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A Rising Tide in Mexico

By Chuck Collins, AlterNet. Posted April 13, 2006.


The next president of Mexico could be a left populist who puts the needs of ordinary Mexicans ahead of international corporate investors -- if the U.S. refrains from meddling.
obrador-speech
Obrador speech
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In the southern state of Oaxaca, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, or "AMLO," as he is affectionately known across Mexico, is approaching the podium to speak to 13,000 supporters. But first, he must be cleansed. A short medicine woman, wearing the traditional dress of the Mixtec Indians, swats him with green branches and perfumes him with copal incense. Lopez Obrador stands respectfully still with his eyes closed while assembled crowds howl with delight.

The Mexican presidential election is in full swing, and Lopez Obrador is one of three major candidates running for the office. Barring the possibility of massive electoral fraud, external meddling or assassination, AMLO will likely become the next president of Mexico.

But these are not unthinkable "what ifs." In 1988, by all accounts, massive fraud denied candidate Cuauhtemoc Cardenas the presidency. And in 1994, the popular leading candidate Luis Donaldo Colosio was gunned down in the streets of Tijuana in a murder that has never been solved.

Mexicans are all too aware of the seamy history of direct or covert U.S. involvement in shaping or overturning the outcome of elections throughout Latin America. President Bush, in advance of last week's Cancun summit meeting, met with Mexican journalists and pledged that the United States would not be involved in the Mexican election and would work with the choice of the Mexican people. But U.S. progressives should remain vigilant. It's been many decades since a leftist president was tolerated on our southern border.

Mexicans go to the polls on July 2 to elect their next president to a constitutionally mandated single six-year term, along with 628 members of Congress. Six years ago voters elected Vicente Fox, the first president in 71 years who was not from the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), Mexico's traditional ruling party. The 2000 election was largely free of irregularities, thanks in large part to Mexico's independent and well-resourced Federal Election Institute.

Fox, who ran as the candidate of the conservative National Action Party, or PAN, as it is called in Spanish, remains personally popular. While his legislative agenda has been thwarted in the PRI dominated legislature, Mexicans give him credit for serving honorably and not personally looting the treasury, as many of his predecessors have.

Fox has vocally supported Bush administration free trade policies such as the proposed Free Trade Area of the Americas -- earning the accusation of being a "lapdog of empire" from Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. At the same time, Fox has distanced himself from U.S. policies in Iraq and been openly critical of U.S. immigration policy and proposals to build a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border.

Running for president as the nominee on the PAN ticket is 44-year-old Felipe Calderon, who served in Fox's cabinet as energy secretary. Calderon's candidacy has sputtered, and he recently removed his top campaign staff and changed his campaign slogan for the third time.

The PRI candidate is Roberto Madrazo, a long-time fixture of national politics. Madrazo grew up in the governor's mansion in the oil-rich gulf state of Tabasco, where his father also served as governor and later as PRI party president, positions his son would later hold. Madrazo inherits the remarkable PRI political machinery, with its legendary get-out-the-vote and steal-the-vote capacity. While claiming that he represents a reformed and chastened PRI, his campaign has been hampered by lackluster campaigning and tainted by his reputation for bullying and arm-twisting.

Mexicans wonder out loud about how Madrazo could be so rich after two generations of public service. Internet savvy Mexicans have been circulating the Google Earth coordinates (19 14' 22.79" N, 99 10' 16.50" W) to view Madrazo's 14,000-square-foot home on a 3.6-acre estate overlooking Mexico City, one of five houses and multiple sports cars that Madrazo reported on his financial disclosure statements.

Madrazo's wealth is a startling contrast to austere Lopez Obrador, a widower who lives in a modest apartment and who drove his own compact car to work when he served as mayor of Mexico City, the continent's largest metropolis. While Madrazo grew up in a life of privilege, AMLO is the son of a shopkeeper who worked in his youth as an advocate for indigenous groups in Tabasco. In the 1980s, he led efforts to successfully force the oil industry to pay reparations for damaging indigenous lands.


Digg!

Chuck Collins is the co-author of "Economic Apartheid in America: A Primer on Economic Inequality and Insecurity" (New Press). He currently lives in Oaxaca, Mexico, and is covering the Mexican election.

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After all, the stakes for U.S. corporate elites are high.
Posted by: Lincoln fan on Apr 13, 2006 6:43 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
That says it all. Our government will champion the corporate interests over the interests of the Mexican people. Why not? Our government already puts corporate interests above the interests of the American people.

Is the war in Iraq for our people? Do we have universal health care? Do we have good public schools? No! Do we have bankruptcy laws favorable to bankers? Do we export good jobs? Do we have poor and homeless people? Yes! You be the judge of whom our government represents.

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A Stable & Clean Mexican Government
Posted by: NoPCZone on Apr 13, 2006 8:18 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Would be the best thing that could happen south of our border. I truly believe that many of the illegal migrants to our country did not leave by choice-- but out of economic necessity. Corruption runs hard, long and deep in the Mexican political arena. Maybe this can be the beginning of the end of the PRI's total dominance. Good Luck, AMLO.

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The US will certainly attempt to intervene
Posted by: thoughtcriminal on Apr 13, 2006 9:32 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Let's say that the new movement in Mexico tries to do two critical things: restrict the rapid flow of international cash into and out of the country, and raise wages and standards of living for the urban and rural poor (the sweatshop laborers, in other words).

