Hugo Chávez' opponent becomes a crazy, wild-eyed populist

Soon, after our mid-terms, we'll start seeing coverage of Venezuela's upcoming presidential election. There'll be a blur of corporatist propaganda, Jackson Diehl will start churning out Washington Post columns based on the press releases of Zulia State Governor Manuel Rosales, and I'll be rhythmically banging my head against a wall in frustration.

The incumbent , Hugo Chávez, will get the extra special Swiftboat treatment this time around after his recent claim that Bush is, in fact, the Devil (a charge that nobody has managed to definitively disprove).

The narrative will be simple: wacky, out-of-control populist versus responsible, pro-American "free-market" technocrat. We'll hear things like: 'Rosales is campaigning on a platform of economic stability, increasing foreign investment and keeping inflation in check.'

The WSJ is already on the case, taking note of Venezuela's fiscal deficit -- unlike the one we face courtesy of Bush and Co., which is entirely OK -- that's resulted "As Chávez's Spending Outpaces Oil Gains" ($$).

But now, it seems, that there are suddenly two wild-eyed populists in the race; Rosales is in fact campaigning on a platform that's much like that of another candidate we know.The excellent Oil Wars blog posted some of Rosales' recent campaign materials, and they are stunning for their promises of statist, costly, quasi-socialistic policies to alleviate Venezuelan poverty through massive government intervention.

Meet the world's greatest welfare program, "Mi Negra":

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Oil wars:

The plan aims to take a big chunk of Venezuela's oil revenues and hand them out directly to people as a stipend of between $250 and $450 per month depending on oil revenues. This would be along the lines of what is called an "entitlement" in the United States. There would be nothing that the individuals getting this money would need to do. They wouldn't have to work, go to school, make sure their kids go to school or anything else. All they would have to do is sit at home and wait for the money to show up.

And for a frame of reference the minimum wage in Venezuela (which is what most people who have jobs earn) is about $200 dollars per month or maybe a little more with benefits. If you are wondering if there would be anyone left working after the implementation of this program you are not alone.

He's also offering a big-budget education plan:

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We're talking about free meals in all schools, free school supplies, new school construction and "a massive new plan to put people left out of public universities into private universities all expenses paid by the government." The cost? Sorry, Rosales didn't release a projection.

But that's not all! Bloomberg reported that Rosales promised last week to "keep and improve Chavez's social programs," so this is all in addition to current government spending (he's also proposed an ambitious anti-crime program that would cost billions more).

Oil Wars:

After looking at just a few of Rosales many proposals I think most people should be able to get the gist of it. The message of the Rosales campaign is "vote for me and I will give you money, in fact I will shower you with lots of money". There is a term for this: populism.

There's another term for it: desperation. Rosales trails Chávez by a wide margin in the polls (the exact margin varies according to the poll in question, but all are at least double-digits).

There's no escaping the fact that the Venezuelan opposition is an elite party with a very modest base of loyal supporters. That was clear recently when they held a "huge" rally, but only betwen 9,000 (according to Caracas police) and 12,000 (according to organizers) people showed. I thought the spin was entertaining; The Boston Globe wrote that "Thousands marched Saturday in the biggest show of public support yet for Venezuela's main opposition presidential candidate." That's right -- thousands! And the Conservative Voice wondered if the enormous turn-out signaled "The End of Hugo Chavez?" (The population of Greater Caracas is close to five million.)