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Evidence of Election Fraud Grows in México

By Chuck Collins and Joshua Holland, AlterNet. Posted August 2, 2006.


As the U.S. media distorts the aftermath of the July 2 election, evidence suggests there may be an attempted theft in progress.
080206_story1
Hundreds of thousands gather in the Mexican capital on July 16 to protest the election results.

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A month after more than 41 million Mexicans went to the polls to elect their next president, the country is still awaiting a result. A preliminary count of polling station tally sheets put conservative Felipe Calderón of the National Action Party (PAN) ahead with a slight lead over left-populist Andres Manuel López Obrador of the Democratic Revolution Party (PRD). Both candidates have claimed victory, with López Obrador and his supporters holding vigils and protests across the country and calling for a vote-by-vote recount.

That hasn't kept a consensus from emerging in the commercial media that Calderón won by a small margin in a squeaky-clean election. In a hyperbolic editorial on July 30 -- one that bordered on the ridiculous -- the Washington Post accused López Obrador, known as AMLO to his supporters, of taking "a lesson from Joseph Stalin" and launching an "anti-democracy campaign" by demanding a manual recount and urging his supporters to take to the streets in peaceful protests. Calling the vote "a success story and a model for other nations," the editors concluded that it's "difficult to overstate the irresponsibility of Mr. López Obrador's actions."

Days after the election, the New York Times irresponsibly declared candidate Calderón the winner, even though no victor had been declared under Mexican law, and just this week, in an article about López Obrador's protests, the Times reported that López Obrador had "escalated his campaign to undo official results."

But there are no "official" results and probably won't be until after Sept. 1. Under Mexican law, the Federal Electoral Institute (IFE) is charged with running the elections and counting the vote. But only the country's Election Tribunal, known by its Mexican nickname as the "TRIFE," has the power to declare a victor (See here for background on the TRIFE). They have until Sept. 6 to rule on the election.

It appears that the U.S. media has become so enamored with the construct of the "anti-democratic" left in Latin America -- the ubiquitous "fiery populists" (a term that has described everyone from the centrist Lula da Silva to Hugo Chávez) -- that they are incapable of fulfilling their basic mandate to inform their readers when it comes to the political landscape south of the border. It's nothing short of journalistic malpractice.

But back in the real world, a growing body of credible evidence from mainstream Mexican journalists, independent election observers and respected scholars indicates that an attempt was made to deliver the presidency to Calderón. It includes a pattern of irregularities at the polls, interference by the ruling party and some very suspicious statistical patterns in the "official" results.

The TRIFE is now sifting through 900 pages of formal complaints lodged by López Obrador. Their ruling on those challenges will indicate how well México's electoral process holds up in a closely fought and highly polarized race.

Growing evidence of irregularities and fraud

México has a history of the party in power's using its clout to tip the election in its favor, and strict laws prohibiting ruling party interference were enacted in the 1990s. Election law prevented Vicente Fox, the outgoing PAN president, from making public statements of a partisan or political nature. But he overstepped this line many times in the 2006 campaign, including dozens of speeches reinforcing candidate Felipe Calderón's basic message that López Obrador was a "danger to México." In a well-publicized speech, candidate López Obrador responded, "With all respect, Mr. President, shut up. You sound like a chattering bird." Fox continued with these speeches until election authorities and public commentators warned Fox he was violating election laws.

The Fox administration also ran public service announcements touting government programs and services and promoting the vote. PAN saturated the television airwaves with "swift-boat" style attack ads against López Obrador, comparing him to Venezuela's Hugo Chávez and calling him a "danger to México." Election authorities eventually ordered these commercials off the air on the grounds that they were untrue and maligned the candidate's character, but critics believe they moved too slowly.


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Chuck Collins is the co-author of "Economic Apartheid in America: A Primer on Economic Inequality and Insecurity" (New Press). He is a senior scholar at the Institute for Policy Studies and lives in Oaxaca, México. Joshua Holland is an AlterNet staff writer.

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View:
Lopez Obrador aka Joseph Stalin
Posted by: HeroesAll on Aug 2, 2006 2:32 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
the Washington Post accused López Obrador, known as AMLO to his supporters, of taking "a lesson from Joseph Stalin" and launching an "anti-democracy campaign" by demanding a manual recount and urging his supporters to take to the streets in peaceful protests.

