A Rising Tide in Mexico

In the southern state of Oaxaca, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or "AMLO," as he is affectionately known across Mexico, is approaching the podium to speak to 13,000 supporters. But first, he must be cleansed. A short medicine woman, wearing the traditional dress of the Mixtec Indians, swats him with green branches and perfumes him with copal incense. Lopez Obrador stands respectfully still with his eyes closed while assembled crowds howl with delight.

The Mexican presidential election is in full swing, and Lopez Obrador is one of three major candidates running for the office. Barring the possibility of massive electoral fraud, external meddling or assassination, AMLO will likely become the next president of Mexico.

But these are not unthinkable "what ifs." In 1988, by all accounts, massive fraud denied candidate Cuauhtemoc Cardenas the presidency. And in 1994, the popular leading candidate Luis Donaldo Colosio was gunned down in the streets of Tijuana in a murder that has never been solved.

Mexicans are all too aware of the seamy history of direct or covert U.S. involvement in shaping or overturning the outcome of elections throughout Latin America. President Bush, in advance of last week's Cancun summit meeting, met with Mexican journalists and pledged that the United States would not be involved in the Mexican election and would work with the choice of the Mexican people. But U.S. progressives should remain vigilant. It's been many decades since a leftist president was tolerated on our southern border.

Mexicans go to the polls on July 2 to elect their next president to a constitutionally mandated single six-year term, along with 628 members of Congress. Six years ago voters elected Vicente Fox, the first president in 71 years who was not from the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), Mexico's traditional ruling party. The 2000 election was largely free of irregularities, thanks in large part to Mexico's independent and well-resourced Federal Election Institute.

Fox, who ran as the candidate of the conservative National Action Party, or PAN, as it is called in Spanish, remains personally popular. While his legislative agenda has been thwarted in the PRI dominated legislature, Mexicans give him credit for serving honorably and not personally looting the treasury, as many of his predecessors have.

Fox has vocally supported Bush administration free trade policies such as the proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas -- earning the accusation of being a "lapdog of empire" from Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. At the same time, Fox has distanced himself from U.S. policies in Iraq and been openly critical of U.S. immigration policy and proposals to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border.

Running for president as the nominee on the PAN ticket is 44-year-old Felipe Calderon, who served in Fox's cabinet as energy secretary. Calderon's candidacy has sputtered, and he recently removed his top campaign staff and changed his campaign slogan for the third time.

The PRI candidate is Roberto Madrazo, a long-time fixture of national politics. Madrazo grew up in the governor's mansion in the oil-rich gulf state of Tabasco, where his father also served as governor and later as PRI party president, positions his son would later hold. Madrazo inherits the remarkable PRI political machinery, with its legendary get-out-the-vote and steal-the-vote capacity. While claiming that he represents a reformed and chastened PRI, his campaign has been hampered by lackluster campaigning and tainted by his reputation for bullying and arm-twisting.

Mexicans wonder out loud about how Madrazo could be so rich after two generations of public service. Internet savvy Mexicans have been circulating the Google Earth coordinates (19 14' 22.79" N, 99 10' 16.50" W) to view Madrazo's 14,000-square-foot home on a 3.6-acre estate overlooking Mexico City, one of five houses and multiple sports cars that Madrazo reported on his financial disclosure statements.