Snubbing Iran, Courting Catastrophe

By Elizabeth Spiro Clark, TomPaine.com. Posted May 24, 2006.

Meetings that were to have been held Friday over Iran's nuclear status between the "EU-3" (Germany, France, and the United Kingdom), the U.S., Russia and China have been postponed. It is no wonder that talks are in trouble. It's not just that the Iranians have rejected the latest European "carrots and sticks" proposal: U.S. ambassador to the U.N. John Bolton stated that the U.S. reserves the right to reject the proposal as well. The U.S. already rejects negotiating with the Iranians, either directly or by joining the Europeans at the table--a course of action former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright has recommended, as have European governments and U.N. Secretary General Kofi Annan.

Why on earth would Iran accept a proposal when it knows the U.S. is waiting in the wings to up the ante? The EU "precursor" negotiations track is completely useless unless and until the U.S. joins for face-to-face comprehensive negotiations with the Iranians, including a discussion of security guarantees.

While serious negotiations are left in limbo, Iranian President Ahmadinejad is free to jet around the world, playing the hero to cheering anti-American crowds, most recently in Indonesia where his rabble-rousing undermined moderate Indonesian President Yudhoyono's efforts to tamp down Islamic radicalism. The longer the U.S. refuses to negotiate, the longer Iran will have to build up support. How is this good for our country? The U.S. ought to try and make Yudhoyono's job easier, not harder.

What's wrong with negotiating? Negotiations bore fruit with Libya's Moammar Gadhafi. It took eight years, but U.S.-Libyan relations are now normalized. There is no good reason not to join negotiations with Iran. What would be on the table? Iran has offered to let the U.N.'s nuclear arm, the IAEA, return to full inspections if the case is taken out of the Security Council and returned to the IAEA. Certainly Iranian behavior has fully justified suspicions of its intentions and a referral to the Security Council. Iran has not, however, renounced its membership in the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and, in fact, is in minimal compliance with its obligations as a member. Ahmadinejad has said that inspections may resume if the matter is taken out of the Security Council (where the U.S. is working towards a mandatory sanctions vote against Russian and Chinese opposition) and returned to the IAEA. There is no reason to reject discussion of such a proposal.

Bush, however, has undoubtedly not forgotten that IAEA head Mohamed ElBaradei defied him in Iraq. The IAEA may be ruled out as a solution for that reason alone. The issue of security guarantees will be on the table. Administration hawks, however, have already gotten $75 million out of Congress to assist anti-regime forces inside and outside Iran. The U.S. has not renounced regime change in Iran; therefore it doesn't want to talk about security guarantees.

Elizabeth Spiro Clark is a retired Foreign Service officer who writes on issues of global democratization.

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