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Will Humanity go the Way of the Dinosaur?

By Robert B. Reich, The American Prospect. Posted March 31, 2007.


A new NASA report on killer asteroids ought to spook people into action.
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According to a new report from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, some 100,000 asteroids and comets routinely pass between the Sun and the Earth's orbit. About 20,000 of these orbit close enough to us that they could one day hit the Earth and destroy a major city.

But the really worrying news from NASA is that over a thousand of these things are large enough (almost a mile wide in diameter) and their orbits close enough to us as to pose a real potential hazard of crashing into the Earth with enough force to end most life on this planet. Scientists think this is what killed off the dinosaurs about 65 million years ago.

Congress has given NASA a budget of a little over $4 million a year to track these killer asteroids, but NASA says it needs at least a billion dollars more to find all of them by the year 2020. This might involve building a special observatory for tracking them and launching a spacecraft to observe the space around Earth from Venus.

The job could be finished sooner than 2020, says NASA, but that would probably require a deep space orbiting infrared observatory, at an additional cost of $700 million.

All of which raises at least three pertinent questions.

First, if we're spending over a billion dollars a day in Iraq, why can't we bring the troops home a few days earlier and use the savings to track killer asteroids that might end life on earth?

Second, since we're talking about the survival of most living things and not just Americans, why shouldn't we expect other nations to kick in some money, too -- especially now that the dollar is dropping relative to the euro and the yen?

And third, once NASA knows for sure that a killer asteroid is heading directly for us, how exactly are we supposed to get ourselves out of its way, or it out of our way -- and how much should we be budgeting to accomplish this?

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See more stories tagged with: asteroids, costs of war, priorities

Robert Reich is professor of public policy at the Richard and Rhoda Goldman School of Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley. He was secretary of labor in the Clinton administration.

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The UN is already setting up an action plan for asteroids
Posted by: Lector on Mar 31, 2007 1:08 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
About 35 million years ago a rock from space that was more than a mile wide and moving at supersonic speed crashed into the Atlantic Ocean off North America in the area what is now known as the southern part of the Chesapeake Bay so maybe 35 millions years later, time could be short. But the funding to deal with identifying and deflecting a killer asteroid is low and probably being wasted to fight the “war on terror”, the abstract concept being used to scare the American people. Meanwhile, a real object of terror may be heading at us fair and square.

Also, scientists are not certain if a nuclear-bomb blast would deflect a rogue comet away from our planet. Blasting a more solid object, like an asteroid or even a smushy comet, could have serious repercussions. Many of the fragments could remain on a collision course and, like the blast from a shotgun, the fragments could do up to 10 times as much damage as the original, intact object. And a spaceship called a "gravity tractor" which they say could pull the asteroid off course just by hovering near its surface has never been tested. We earthlings should unite as one, do as much as we can, and with a little luck we might survive.

Robert L. Lightfoot

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Darn It Reich, Support The Troop(s)!
Posted by: edith on Mar 31, 2007 5:53 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
I always thought Reich was the most interesting and creative of Clinton's Cabinet members. Now this wise labor economist is playing Krypton? What the good professor has missed is that the Dim Duke of Crawford in his Wisdom knows that asteroids are on their way. Heh Heh. And the Al Queda terrorists don't! So what a surprise when the big rock hits and BOOOM!!!!!!!!!! No more Al Queda. No more Ben Laden. And The Duke and his followers go to Heaven to Boot!

Bet you didn't think of that, PrOfessa Riiiich!!!!!!!!!

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BRING IT ON!!
Posted by: veggiegrrrl on Mar 31, 2007 6:44 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
BRING IT ON!! Human civilization deserves a good extermination. Let the planet regenerate without us....
Why do we hold ourselves up with such regard that we think our species should be saved? We are killing all other species on the planet as we destroy ecosystems. We are greedy, warmongering, hateful beasts. Bring on the asteroids.

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» RE: BRING IT ON!! Posted by: tanktramp
» RE: BRING IT ON!! Posted by: albrechtkrausse
» Extermination? Posted by: Scientz
» RE: xtermination? Posted by: theairboater
» RE: xtermination? Posted by: theairboater
» YOU'RE AN IDIOT... Posted by: Scientz
» RE: BRING IT ON!! Posted by: Logic's Edge
» Silly Girl Posted by: jakelivesay
» RE: BRING IT ON!! Posted by: theairboater
Where's big government when you need it?
Posted by: MartianBachelor on Mar 31, 2007 7:26 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Here's a link to a story on the NASA report.

1) "if we're spending over a billion dollars a day in Iraq..."

