Was Republican corruption the tipping point?

The highly competitive post election spin battle over which constituency or issue was truly the tipping point for the smashing Democratic victory on November 7th continues unabated. Pundits and experts offer their analysis and theories, while exit polls are wrung out for their secret truths.

The issues most credited for the Republican demise are (a.) unhappiness with the results of the U.S. occupation of Iraq, and (b.) populist economic messages, particularly concern for the impact of international trade policies. These two issues are considered the paradigm shifters for many voters. But I want to make a case for the underdog in this race for issue supremacy: Republican corruption.

Let's go back and take a look at Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW) report on the Twenty Most Corrupt Members of Congress, released in September of 2006. Entitled "Beyond DeLay: The 20 Most Corrupt Members of Congress (and five to watch)," the report documents the "egregious, unethical and possibly illegal activities of the most tainted members of the 109th Congress..." with transgressions "analyzed in light of federal laws and congressional rules."The report names only three Senators, all Republicans -- Santorum, Frist, and Burns. In this election, Rick Santorum, the number 3 ranking Republican from Pennsylvania, got whacked by 20 points by Bob Casey, while Conrad Burns got nipped by Jon Tester, the crew-cut farmer populist in Montana. Frist was not up for election, so the corruption batting average on the Senate was 1,000.

On the House side, one of the surprises of election day was the Dems. ability to knock off 6 members from the CREW list of most corrupt House members, virtually all powerfully entrenched Republicans, A number of those defeated couldn't escape the stain spread by corrupt lobbyist Jack Abramoff, who was convicted of three felonies for self-enrichment. Those Republicans knocked off included seven term Congressman Richard Pombo in California, four-termer John Sweeney from New York, seven-termer Curt Weldon in Pennsylvania, J.D. Hayworth of Arizona (under investigation for his Abramoff relationship), and Don Sherwood in Pennsylvania, made infamous for allegedly choking his mistress who called the police-- and with whom he settled a lawsuit, with a non-disclosure clause.

In addition to the six Republican incumbents knocked out, the infamous Katherine Harris, who was on the CREW list, was thumped by Florida Democrat Bill Nelson 60-38, as she reached much too far in running for the Senate. One of four Democrats on the CREW list William Jefferson of Louisiana, is in a run off scheduled for December 9th with Karen Carter, after only receiving 30% of the vote. Among eleven candidates, Carter came in second with 22%, and Jefferson isn't seen as the favorite against Carter.

One from the list, Republican Gary Miller, ran unopposed, while progressive LA Congresswoman Maxine Waters, who is on the list for enriching family members, was essentially unopposed, winning 84% of the vote.

So overall, the House batting average for kicking out corrupt incumbents was .400: eight victories out of twenty in head-to-head campaigns-- which, given the odds, is a very good number. The impact of these victories is significant, and in a number of them, due to gerrymandering and long term incumbency, Democratic challengers were given little chance until late in the campaign.

Also, these results do not account for, as the CREW report notes:

"[T]he careers of three members which ended as a result of corruption: former Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-TX) indicted in Texas and facing possible federal indictment in the Jack Abramoff scandal; Rep. Randy 'Duke' Cunningham is now serving an eight-year jail term for bribery and Rep. Bob Ney has agreed to plead to guilty to crimes that will likely result in a minimum two-year prison term. In addition, several other members, including Reps. William Jefferson, Alan Mollohan and Jerry Lewis, and Sens. Conrad Burns and Bill Frist are also under federal investigation."

And in a possible portent for the future, there were a couple of close races against other Republican incumbents on the list -- particularly in California's Gold Country, where Charley Brown barely lost to eight-termer John Doolittle by 7,529 votes or 3%, and Angie Paccione in Colorado who lost to Marilyn Musgrove by 7,106 votes, or 3%.