Because it's well known that Stalin's most feared tactic was the street protest. And a manual recount of votes, as we all know, is contrary to all democratic principles, and will undoubtedly destroy Civilisation As We Know It (hereinafter referred to as CAWKI).

Ptchah. WaPo is such a handmaiden of the right (and I'm using the very genteel term here, not the one that springs to mind). I'm just waiting for one of the doofus posters here to do the usual whining about the 'left wing media'.

Very nice work again, Josh and Chuck. Looking forward to more in this saga. It's going to be a long-running one, I can tell. Like Days of Our Lives.

Actually, on further thought, a recount probably would destroy CAWKI. Remember 2000? Who did, and who didn't, want a recount? Can't let that sort of thing catch on, you know.

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Plutocratic back-scratching
Posted by: shangrilalad on Aug 2, 2006 4:06 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Can anyone remember an election in Mexico that the “RIGHT” didn’t win?

Strange how the plutocracy in the U.S. always supports the plutocracy in other countries. Both the Washington Post and New York Times are owned by multimillionaires which I think includes them in our plutocracy.

Even after all the Republican tax cuts they’ve received, our billionaires are reportedly still cheating on the taxes. How much money do they need to satisfy them? I have a theory that goes like this: Some rich people act as if they think they can bribe death if they have enough money. It works with politicians, so maybe it will work with the Grim Reaper.

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only good conclusion
Posted by: rsaxto on Aug 2, 2006 4:21 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Since there is so much real evidence of vote fraud in the Mexican election the only good way to explain the refusal to recount votes and the big media drumbeat against recounting of votes follows: the best conclusion is that there is enormous collusion in government/major media to cover up vote fraud and to have a false president elected just as happened in 2000 USA. The same people, organizations, medias and corporations that stole 2000 are hard at work to try to steal the 2006 Mexico election. If they succeed it will be clear that most USA people still! believe the crooks.

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Fraud -- or politics as usual?
Posted by: jules_siegel on Aug 2, 2006 4:32 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
It all still looks like politics as usual to me. The undue influence charges are serious, but they aren't the same as voter fraud.

The argument about the higher vote count in the voting stations without PRD observers raises the question why the PRD would expect a lot of votes in areas in which it couldn't even come up with poll watchers.

The statistical arguments are highly speculative, at best. Using the PREP is considered poor statistical practice. That's why López Obrador got off the cyberfraud charges right away and, in fact, explicitly denied any claims of cyberfraud. He then reversed himself a day later. I checked with R. Mansilla, who did the Benford's Law study on the PREP results and he admitted that he could not say if the variations he saw were statitistically significant -- a minor point, I'm sure.

Vote buying or providing social services?

Vote buying is an old story that has never been proven to have any effect on how people actually vote. It was raised during the 2000 election, but an opinion study at the time clearly demonstrated that even if true (dubious in most cases) it was not in any way a significant factor.

A survey carried out in May, 2000, by the nonprofit watchdog group Alianza Cívica (reported by Mexico Solidarity Network, Weekly News Summary May 22-31 2000) suggested that of the 24% of the Mexican population which receives federal welfare aid of some sort, 11% feel obligated to vote for a particular party (in most cases, the PRI) in return for their aid. In the countryside the figure rises to 14%, and is 18% among those Mexicans living in extreme poverty. The story also reported that the opposition in Guerrero (if I remember correctly), then a PRI stronghold, admitted it was unable to come up with any concrete examples of vote-buying.

Assuming that the survey is properly constructed (a very big assumption) what it is really saying is that 89% don't feel obligated. Of those who do feel obligated, not all will vote for the PRI. Then there is the semantic question of what "obligated" means. How would this change if the question were phrased differently? Gratitude? Loyalty? Finally, how many votes does this all add up to? At the most, a part of 11% of those receiving the benefits?

This is an area in which you should be especially wary. Vote buying is usually a neo-Liberal code word for providing desperately needed public assistance and social services. Hugo Chávez is routinely accused of vote buying, isn't he? That would include setting up free medical clinics all over Venezuela, I guess, staffed by Cuban doctors.