Right now we're spending millions, not billions, on near-earth asteroid detection using cost-effective off-the-shelf technology. This is chump change around Washington and could easily be increased by factors of three to five with no problem. It starts to get up into the hundreds of millions or a billion dollars only when you start talking about big new projects and space missions. The cost of a couple of stupid Hollywood blockbuster action/disaster movies would cover the cost too...

2) "shouldn't we expect other nations to kick in some money, too?"

Well, there are detection projects going on in several countries already, so there's no reason to suspect it wouldn't be an international effort. It helps if we get our own act together first.

3) "how exactly are we supposed to get ourselves out of its way, or it out of our way?"

Lot's are looking at this, but we've only visited a few objects up til now so the problem is not well characterized. Early detection is obviously a key aspect of any solution.

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You'll know an asteroid is coming...
Posted by: HughScott on Mar 31, 2007 7:30 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
when President Bush flees to save his own ass, like he did on 9/11.

Where ever the spineless bastard hides, probably in NORAD headquarters under Cheyenne Mountain, pray for a direct hit.

Hugh E. Scott, editor of King-George.biz -- the only website with hardcopy proof of White House corruption.

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» Hey, wait a sec... Posted by: MartianBachelor
» RE: Hey, wait a sec... Posted by: famouspipeliner
Expect to see more of these stories over the years
Posted by: Ghoulman on Mar 31, 2007 7:46 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
... and then nuclear weapons in orbit. it's all part of the plan, but naturally the US will be pointing those nukes at their enemies (what week). Calling Space Commmand! Yes, the States actually has a 'Space Command' now.

Note: nukes have no effect on oncoming rocks in space. In fact, it can make things worse. Much much worse.

BTW, if anyone at NASA was serious about detecting dangerous "Hammer Of God" thingies from slamming into the Earth I suggest they get more than two scientists to search all of outer fucking space. Call me crazy.

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Asteroid hits earth
Posted by: jumperladd on Mar 31, 2007 9:25 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
The question was raised why haven't we asked other nations to contribute to the search for killer asteroids since it will impact them as much as us. The answer is the same as always: we are the "good guys" that lead the pack to safety and redemption. As the "leader" we should always pay for the care and welfare of the teeming masses. As the richest nation and the one with the most resources, albeit by confiscation or outright stealing from lesser fortunate nations, everyone looks to us for protection. If you don't like that description of America why are you always waving the flag in everyone's face, screaming at the top of your lungs "God Bless America!"?
When Americans begin to take responsibility for their own concupiscence and self-delusion maybe the rest of the world will step up to the plate and assist in the saving of this planet as we know it.

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start digging
Posted by: robmikejas on Mar 31, 2007 10:27 AM   
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When the asteroid hits and you are torn apart by the shock wave, or drowned in the tsunami, or burned to a crisp in the ensuing fire, or smothered to death in the dust, will you be raptured or be just another weak human meat form? Plead the case for greater research on the inevitable collision and dig a hole a thousand feet deep.

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We may have a million years or more before the next big one
Posted by: UnEasyOne on Mar 31, 2007 11:04 AM   
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or it may only be...wait - why is it so bright outside? AIIIII!!!
Seriously, I'm amazed that we're bothering - not that we shouldn't, but odds are that outgassing from the ocean floor as the temperature rises is gonna get us first. That was responsible for more than one major extinction event. Simply put, there are incredible amounts of poison gases just waiting for higher temperature to be released. It may already be too late to prevent this process from eliminating us and most other species on the planet. If it isn't, time is short. Never heard of this? Watch more PBS - you will.

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Is humanity worth saving?
Posted by: ateo on Mar 31, 2007 11:23 AM   
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That's a question I wrestle with from time to time. My conclusion usually changes each time.

To keep it short: humanity as it now stands is not worth saving and I would welcome the extinction of our species. However, humanity as we can envision it, humanity as it could be is worth saving.

Ultimately we will answer the question ourselves. If humanity works towards doing away with petty tribalism and towards the greater good we will likely be able to save ourselves from whatever disaster befalls us in the short term. On the other hand if we continue with the status quo as is we are scattered and weak, able to be taken out by any number of disasters because we are too busy planning how to screw over our neighbor to plan how to protect ourselves from an indifferent universe that has thus far given us a short window in which to evolve and develop into our current state of being - a state where it is possible to foresee and prepare for what may come.

