghdad: Mission Not Accomplished
Amy Goodman
Immigration:
Immigration Reform After Bush: Let's Put an End to Punitive Policies
Roberto Lovato
Media and Technology:
Born Digital: Understanding the First Generation of Digital Natives
Doron Taussig
Movie Mix:
Love Bites: What Sexy Vampires Tell Us About Our Culture
Sarah Seltzer
Reproductive Justice and Gender:
The Hymen Mystique
Carole Roye
Rights and Liberties:
Ban the Cluster Bomb
Brian Cook
Sex and Relationships:
Sex Ed for Seniors
Sue Katz
War on Iraq:
The Dilemma of Foreign Prisoners in Iraq
Ma'ad Fayad
Water:
Corporate Water Abusers Should Not Be Trusted As Stewards of the World's Water
Wenonah Hauter
As we end 2007 and start to look to 2008 the economy is not in very good shape. My hope for the upcoming year is we get through this mess with as little damage as possible.
Let's start with the great big mess that is the current housing market. For most of 2007 the main problem was a hug mismatch between supply and demand. And that mismatch continues. Here is a chart of the total inventory of existing homes on the market.

And here is a chart of the months of supply:

Bottom line: there is a huge glut -- which I call a super-glut -- of existing homes on the market. This is already impacting home prices:
Home prices in 20 major U.S. cities were down 6.1% on average in the past year as of October, according to the Case-Shiller price index released Wednesday by Standard & Poor's.
Since October 2006, prices in 10 cities fell 6.7% -- a record drop. The prior largest decline was 6.3% in April 1991.
"No matter how you look at these data, it is obvious that the current state of the single-family housing market remains grim," said Robert Shiller, chief economist at MacroMarkets LLC and co-developer of the index.
Eleven of the 20 metro areas posted a record low annual growth rate. Also, all 20 metro areas declined from the prior month as San Diego posted the largest decline -- 2.6%.
Forecasts for next year are not looking promising. The figures that I have seen for the foreclosures estimates are about 1.2 million. The best estimate I have seen for the Bush/Paulsen home bailout plan is it will help 600,000. Assuming both of those estimates are accurate, we're looking at another 600,000 homes coming on the market, bloating an already bloated inventory picture. In short -- I seriously hope that by the end of next year the housing market stabilizes at some level. But even if that happens, I seriously doubt the stabilization will occur at a level anywhere near previous levels.
The Federal Reserve could lower rates to help with the slowdown. But they are hemmed in by inflation caused by rising commodity prices. Note that agricultural prices

and oil prices:

Are in the middle of multi-year rallies. The Fed acknowledged this in their latest policy statement:
Readings on core inflation have improved modestly this year, but elevated energy and commodity prices, among other factors, may put upward pressure on inflation. In this context, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain, and it will continue to monitor inflation developments carefully.
I think inflationary concerns are a prime reason why the Fed opted for its open market auction operation rather than lower interest rates a further 25 basis points. They see the effect of rising commodity prices on consumers and they realize that lowering rates may lead to an acceleration of inflation.
The consumer -- who makes up 70 percent of U.S. economic growth -- is under increasing stress. As previously noted, home prices are dropping and inflationary pressures on necessities (food and energy) are increasing. As a result, we're starting to see cracks in consumer finances.
See more stories tagged with: economy, 2008 preview
Hale "Bonddad" Stewart is a former bond broker with several regional firms. He has been involved with the financial markets since 1995. He currently practices law in Houston, Texas. Stewart is the proprietor of the Bonddad Blog.
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