Criminal fraud

The area you should look into is criminal fraud, which would be handled by the Fedape, the Federal District Attorney for Election Crime. Is the PRD pressing any charges of criminal voter fraud? If so, what are they?

Their web page is at http://www.pgr.gob.mx/fepade/fepade/ANTECEDENTES.htm

Email: fepadenet@pgr.gob.mx and fiscalenlinea@pgr.gob.net

At http://www.pgr.gob.mx/fepade/directorio/mapa.asp you will find a directory of contacts with telephone and fax numbers.

The top person is María de los Ángeles Fromow Rangel. Her phone number is (0155) 5346-3101 in Mexico.

I'll be very interested to learn what you find out. I am in the middle of a huge and very demanding project on a very tight deadline. Otherwise, I'd do this myself. Good luck to you.

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» RE: Fraud -- or politics as usual? Posted by: Joshua Holland
» RE: Fraud -- or politics as usual? Posted by: jules_siegel
» RE: Fraud -- or politics as usual? Posted by: Joshua Holland
WORST EVER SECURITY FLAW FOUND IN DIEBOLD TS VOTING MACHINE
Posted by: Liberalandproudofit on Aug 2, 2006 4:49 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Open Voting Foundation Managed to aquire a Diebold TS Voting Machine and discovered that a screwdriver is all that is needed to get the machine to load uncertified code.

ALL the certification and testing in the world is useless if a person managed to get physical access to the machine. And cities and counties are asking for "voluteers" to move the machines.

Sounds like herr Bush and company are already planning to rig the election

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» except.... Posted by: brasilaron
"Lies, damned lies, and statistics." -- Mark Twain
Posted by: Sojourner on Aug 2, 2006 6:45 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
The statistical studies are interesting but hardly conclusive of anything. Statistics are a tool. They are not knowledge. Rather than revise reality because a set of statistics comes up in an unexpected fashion, maybe it's the tool that needs revising.

Yes, I expect that computer voting needs more safeguards. But sometimes tea leaf readers do a better job than number technicians.

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Maybe AMLO has learned from Gore
Posted by: Uncle Tupelo on Aug 2, 2006 7:35 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Don't be timid. Demand a full and accurate count, and fight in every court of law and court of opinion to get that and nothing less. Get your people on the street and keep them there. If people in your inner circle are advising you to back down, kick them to the curb. Ignore the establishment media, or make the case directly to the people that they too are part of the corrupt system. Don't be timid.

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» RE: Maybe AMLO has learned from Gore Posted by: Joshua Holland
» RE: Maybe AMLO has learned from Gore Posted by: Joshua Holland
» RE: Maybe AMLO has learned from Gore Posted by: Joshua Holland
» RE: Maybe AMLO has learned from Gore Posted by: Joshua Holland
on the right
Posted by: mrjones on Aug 2, 2006 8:45 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
They believe that all is fair in love, war, and elections! If there was fraud so what? Whoever wins wins because they had a stronger team willing to fight harder. Never mind that the other team outnumbers them and would win a truly free and fair election. Fairness doesn't count, only might makes right (no pun intended). And when anybody complains about the lack of fairness they can accuse them of being big cry babies. On the right they'll use any tactic they can get away with to achieve all that their little hearts desire. In many cases they know they're going to get caught sooner or later, and that justice may eventually triumph, but in the mean time they use their illegitimate power to wreak havoc and steal everything they can lay their gubby little paws on, so even if they lose they still win. Sometimes it seems that there's no real way to fight against the injust who are willing to pepetrate every kind of injustice in order to obtain and maintain power for their selfish ends.

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» RE: on the right Posted by: Liger
» RE: on the right Posted by: harinama
» RE: on the right Posted by: bassman
arguments and beliefs
Posted by: aemulus on Aug 2, 2006 10:31 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
As you have noticed, constructive discussion may be performed when everybody understands the topics and the evidence. In this case, the arguments are in a special level of knowledge. Ciberfraud and statistics are not stuff that every mexican may talk about, so argumentation falls in the level of what people believes. Politicians and media know that, so we are in a war about credibility.
Which one would you believe most?
a)A candidate able to speak to bankers, middle class, CEO´s, but not identified with low-income mexicans ; or
b) a candidate that speaks directly to the people ("el pueblo"), and likes to send malicious messages to bankers, commerce and industrial associations and even the president.