First, this would mean making foreign investment more like an IRA - you can't just suddenly haul your money out without significant penalties (I can hear the cursing already). This has the beneficial effect of making investors judge their investments carefully. Good for Mexico; bad for the multinational finance sector, and guess who Bush works for?

Second, if Mexican workers were to enjoy better wages and shorter working days, that means that the cheap factory labor system that NAFTA put in place would come to an end - again, raising production costs and cutting into the profits of all those many firms, big and small, that have relocated their production to the Mexico-US border region.

I would warn the new Mexican movement to be ready for massive intervention attempts on the part of the US government.

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Be careful
Posted by: mrexcellerator on Apr 13, 2006 9:48 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
One story told to me by a Mexican friend was that as mayor of DF Obrador "broke" the taxi medalion monopoly by publicly encouraging individuals to do their own gypsy cab thing. Solving problems of bad law by encouraging lawlwssness isn't my idea of visionary. The thoughtful Mexican view is they have a huge problem with lawlessness and corruption. If the guy at the top condones lawlessness then there is no way to get a handle on corruption.

You may not like Fox's economic policies but the guy has been good in two important areas - declassification and release of old government documents (especially around 1968) and introducing corporate style transparency policies to mid level government that have reduced overt corruption.

Hopefully if Obrador wins he'll also integrate the lesson that slower change within the existing system has a better chance of longevity than breaking the system.

One of the worst aspects of the Bush administration is their relentless breaking the spirit and occasionally the letter of the law. One of my friends who was in her 20s during prohibition once said to me that the worst aspect of prohibition was it broke the general respect for the law that was common before that.

Terrible laws foster revolutions. Bad laws (like a lot of ours) made by manuipilating a good or neutral system are better dealt with evolutionarily. I wish for the Mexicans an evolutionary path away from the governmental and social ills that have kept them so poor for so long.

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» "Corporate-style transparency"? Posted by: CounterCorp
» RE: Be careful Posted by: Lincoln fan
if the fauxleft is talking up AMLO, then he is probably a clintonesque CryptoRightwinger
Posted by: cry0fan on Apr 13, 2006 9:49 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
You hope for the best, but given the fact that the fauxleft here in America is talking him up is not good.

But then OTOH I have seen scare articles about AMLO in the corpwhorate media, which is a good sign that they are afraid of him.

But given the history of latin america, I hold out little hope for ANY large country outside of Europe to be able to resist the depredations of the overclass and its propaganda

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I live in Acapulco, PRD rules here, but
Posted by: tlbrink on Apr 13, 2006 4:19 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
AMLO is losing steam. The poll data cited was from last month. More recent polls show a great slide in AMLO's popularity. He is increasingly seen as phony.

1. He was an old PRI who converted to PRD because he thought it was a good career move.

2. His leadership of Mexico City was full of cronyism and lacking in transparency.

3. He seems to be promising anything for votes.

4. Many progressives (e.g., Krauze) have abandoned him.

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Agreed. Get your facts straight!
Posted by: JDMB on Apr 14, 2006 1:52 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
I am surprised tor ead that you live in Mexico, and disappointed in that light that you do not give the whole story. "...national legislators from the PRI and PAN tried to prevent him from running on a minor legal matter": as mayor of Mexico City he used eminent domain to expropriate some land to create an access to the most expensive private hospital in the country, and the affected landowners went to court seeking (and getting) an injunction to cease and desist; he ignored the ruling, it went all the way to the Supreme Court which reiterated the verdict for plaintiffs and still refused. PAN & PRI in the Mexican Congress (which has jurisdiction over the Federal District of Mexico City, much like DC in the US) sought to impeach AMLO, his party PRD took to the streets and PRI backed down (spineless, which is why they will not win this year) which brought the proceedings to an end. Under Mexican law, if found guilty, AMLO would have been barred from seeking public office for a period of time which would have effectively taken him out of the running in 2006. "Minor legal matter" mi burro!!!

And to underline what tlbrink says, the latest poll shows AMLO & Calderon in a statistical tie (32% to 34%).

Many thinking Mexicans fear an AMLO victory because of what it would mean for the country; but are equally afraid of what will happen if AMLO loses: he has shown blatant disregard for the rule of law when it inconveniences him, has surrounded himself with (and refused to disassociate from, indeed defends) corrupt cronies caught on videotape stuffing their pockets with money or gambling hundreds of thousands of dollars (literally) in Las Vegas, etc.: what can be expected from someone like that? Not much good, I don't think.

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Lopez Obrador is not a good leader!!!!!!
Posted by: Blaugaia on Apr 18, 2006 3:47 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
To all of you out there....especially the author....please do some more research on Lopez Obrador!!! As a Mexican who has lived in Mexico for most of my life and whose family is all there I can assure you that the corruption and dishonesty have grown thanks to Lopez Obrador. He is one of the most corrupt governors Mexico City has ever had and I personally know of his dirty dealings since close friends have been taken out of business just because they didn't want to go along with Lopez Obrador's request to overbill the government and undercharge him for a rendered service. He is only exploiting an image, a savior for the oppressed masses, but is nothing more than a lie. I would love that Mexico could elect a president who would not only be honest, but who could oppose the overwhelming dominion of the USA with straight politics (does something like that even exists?).... Believe me Lopez Obrador is the worst choice we Mexicans have at this coming elections, the WORST. If you can read in Spanish check all the articles that La Jornada has written about him.

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