Home
Archive
Columnists
Video
Blogs
Discuss
About
Search
Donate
Advertise
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertisement
Register to Vote: Rock the Vote, powered by Working Assets Wireless
Advertisement
  • AlterNetYour turn

Support AlterNet
Do you value the information you're getting from AlterNet? Please show your support with a tax-deductible donation.


Feedback
Tell us how we're doing.

Israel's New Reality

By Evan Derkacz, AlterNet. Posted January 6, 2006.


With Ariel Sharon in all likelihood out of the picture, Israel and Palestine are facing a new, unpredictable future.

Share and save this post:
Digg iconDelicious iconReddit iconFark iconYahoo! iconNewsvine! iconFacebook iconNewsTrust icon

More stories by Evan Derkacz

Get AlterNet in
your mailbox!

 
Advertisement

Even if Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon survives his stroke, he's unlikely to have the strength -- or perhaps even the mental faculties -- to once again lead Israel. Yossi Verter, a political analyst for Ha'aretz, wrote of the imminent power vaccum: "Nothing is certain anymore. Everything that seemed to be true until yesterday has taken a major hit." Another Ha'aretz analyst called it, succinctly, "the new reality."

For opponents of Sharon this may sound like good news, but hold the mazel tovs for a moment as a quick survey of the landscape reveals a politically -- and morally -- complex tableau.

It's true that under Sharon's leadership construction of the separation wall continues and, as Ghassan Khatib, the minister of planning for the Palestinian Authority, recently wrote:

"Israeli military violence against Palestinians has increased, with frequent Israeli raids in the West Bank and almost nightly shelling of targets in Gaza. Accelerated too is the pace of settlement expansion, while restrictions on the movement of Palestinians have become more stringent."

In other words, when we talk about the passing of Sharon we're not talking about an imminent and fair resolution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict engineered by a man of peace. What we were seeing, however, was the cold recognition by a fierce fighter and savvy tactician that Israel's best interests would be better served in the long run by tightening its borders and, perhaps, by removing some of the motivation behind citizen support for attacks on Israel and Israelis. And that was new and, to an extent, hopeful.

Make no mistake, Sharon is probably a war criminal and an utterly indefensible figure. This is merely to place Sharon's plans in the context of likely scenarios upon his passing. Tikkun's Rabbi Michael Lerner writes: "Ariel Sharon has done what no one on the left was able to do: split the right, marginalize the extremists who believe that holding on to the biblical vision of the land of Israel is a divine mandate, and acknowledge that a smaller Israel with defensible borders is preferable to a large Israel that requires domination of 3 million Palestinians."

He was able to do this precisely because he was known as a brutal leader willing to do nearly anything to ensure the safety of his people. When he began to dismantle some settlements (of which he was the architect and godfather), he faced heated opposition within his party. Sharon then abandoned the right-wing Likud party that he'd founded and launched the more-centrist Kadima (forward) party.

There are, of course, those who reject this whole line of reasoning as so much nonsense, the equivalent of yet another "turning point" in Iraq.

"[Sharon's departure] will mean very little," comments Ali Abunimah, founder of the website Electronic Intifada.

Sharon's departure changes none of the basic facts about the conflict, any more than Arafat's death did. Sharon had managed to convince a lot of people that the Gaza "disengagement" was the beginnning of something different. But you can only believe that if you ignore the fact that under Sharon, Israel has continued to accelerate the colonization of the West Bank. I have no doubt that Sharon's successor will continue that policy. In the absence of massive international pressure to force Israel to relinquish the occupied territories, there will be no Palestinian state and no peace. The cliche coverage will tell us that this is a "blow for peace," "turmoil" in Israel, a "setback" for diplomacy and other such nonsense.

Because Kadima is such a new party, and obviously lacking a procedure for choosing Sharon's successor, and because its strength lay in Sharon's reputation, in any case, there are doubts about whether Kadima can now pick up enough seats in the upcoming elections to have much of an impact. Until Sharon's ill health, Kadima was expected to win a plurality and to make cause with the Labor Party, led by the dovish Amir Peretz.

Violence in Israel/Palestine tends to favor the right side of the spectrum -- in the politics of both countries' people. As elections approach either side of the nonborder, the tactic for Sharon as much as Hamas has always been to ratchet up the violence, a sort of revving of the engines at the starting line. While violence has been worse in the past, it may well be enough to push the Israeli electorate rightward, giving ultrahawk Netanyahu a big boost.

Then again, internal Israeli politics could just as easily favor Amir Peretz's social change rhetoric or Ehud Olmert, the acting prime minister and likely Sharon replacement, as the face of Kadima. The sudden loss of a popular leader has a tendency to throw all predictions out the window. It's the "new reality," and what it'll look like is anybody's best guess.

Digg!

Evan Derkacz is AlterNet's associate editor and writer of Peek, the blog of blogs.

Liked this story? Get top stories in your inbox each week from AlterNet! Sign up now »


Advertisement

 

Comments Turn comments off sitewide Give us feedback »
Comments closed.
The comments for this story have been closed. Thank you to everyone who participated.
View:
a hope
Posted by: daoamo on Jan 6, 2006 2:44 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Perhaps a hope in vain, but it would be nice if the next Israeli Prime Minister made some kind of positive change.

[« Reply to this comment] [Post a new comment »] [Rate this comment: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5]

Aaah, the dance....... and so it will continue no matter who is in office.
Posted by: Pepper on Jan 6, 2006 4:36 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Its how I am beginning to see America as well. The "agenda" is in place, the planning is done and now its simply a matter of execution. Lets watch and see if anything changes from Sharon to who ever takes his place.