And seeing this in a different perspective, a peer told me, "if there is a fraud, involving IFE, international observers, civilians, media, and some organizations (almost a million and a half people)...and if there is a person leading it , that is the person we need to lead the country"

It is all about beliefs and credibility...

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» RE: arguments and beliefs Posted by: jules_siegel
» Fraud and Astrophysics Posted by: YinRising
» RE: arguments and beliefs Posted by: ivansg
Not to worry (hopefully)
Posted by: Patrick_Ross on Aug 2, 2006 10:35 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Historically, Mexico is a fairly politically volatile society with a strong revolutionary tendency.
This tends to go hand-in-hand with a government that, in many respects, follows the populist tendency to listen to the people. It's considered that people marching in the streets are a breath away from a civilian coup d'etat.
The recount will happen. Whether or not any of the candidates in this election are fit to lead is another question entirely.

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Your theory is right on!
Posted by: starvinmarvy on Aug 2, 2006 11:26 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Thats it brother! And they STILL DON`T GET IT! The filthy rich have an unquenchable desire for more wealth.Fact is....
they`re still gonna die.Fact is....they`ll see after their last breath how they`ve done so many wrong!!Fact is...after that last breath and they review that life that they once thought of
as "brillant maneuvers and HARD WORK"...as now a "pathetic,
rueful,...SAD waste of a lifetime. Until these so called "human beings" that hold the wealth of this planet in their hands.......
finally realize that its so much more important to help your fellow man ....than to build personal wealth and power....we will all continue to do ....and die....whatever and whenever they want. And that includes the so called leaders of this country!

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US will never have to worry about a populist government
Posted by: jreinhart1 on Aug 2, 2006 11:30 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
The Secret State of America could care less about votes. It's all been decided before the elections except for some local issues. I certainly won't vote again until Diebold is killed off and evoting machines can print out a pair of "carbon" copies, one for the voter and the copy for QA against the electronic voting machine tally.

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THAT'S WHY IT IS TIME FOR US TO DO THE SAME THING
Posted by: krose on Aug 2, 2006 6:43 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
NEXT TIME, IF OUR VOTE IS TAMPERED WITH LIKE THE LAST 2 TIMES.......................

WE MUST TAKE TO THE STREETS, LIKE THEY DID IN THE UKRAINE, AND IN MEXICO!

IT IS THE ONLY ANSWER TO TAKING OUR COUNTRY BACK FROM THE CROOKS, LIARS, AND THIEVES WHO HAVE IT NOW!

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What fraud?
Posted by: Mex on Aug 2, 2006 6:53 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
But back in the real world, a growing body of credible evidence from mainstream Mexican journalists, independent election observers and respected scholars indicates that an attempt was made to deliver the presidency to Calderón.

There is only one important newspaper (La Jornada, not "La Journada") who claims that there was a fraud and this newspaper is very well know to be very attached to the PRD party and his candidate.

About the international observers, non of them found any evidence or indication of fraud before or during the election and Chuck Collins' article doesn't give any sustainable evidence of a "fraud", he even write that non of the reports that he has quoted "constitute a smoking gun".

Is very valid to demand a recount, but that decision doesn't belong to the candidates, belongs to the electoral court, 'El TRIFE', according to the electoral law (approved even by the PRD).

Comparing this election with the fraud of 1988, or with the USA election of 2000, is a BIG disproportion. The electoral system right now is much better than the one in 1988 and even better than the USA. By the way, one of the Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) supporters, Manuel Barlett (from the PRI party) among others, were one of the arquitecs of the 1988 election fraud against Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas linked text

Now, does AMLO represent the real left in México, I don't think so. He represente the old PRI with a democrat custom or, if you want, that "exotic populism" that some progressive people in the USA love, but damage the economy and the institutions of a country.

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» RE: What fraud? Posted by: Joshua Holland
Mea Culpa
Posted by: YogiBear on Aug 2, 2006 7:16 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Wait a minute. I coulda sworn that the Alternet was sure that Mexico's election would be the bastion of democratic fairness compared to the USA. Will someone be eating his words?

