Dems Are Feeling It: The GOP Machine Can Be Beaten

In less than a week, Americans will go to the polls. It could be like other recent elections -- votes that recalled Shakespeare's line about a lot of "sound and fury, signifying nothing" -- or it could be an immense, cleansing wave washing away the worst period of one-party rule in American history.

The two parties will do what they will, but ordinary citizens -- the grass roots -- will largely determine which scenario will play out.

It may well be a historic moment. Next week has the potential to usher in a rare electoral realignment -- the kind of political shift that comes about once in a generation. The administration's disastrous consistency in everything it touches, from Iraq to Katrina to Terri Schiavo, could do for the progressive movement what Reagan's "revolution" did for the New Right -- move a whole generation of voters.

Analysts from across the spectrum agree that the Republican coalition is facing a perfect storm; it's not just the meat grinder Iraq has become and the boondoggle that's plagued its reconstruction. It's not just a host of scandals -- sexual, financial and electoral. It's not just an economy that's growing in aggregate but hasn't put more money into most people's pockets. It's not just the four million Americans who have fallen below the poverty line or the five million more Americans who lack health insurance since Bush was sworn in six years ago. It's all of those things combined with a profound sense of insecurity as health care and tuition costs skyrocket, jobs are shed overseas, Americans are neck-deep in debt, and the country's global leadership is being challenged even by staunch allies.

The reality is that these things are by no means all the Republicans' fault. But reality is less important than perception, and people tend to blame the party in power. This year, after four years of unchecked Republican dominance in D.C., people know which party holds the strings. That isn't always the case; in 2002, fewer than 30 percent of voters surveyed knew which party controlled the House of Representatives. As blogger Chris Bowers pointed out:

In 1980, 1994, and 2002, most voters (over 65 percent) thought Democrats were in charge of the House, and Democrats suffered real losses as a result. In 1982, 1986, 1996, and 1998, most voters (over 65 percent) thought Republicans were in charge of the House, and Republicans suffered real losses as a result.

For all of these reasons, the environment is ripe for a rare shift in the fundamental balance of partisan power. Congressional Quarterly calls the environment "toxic" for Republicans, and the Democrats, smelling blood, have fielded more credible challengers this year than in any cycle in recent memory.

RealClear Politics projects that Democrats -- who need 15 seats to take the House (but more than that to do what many progressives hope they will) -- will pick up 10-24 seats; Congressional Quarterly projects 8-26 pick-ups (PDF), and Pollster.com is looking at between 16 and 40.

Those are the conservative estimates. Stuart Rothenberg of the Rothenberg Political Report, says that "dangerously big waves can be very strong and very unpredictable" and, this year, "national numbers suggest a truly historic tidal wave."

With the national environment being as it is -- and given the last round of redistricting, which limits possible Democratic gains -- Republicans probably are at risk to lose as few as 45 seats and as many as 60 seats, based on historical results. Given how the national mood compares to previous wave years and to the GOP's 15-seat House majority, Democratic gains almost certainly would fall to the upper end of that range.

At this writing, there are 60 races that are separated by single digits in the polls, including some in deeply "red" states and others in districts that have been so gerrymandered that they wouldn't be in play during a normal election year.