Updated: Why Lieberman won't replace Rummy …

Like many others, when I realized what a tough confirmation Secretary of Defense nominee Robert Gates will -- or at least should -- have coming, I wondered if there wasn't an ulterior motive for the pick. And, also like many others, it occurred to me that if Gates' confirmation were killed, it would allow Bush to nominate Joe Lieberman, who might then take the job reluctantly, for the "good of the country" -- Joe's independent minded, you know, and always puts country ahead of party -- and that would give Connecticut's Republican governor Jodi Rell the opportunity to pick a replacement and swing the Senate to a 50-50 split with Darth Cheney representing the tie-breaking vote. The scenario has been a hot topic of speculation in so many of the Internet's tubes this week, including among our commenters.

But after thinking about it a bit, and discussing it behind the scenes with some of the other insightful writers around here, I think that's pretty darn unlikely for several reasons.

All of them boil down to the fact that while Holy Joe is a craven opportunist, a self-loathing Dem and a dedicated militarist, he's not stupid. He also has a big ego, and, like everyone in politics, wants as much power as possible.

The last two are why he'd never take the job -- or at least he'd need to be very stupid to do so. Consider:

• He'd be giving up a six-year Senate gig for a two-year cabinet position under a lame-duck president who at this point doesn't enjoy much support from legislators in either party.
• He'd be giving up a uniquely powerful Senate seat, the ultimate swing vote and the guy to whom everyone will have to kowtow.
• He'd be swapping that seat for job that he knows full well will be under the microscope in the next Congress. Whoever becomes the next SecDef is going to have one of the crappiest jobs in DC, spending much of his or her time fending off subpoenas, dodging questions from the press and testifying before pissed off legislators who want to distance themselves from their own votes for the Iraq war by tearing into the administration's most prominent representative on the issue.
• People with big egos want to be liked (I). Joe knows that his support for the War in Iraq hurt him with Connecticut voters -- hence his flip-flop during the campaign when he suddenly tried to morph into an anti-war candidate. Serving two years as GWB's SecDef as Iraq slips into further chaos would cement his legacy for all eternity as the Democrat who Supported Bush's Disastrous War More Fervently Than any Other. Nobody would even remember that he was the Veep nominee in 2000.
• People with big egos want to be liked (II). When Jim Jeffords flipped parties in 2001, he gave the Senate to the Dems and was hailed a hero in his deep "blue" home state of Vermont. Connecticut is just as Democratic, and Bush is ten times more unpopular than he was at that time. Connecticut voters would forever remember Joe as the guy who turned the Senate over to the GOP just after they expressed their hatred for Bush and his Congress at the polls. There'd be no hero's welcome back in New Haven, and Joe knows it.
• People with big egos want to be liked (III). Joe doesn't feel much obligation to the voters -- they're common rabble, after all -- but I imagine he cares quite a bit about how people view him within the power circles in which he travels. He cut a deal with Democratic leaders behind the scenes: in exchange for his support if he won, they'd offer Ned Lamont, the Dem nominee, only the most tepid possible support. I doubt he wants to be seen as a traitor among the DC cocktail party crowd.

Anyway, having made those last three points, let me say that I wouldn't die of shock if he simply switched parties, citing the destructive anti-Americanism of the Dems' left wing that Fox News' hosts always talk about. But he wouldn't take the worst job in Washington to swing the Senate just out of spite.