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» Maybe Tea Culpa Posted by: Joshua Holland
» Retract this Posted by: YogiBear
Felipe Calderon chosen by God.
Posted by: Jesse Cristo on Aug 2, 2006 8:43 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Clearly God's hand is behind the wonderful victory of Felipe Calderon. It is a message from Heaven itself that only our President's fervent supporters will enjoy victory. Scurrilous accusations of election fraud from leftists cannot sully the beauty of Calderon's divine legitimacy. Obrador represents the Mexican rabble, whose collective mind is as dark as it is ignorant. They will believe any lie which elevates their victim status and whets an appetite for entitlements. These people cannot be trusted to make good political choices any more than the Palestinians - who elected Hamas. May the Lord bless Mexico and Calderon as they join America in a righteous turn to neo-conservatism.

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» RE: Felipe Calderon chosen by God. Posted by: Joshua Holland
» RE: Felipe Calderon chosen by God. Posted by: Joshua Holland
» RE: Felipe Calderon chosen by God. Posted by: Jesse Cristo
» Sacrilege Posted by: Joshua Holland
» RE: Sacrilege Posted by: xbj
» xbj Posted by: Joshua Holland
» RE: xbj Posted by: xbj
Glad to See Democracy still survives in NA in Mexico and Canada
Posted by: xbj on Aug 2, 2006 9:02 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
On the eve of Democracy's death and complete morphing into Fascism and Fascist Empire in the United States, it sure is encouraging to see it still alive and kicking in Mexico and Canada.

Perhaps there is hope after all, without China and Russia having to nuke the US off the face of the planet.

Time WILL tell.

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In the meantime...
Posted by: AnaB on Aug 2, 2006 9:48 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Im not sure how many people are aware but Vicente Fox has already named an interim president in case the controversy is not settled by the time he leaves office. This person is one of the founders of the PRD party and a sort of creepy power hungry former presidential candidate in 1994. His name is Chuautemoc Cardenas and many believe he won the 1994 election but was bribed by the PRI into keeping quiet and accept defeat. Ironically the only other candidate from 1994 to protest the election on behalf of Cardenas was the PAN candidate and he was myseriously killed shortly after the election. Cardenas ran for president in 2000 and wanted to run in 2006 but he had little support. It is a well known fact that he doesnt like AMLO and refused to throw his support behind his own party's candidate during this presidential election.
One can only interpret Fox naming him interim president as another effort to bribe a powerful figure withing the PRD party. And, its a well known fact that Cardenas is open for business.

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» RE: In the meantime... Posted by: Joshua Holland
» RE: In the meantime... Posted by: JDMB
» RE: In the meantime... Posted by: AnaB
if there is an elephant in front of you and you don't see it...
Posted by: wake-up on Aug 3, 2006 2:53 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
mexican society is polarized, so people are a bit to keen on quick answers with little reflection or analysis. if people took their time, did a little reading and went beyond their partisan feelings perhaps they would by now know that the math doesn't add up. there are a total of around 1.5 million votes that have no backing on paper. what that means is that after a comparison of copies of certificates from every electoral booth (which all parties now have) with the information from the electronic counting of the votes which is posted on the internet by the federal electoral institute (IFE), there are more votes than voters. 1,5 million of them... when mr.calderon's advantage in the official count is of around 240,000 it makes it hard not to DEMAND a vote by vote recount. I would think any citizen that believes in democracy regardless of who they voted for would agree with this.

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Statistician uses Benford's Law to Conclude Recount Needed
Posted by: El_Cid on Aug 3, 2006 5:35 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Walter R. Mebane, Jr., political scientist and scholar in the application of statistical methods to political behavior, has performed a statistical test to the published IFE results and concluded that a recount is likely needed, though of course he is only concluding that the election results have deviated too much from an expected distribution than desirable, and cannot conclude why.

In a paper prepared for 23rd Annual Summer Meeting of the Society for Political Methodology, July 20-22, 2006 (available as a PDF for download HERE) he studies election results from Florida in 2004 and from Mexico in 2006.