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» RE: Is humanity worth saving? Posted by: TheNamelessCity
» RE: Is humanity worth saving? Posted by: Logic's Edge
Jeez, another fear monger
Posted by: dayahka on Mar 31, 2007 2:28 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
I have five questions for the little professor:
1. Robert, don't you have anything better to do with your time?
2. 90 percent of species have been eradicated only once in Earth's 4 billion year biological history...Don't you think worrying about asteroid extinction is a little paranoid and delusional?
3. Don't you think species extinction in the case of the dinosaurs was a good thing--else we'd never have developed? Maybe something better will come along if we get wiped out. So, do you think there's something intrinsically worthwhile about human existence (other than self-serving valuations)?
4. Don't you see this is just another con job by NASA to get more money?
5. If Al Gore is right (which he isn't), then shouldn't we worry first about surviving global grilling, then about a slam dunk by an asteroid?

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» RE: Jeez, another fear monger Posted by: monkeywrench
Biblical prophecy
Posted by: gsmiley on Mar 31, 2007 7:22 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
It's all there in the bible folks, you don't have to wait until after the fact to work it out along with the seven headed beasts and stuff. Anyway there won't be anybody to ponder the situation.
"And the seas shall give up their dead" -its so obvious, one gigantic methane f*&t from a 3 degree increase way down in the Davy dark will see the last of us choking out our final imprecations at our enemies and blandishments to our ridiculous gods and all our triumphs and tears through the centuries will have been for NOTHING. As for asteroids - there is nothing to fear as long as we have Bruce Willis

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On the three points. . .
Posted by: monkeywrench on Mar 31, 2007 9:00 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
First: Why don't we bring our soldiers home from Iraq months or years early, and use the savings to track asteroids, fix education, repair the infrastructure, get New Orleans on its feet again, and stimulate industry to work to solve that other humanity killer, global warming?

Second: Expect other nations to kick in money to track asteroids? Didn't you hear Bush after 9/11? We don't need anybody! They're either wit' us, or a-gain' us! And, judging by Bush's sabre-rattling, foreign policy blunders, and testosterone-fueled arrogance, they're "a-gain' " us – big time.

Third: Wanna take care of a killer asteroid? Call Bruce Willis. Nobody in Washington seems to care enough. . .

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» RE: On the three points. . . Posted by: Fat Man at the Buffet Line
Useless, Except as a Diversion
Posted by: BobbyGreyFriar on Apr 1, 2007 11:23 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Unfortunately we can't do a lot about "killer asteroids" anyway. We can, however, do something about the proliferation of nuclear weapons (a threat that has been sustantially increased by the Bush administration) and Global Climate Change.

On these issues people often speak glibly, suggesting that either catastrophe would tolerable, perhaps even desirable. However, this is because for most people they present an abstraction, the horrors of which are difficult or impossible to comprehend. On the other hand, if there were in fact a nuclear detonation, say, the individuals in question, assuming they survived, would very quickly realize that they had been mistaken. A great deal that we take for granted would quickly be destroyed and there would quite likely be a massive collective psychological breakdown. Even if the physical damage were relatively localized it is quite unlikely that civilization would survive. Remember that WWII almost brought an end to civilization, and in that case only conventional weapons were used. In fact, is still possible, 60 years later, to see some of the damage inflicted, in places like Berlin, e.g.

Bertrand Russell and Albert Einstein, in their famous 1956, speech laid out the alternatives: "There lies before us, if we choose, continual progress in happiness, knowledge, and wisdom. Shall we, instead, choose death, because we cannot forget our quarrels? We appeal as human beings to human beings: Remember your humanity, and forget the rest. If you can do so, the way lies open to a new Paradise; if you cannot, there lies before you the risk of universal death."


GCC is already doing harm. It can be ignored, for now, because it mostly has only been brown people who have suffered: South Americans and Eskimos--e.i., people who are unimportant anyway. Regardless, we all will pay soon enough. For all we know the Sun may explode sooner than expected,--tomorrow, e.g.-- or it may not for 5 billion years. At this stage in our evolution cosmic events should be regarded honestly: i.e., as being virtually unpredictable (very little is known), and in any event completely beyond human control. Let's instead concentrate on genuine objectives--objectives that can, at least in theory, be achieved.

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Ha, Medievil Fools
Posted by: LostInDaJungle on Apr 1, 2007 1:07 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Gosh, considering we need to act on everything that might make us extinct it's just flat out amazing that our poor non-science ancestry survived.

So, we can track every asteroid, although we can't do anything about it. (Please, even if we did detect one, it would be moving so fast we'd have far less than a day to react, more like an hour or less.) We can solve global warming, and then also work to stave off the next ice age. We can worry about Super-Volcanoes, which are going to erupt anyway. If there's anything left, we can start worrying about polar shifts.

