Bush's (Possible) Five-Point Iraq Exit Strategy

For the time being, as Dick Cheney derides Ned Lamont voters as terror enablers and Karl Rove claims that Democrats "ignore the difficulties and walk away," the "stay the course" Iraq War/Election-2006 strategy will hold.

And while many are convinced the Green Zone Disneywarland in Baghdad is proof positive the Bush brain trust is in Iraq to stay, we should not discount the recent events in Lebanon and the deteriorating situation on the ground in Iraq, and their effects on the strategists deep inside the Pentagon and White House.

With Reagan's Beirut exit, Clinton's Somalia retreat and U.S. helicopter airlifts in Saigon still vivid memories for many a neocon, a defeat in Iraq would be a crushing blow. With a virtual lock on every branch of government -- who's to blame? So when they see 10,000 Iranian manufactured and delivered rockets raining on Israel at will, they have to wonder.

How easy would it be for the Iraq insurgents to import rockets from neighboring Iran? How hard would it be to hide those rockets in a wild and chaotic Baghdad? And what are the chances that insurgents could launch 30 to 40 rockets directly into the Green Zone in one day? The headlines around the world reading "500 U.S. Dead -- Last Safe Haven Under Siege?" The result? Game over.

So one has to assume discussions are taking place on an exit strategy. And since this is the Bush administration, where reality is irrelevant, truth is secondary and public relations victories are all-important, let's play exit strategy, Bush style.

People forget that people forget.

Let me say it again in a different way … in case you forgot. Progressives forget that Americans forget. But Karl Rove doesn't. And if the instant media switch to "All Israel, All Lebanon, All the Time" doesn't convince you how ready America is to forget the Iraq war, just you wait.

In a recent Sunday New York Times, Frank Rich documented how Lebanon instantly replaced the Iraq war on cable and broadcast news, even as one of the more incredible stories of the entire war appeared that week, also in the Times -- the July 19 cover story -- "Iraq Death Toll Rises Above 100 Per Day, U.N. Says."

For months, as Iraq deteriorated, the press danced around the term "civil war." And then in one fell swoop, the U.N. reported death rates triple the rates for May 2006 (969 up to 2,669) and quadruple the figures reported in June (738 up to 3,149) that were commonly reported using the Iraq Coalition Casualty Report. The Times called the figures "an enormous increase over figures published by media organizations and by nongovernmental organizations that track these trends."

That same day, one Baghdad suicide bombing alone killed 53 and wounded at least 105. And when the Iraqi police arrived, they were stoned by the crowd! What would have been major cover stories only a year earlier were now buried in newsprint and glanced over on TV news. So how does this stew of denial, chaos and civil war translate into a victory march?

Here's one scenario.

Phase One: Transitional civil war

It starts with the generals: Bush, Cheney and Rumsfeld repeatedly remind us they are driving the car. Remember, Bush is too strong to follow public opinion when it comes to troop strength or other strategic and tactical decisions. He listens to his experts on the ground. So the first step will be a gradual adjusting of the recent generals' "civil war" analysis from a negative sounding "slide" into a more positive and uplifting "transition." This new phase will, of course, require a fresh tactical and strategic approach and further study by the military.

Phase Two: Iraqi government asks us to leave

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki, standing proudly with his military and security team, will make a major address thanking the Americans for everything accomplished thus far and announce: "We can take it from here." He will ask our troops to retreat to the borders in virtually the same strategic role suggested by congressman Murtha, but this won't be a "cut and run" approach suggested by wimpy Democrat. It will be a carefully determined strategy created by Iraq military brass and the freely elected and independent government of Iraq.