He employs a statistical analysis based on Benford's law, which has to do with the observation that in looking to large samples (such as voting or census data), there is actually a predictable distribution of how often the digits (i.e., 0-9) should appear in a certain position (in Mebane's analysis, the 2nd digit from the left), and that if the digits appear to skew very far from the expected distribution, then there may be a problem, such as errors or some type of fraud ('fraud' may include cases in which data is made up or manipulated for other reasons than aiming at a desired result, i.e., no one ever originally gathered the data and they're making it up).

In this paper I study a statistical method intended to help detect election fraud. Other methods, using regression- based techniques for outlier detection, have previously been proposed to help detect election anomalies... The method described here is distinctive in that it does not require that we have covariates to which we may reasonably assume the votes are related across political jurisdictions. The method is based on tests of the distribution of the digits in reported vote counts, so all that is needed are the vote counts themselves. Being based on so little information, the method cannot in itself diagnose whether an anomaly it may flag is a consequence of fraud or of some other kind of irregularity. But, as I show, some patterns of fraud will cause the method to trigger. So the method is best understood as an indicator for places where investigations that use other kinds of information -- for instance, audits of election administration records and manual ballot recounts -- might best be targeted.

He concludes that there is enough departure from the expected model at his level of analysis to warrant a manual recount, whether of a sample or, of course, a complete recount.

The 2BL {2nd digit Benford's Law} test results for secciones certainly suggest there are problems with the 2006 presidential vote counts in many Mexican states, although probably not in most of them. More refined analysis is needed to reach sharper conclusions, but the general impression is that more intensive investigation of the election results is in order. That might include doing a manual recount of many -- perhaps all -- of the individual ballots. A cost efficient method may be to begin by recounting a random sample of the ballots -- all the ballots in a sample of secciones -- where the probability that a seccion is selected for recounting is greater in places where the 2BL test results are worse. For such an exercise it may be reasonable to conduct 2BL tests for secciones collected into sets that correspond to the legislative districts they are part of, with sampling for purposes of initial recounting done at the level of districts. Perhaps a two-stage sampling plan could be used, with districts selected at the first stage (weighted by the 2BL test results) and secciones within each district selected at the second stage. If such an initial sampling did identify problems with the vote tabulations, then the case for a comprehensive manual recount would become extremely strong.

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My friend in Mexico tells me.....
Posted by: harvsss on Aug 3, 2006 11:19 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
My friend in Mexico tells me that it is true that the court will give it's decision in Sept.

He also told me that Obrador was too far to the left and he did not vote for him.

See the propaganda machine works just fine in Mexico too. He voted aginst his own best intrest. Somehow(the media), he had been convinced that Obrador was just like the commie Chaves. I explained to him that all the BS about Chavez was just that. I told him about what I know about Chavez that he did not know. He thought that Chavez was a commie and bad for his country(the usual BS). I told him how Chavez had done many good things for his country and the Republican press has painted him a bad picture. Obrador is a man of the people and I hope he prevales. I hope that Mexico can have the democracy they should have and not one like here in the EEUU(Estadoe Unidos-USA.

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REBUTTAL, part 1
Posted by: JDMB on Aug 3, 2006 5:29 PM   
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There are so many factual errors in this piece, it’s really disappointing (especially considering that Chuck Collins “…lives in Oaxaca, Mexico”; he either wrote the inaccuracies, or at least vetted the article and didn’t catch them), and I don’t know where to start. And would that this post not get lost among all the other posting in this blog, but rather received similar prominence as the original article. And for the record: I’m not a Republican, Conservative or Right-Winger: I consider myself a progressive, open-minded, bi-cultural individual who appreciates few things as much as looking at both sides of an issue.

In a hyperbolic editorial on July 30 … the Washington Post accused López Obrador, … of taking "a lesson from Joseph Stalin": Actually, it was AMLO (or at least his party, PRD) that quoted Stalin (and Wikipedia, curiously) in its 800-plus page complaint lodged before TRIFE, where, incidentally, they never ask for a full recount: that has been handled exclusively in the media, never in the formal petition before TRIFE (although they did present arguments for the annulment of the election, which they have publicly stated they do not seek: then why present arguments for something you don’t want?).