Then, when it's all said and done, we can worry about our dwindling resources. Or whether we'll save mother nature the trouble and destroy the world ourselves.

Life, civilisation, etc... All hang by a thread. We truly cannot predict or control everything that might wipe us off the face of the Earth everyday. The smoke detectors are useless when the flood hits.

Since everything is only made of sand, you might as well sit back and enjoy the beach. Meanwhile you can chuckle at those building their great castles out of the stuff.

Let's just hope NASA's other disaster scenario doesn't happen... A wall of debris left from expired satellites that effectively leaves us prisoners on this rock. Then, we can worry about asteroids all we want...

Man is the thing we can control, and must. Our biggest and "realest" dangers come from people on the ground, not the sky or sea.

Mankind as a species has not faced it's own mortality. We think we'll last forever, and nothing does.

Funny, back in the day, we used to laugh at people who stood on street corners saying "The End is Near", now I guess we give them government grants. Thanks, Captain Obvious. Call me back when you're not busy working on better missile delivery systems or bunker buster nukes. (Oh, and just wait until someone decides this is why we need more nuke research....)

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» RE: Ha, Medievil Fools Posted by: Logic's Edge
Alternet PANIC! OF! THE! WEEK!
Posted by: mmeetoilenoir on Apr 1, 2007 2:17 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Oh, noes, asteroids might kill us!

...remember that when you're on the freeway, around during a lightening storm, living in your house in Kansas in the tornado belt, eating, etc, etc.

We're mortal. In other news, water is wet. We can't predict what will happen to us, and we certainly can die from just about anything. We certainly don't need Alternet holding yet another "thing to hate/fear/dread" over its readers' heads!

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Asteroids? When we have thermo-nuclear missiles pointed at each other?
Posted by: Sojourner on Apr 1, 2007 7:52 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Anyone who worries about asteroids must want to live. We don't want to live. We don't want a future. We use our resources to build weapons that we dare not use while at the same time we are prepared to use them at a minute's notice. Our politics and economics are ruled by Thanatos, the death instinct. Dare to put your life on the line, and anyone with sense will backoff.

We are still accumulating the deadliest toxic for flesh and blood--radioactivity. We are drowning in our own wastes and cannot stop ourselves from killing off our kind. We have become rats trapped in a cage of our own making.

Asteroids? Compared to my everyday? Gang killings. Suicide drivers on the freeway. Law enforcement that feels free to splatter the world with bullets if someone so much as draws a screwdriver on them. Have you ever noticed? We are a violent people. Emerson called us "spawn." Vermin is more like it.

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Apophis
Posted by: Jeanne on Apr 1, 2007 11:19 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
I think that's its name. Is a known asteroid estimated to come very close sometime within 10-15 years from now (between us and the moon). On its next go-around it could very well hit. I suspect there's a lot that NASA or JPL could tell us, perhaps has told us, if anyone actually cared to listen. Humanity's priorities seem to be more, shall we say, short-sighted and more narrowly focused. We can't focus on what we're doing that is endangering our own ability to survive on the planet whose environment we are altering to our detriment. It seems unlikely we will focus on a very real, but seemingly distant, possibility of annihilation by celestial body. My god, we've got wars to wage, populations to exploit, money to make. Maybe in the adaptation wars homo sapiens just doesn't -- adapt.

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» RE: Apophis Posted by: MartianBachelor
Wait a second-
Posted by: WitchyNy on Apr 2, 2007 10:52 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Maybe what this guy is trying to say is- Lets give the war-mongers something better to do.

Forget the communist threat-the terrorists-the anti-god liberals-the animal rights-vegetarians-envoronmentalists-the pot smokers-the welfare mothers and the mexicans-

WE MUST FIGHT THE KILLER ASTROIDS!

As with a child- you say-Now stop hitting your brother..here do THIS instead...

And leave the rest of us in peace to do the important work...saving the environment and the starving people, educating the children and creating a sane world.

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Asteroids? How about Nuclear weapons?
Posted by: fanny666 on Apr 2, 2007 12:15 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Nukes have a much bigger chance of wiping us out than do asteroids. Our (and Russia's) defense systems are on trigger alert- the computers "see" an incoming threat and begin launch sequences several times a week. If a human does not intervene ("it's just a plane, not a missle from China") within 3 minutes, that's it for humans.

Bush could be impeached (via Article 6 Sect. 2 of the Const.) for failing to implement the Non-Proliferation Treaty (he has done the opposite of Article 6 of the treaty)

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