It should prove a test of sorts. If things continue, then the "plan" is the driving vehicle and the executor is irrelavent or will we see that the executor is the driving force and the plan is flexible and changeable.

I think that is the most important key to all of this. What drives this whole thing and who controls the plan. I think I will write to Barry Chamish and find out what is really going on in Isreal. Oh, dear, NSA maybe be monitoring since I am located here and Chamish is in Isreal which is overseas. LOL

Aaaah, Screw them! I hope they have fun listening. LOL P

[« Reply to this comment] [Post a new comment »] [Rate this comment: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5]

Robert Fisk on Ariel Sharon
Posted by: Colin on Jan 6, 2006 6:17 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
This link will take you to the journalist Robert Fisk's recent article about Ariel Sharon.

Fisk - undoubtedly one of Britain's finest journalists and a Middle Eastern specialist - has little trouble removing the word 'probably' from Derkacz's line about whether or not Sharon was a war criminal. Essential reading indeed.

To the Global Echo

[« Reply to this comment] [Post a new comment »] [Rate this comment: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5]

mark w
Posted by: mark on Jan 6, 2006 6:57 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
All negative quotes about Sharon came from anti-Israel Palestinians. They made good points, but the author would have done well to find quotes from a more objective standpoint.

[« Reply to this comment] [Post a new comment »] [Rate this comment: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5]

» Goofed a tad. Posted by: ABetterFuture
» RE: mark w Posted by: mythbuster
» RE: mark w Posted by: mark
Yeah, the Pig is gone, now attack!
Posted by: truthteller on Jan 6, 2006 9:43 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
There is no love lost between me and the Zionists who have stolen Palestine from the Palestinians. I don't have a dog in the theological argument (I'm an Atheist of White, Protestant background), so I look at this as a property rights case, and all the arguments support the Palestinians as the most wronged people since Native Americans. It is, of course, up to the Palestinians and their allies as to what they want to do, but I would have no problem if they take the opportunity of a power vacuum in Israel to launch a decisive attack to finally drive ALL the Zionist invaders into the sea and take back their rightful homeland. It certainly would be more humane in the long-run than the continuation of suicide bomb attacks.

I believe as an American, that we have been both taken in by Zionist advocates, and our own prejudice against non-Judeo-Christian peoples. I think average working Americans really don't care about there being an Isreal. In fact, I think many, especially average working-class African-Americans, are more sympathetic to the Palestinians as an oppressed people. I call on the U. S. Government to stay OUT of this fight and let nature take it's course in the Middle East. It would solve many of our problems internationally if we quit propping up this illegal State. As to the arguments that they are the only "democracy" in the region: It's not a democracy if a significant percentage of the population is cut out of participation.

I say good riddance to the Pig Sharon and death to the State of Isreal.

[« Reply to this comment] [Post a new comment »] [Rate this comment: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5]

Sharon is a war criminal: it is good he's gone.
Posted by: Zamboni Driver on Jan 6, 2006 3:50 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Reading the above posts, especially Mattc's, I have to disagree with the Zionist apologists. Sharon was AWFUL. I know it's hard for Jewish folks to accept how bad Israel is, but it is the truth. Israel is building giant concrete walls around Palestinian civilian settlements fer christ sakes! Israel openly assassinates Palestinian leaders and civil rights activists! Israel collectively punishes entire Palestinian cities buy flying military jets very, very low over them--with a sonic boom so deafeningly loud windows everywhere shatter in civilian homes (and they do this in the middle of the night!). In all fairness Israel is a military police state with a terrible human rights record: and Sharon can take much of the credit for it. Rabin was a great leader for Israel--and sadly some Zionist extremist murdered him! Also, I'm not saying Saudi Arabia or any of the other middle eastern countries are any better: they are all very dangerous countries, all police states, and I would never want to live anywhere in the Middle East. Sadly it's all just one big, ugly mess of pain, suffering and injustice with no solution in sight. I wish everybody could just get along there and chill out, but it seems an impossibility. It is also terrible that Zionists have infiltrated our upper levels of U.S. government to the point that Israel is the LARGEST recipient of U.S. foreign aid. That money should be used instead to help U.S. citizens: assistance and housing for the homeless; pay teachers more, and create an authentic safetynet. Anyways Sharon was an evil person and I for one am glad to see him out of the picture. That guy has killed thousands of innocent people. What is worrying is who will replace him? Somebody even worse is a distinct possibility. But in any event it is good news to see Sharon gone: they must try to select a new leader who actually wants peace and cooperation in the region. AND TEAR DOWN THOSE UGLY CONCRETE WALLS! Israel's Zionists are acting like E. German communists! (both police states, btw).

[« Reply to this comment] [Post a new comment »] [Rate this comment: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5]

Uncertain Future
Posted by: Rod in 83706 on Jan 6, 2006 7:23 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Yes, both Israel and the Palestinians face an uncertain future (and have for over 50 years because of their collective stupidity), but it is none of our business. We need to be neutral and bring our troops home from Iraq, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia.

[« Reply to this comment] [Post a new comment »] [Rate this comment: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5]

» RE: Uncertain Future Posted by: Doubtom
Qu.: What Is Bibi Netanyahu's Favorite Vegetable?
Posted by: Bobb9999 on Jan 6, 2006 10:18 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Ans.: Ariel Sharon.


(No, this is not just a tasteless joke...)

[« Reply to this comment] [Post a new comment »] [Rate this comment: 1 - 2 - 3 - 4 - 5]