The Fox administration also ran public service announcements touting government programs and services and promoting the vote. In the interests of fairness and balance ( :D ) you should have pointed out that all governments do the same in Mexico: indeed, some of the allegations in this regard concern not only the federal government but state governments as well ((PAN & PRI, of course, never PRD). The Mexico City (PRD) government did the same, and continues to this date, with huge banners hanging from government buildings in support of AMLO during the election and now during the recount effort. And when AMLO “suggested” (“What do you say, shall we stay here until we get the recount? All those in favor raise your hands. Those opposed raise your hands. Motion carried.” I wouldn’t raise my hand in objection in that crowd) taking over the Zócalo and blocking the main thoroughfares of the city (which is something he said he would not do, and is in direct violation of an edict AMLO personally put into place while mayor of Mexico City: look up Bando 13 forbidding setting up camps on city thoroughfares), the city’s PRD government refuses to enforce the law citing the protesters’ right to assembly and free speech. Isn’t the government supposed to enforce the laws for everyone, not just those with whom it agrees? But I digress…

López Obrador's campaign and hundreds of independent election observers documented several hundred cases of "old fashioned" election-day fraud in making their case for a recount. Actually, they haven’t presented any such proof: the lower courts in the TRIFE system are rejecting virtually all such claims because the proof just isn’t there. For instance, a video of “ballot-box stuffing” turned out to be the precinct president placing ballots for a different race (senator, congressman) that were incorrectly deposited in the presidential ballot-box – as required under law and with the consent of the party reps, including PRD’s. This incident led to said rep’s public disavowal of AMLO’s charges, which in turn led him to say that “some party reps sold out.” Talk about being loyal to your troops…

there weren't enough independent and party observers to go around. In regions where one party was dominant, this created opportunities for vote shaving, ballot stuffing, lost ballots and other forms of fraud. Again: not documented at all. I believe a famous Greek philosopher summed it up nicely: “Woulda, coulda, shoulda.”

To be continued...

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» RE: BUTTAL, part 1 Posted by: alternorock
REBUTTAL, part 2
Posted by: JDMB on Aug 3, 2006 5:32 PM   
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One analysis of IFE results found that there were 2,366 polling places where only a PAN observer was present. In these districts, Calderón beat López Obrador by a whopping 71-21 margin. Where were these districts? If they were in PAN strongholds, wouldn’t you expect a result like that? And why weren’t there any observers from different parties? Could they have concluded that they were going to lose in those districts anyway and decided to concentrate on those districts where the results might be closer? Getting more “bang for their buck”, as it were?

Other elements of PRD's legal challenge include documentation of several ballot boxes found in dumps in the PRD stronghold of México City. This was investigated and turned out to be a red herring (or is it a Macguffin?), just like the ballot-box-stuffing video. They also point to evidence such as the nonpartisan Civic Alliance's report documenting 17 polling sites in PAN-dominated Nuevo León, Michoacán and Querétaro, where the number of votes cast vastly exceeded the number of registered voters at a site. This is more serious, and is one of the (few) legitimate questions raised being dealt with by TRIFE.

… But the cumulative evidence is damning in such a closely contested race. Again: What evidence? I’m not a lawyer (thank God), but it seems to me that there has to be an intention, a will to do something wrong for it to be fraud, otherwise it can be something as simple as human error due to lack of education, lack of training, unintentional transposition of numbers, writing the number in the wrong box, not pressing down hard enough on the carbon copy, etc.

In the weeks after the election, PRD observers again sounded the alarm as sealed ballot packets were being illegally opened at IFE district offices in several PAN-dominated regions. You might have mentioned that these packets were being opened at the request of PRD reps (PRD sure didn’t mention it; I wonder why?); and in any event, the ballots themselves were not touched (they’re sealed in a separate bag within the packet), only the tally sheets and other documentation was being withdrawn – at the request of PRD in most cases. The TRIFE ordered these offices to stop opening vote packets: to avoid malicious allegations of wrongdoing, because the procedures were legal and done with the knowledge of party officials.

To be continued again...

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REBUTTAL, part 3
Posted by: JDMB on Aug 3, 2006 5:34 PM   
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For the 2006 election, the IFE had developed a sophisticated system to provide preliminary results called the PREP. Actually, PREP has been in place since 2000. Relying on results being phoned in from a sample of precincts, the IFE could compile a credible picture of the vote. First of all, the PREP is the tally of all the precincts, not of a sample: the sampling is done with some 7,000-plus precincts, geographically and socio-economically distributed to give a 0.3% (not a typo: zero point three percent) margin of error. This “quick count” or conteo rápido is what would have …allowed Mexicans to go to sleep on election night knowing who their next president would be. But the result was so close no winner could be determined this way, so IFE didn’t release the results that night (as it turns out, probably a mistake). IFE’s chairman went on national TV to say just that, and ask the candidates to please refrain from claiming victory until the formal count on Wednesday. President Fox went on TV right after to say the same thing. So within minutes, AMLO went out to claim victory by half a million votes, claiming to have the actas to prove it. (He’s never produced those actas; they would seem to constitute evidence, don’t you think?). Calderón (in a political mistake, in my opinion), felt obliged to follow with his own claim of victory, citing half a dozen exit polls and PAN’s own copies of the actas (and PAN has set up an exhibit in Mexico City of copies of all 130,477 actas for all to see – now that sounds like evidence).

I’m not a statistician, so I can’t comment on the work of López and Mochan. However, other statisticians have taken issue with their conclusions. And Mochan states that “…I understand that no booth was to receive more than 750 votes.” This is a mistake: special polling booths were set up all over the country for people who were traveling or otherwise out of their immediate city of residence, to vote for president only; all the parties unanimously agreed to have only 750 ballots available at these special booths, and it is well documented that they were grossly insufficient for the demand (and surely had some impact on the level of non-voting registered).

Whether it was human error or intentional vote shaving, in a tight election race, these examples gain heightened significance. Completely agree: but to imply by inference that there was fraud no matter what, you do a disservice to your readers.

None of these reports in and of themselves constitute a smoking gun. Again: the inference is that there was a smoking gun, it just hasn’t been found.

A poll released this week found that Mexicans, by a 20-point margin (48-28), want a vote-by-vote count. What about the other polls that show Mexicans believe by an even larger margin that the elections were clean and transparent? And that IFE did a good job despite the criticisms? And that AMLO’s support is dropping steadily? López Obrador has said he will call off protests when the Tribunal agrees to a recount and will honor its final decision. Actually, he has said he will honor the decision – provided it isn’t that Calderón won. Repeatedly.

Just one more...

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» RE: BUTTAL, part 3 Posted by: ivansg
» re: REBUTTAL, part 3 Posted by: JDMB
» RE: re: REBUTTAL, part 3 Posted by: ivansg
» RE: BUTTAL, part 3 Posted by: ivansg
» re: REBUTTAL, part 3 Posted by: JDMB
REBUTTAL, part 4 (and last)
Posted by: JDMB on Aug 3, 2006 5:34 PM   
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President and PAN leader Vicente Fox called for direct action when he believed he was victimized by electoral fraud in his race for the governorship of Guanajuato in 1991. Key point: 1991. The current rules were enacted in 1996, and you yourselves point out that the situation today is very different. Fox called on thousands of supporters to take to the streets and block highways, ... Asked before the 2000 presidential election if he would do the same thing if he suspected fraud, he didn't hesitate to say “… If there is any instability … it will be due to whatever they have done fraudulently to avoid recognizing our victory." 2000 was the first election under the new rules, and nobody knew what to expect; besides, PRI was still in power and has a well-earned reputation for electoral dirty tricks; and it wasn’t a statistical tie, Fox was way ahead in the polls. To not mention these differences in this paragraph is misleading.

While Calderón has opposed a ballot-by-ballot recount, he has stated that he will abide by whatever the TRIFE decides, including recognizing AMLO as the winner if that is what the recount shows. AMLO has said just the opposite. And indeed, Calderón’s opposition is a political mistake: rather than insist that the votes have been counted and that he is the winner, he should just keep quiet and go along with whatever TRIFE decides. But AMLO is imploding: even La Jornada is starting to criticize his stance and actions. But in the end, you’re right: everybody must wait for TRIFE’s decision and abide by it. And when AMLO doesn’t, I’ll be back to say “I told you so.”

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