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Can You Spell Withdrawal without O-I-L?

By James Howard Kunstler, Kunstler.com. Posted November 24, 2005.


It would be nice if we could have a coherent public discussion about staying or going in Iraq, and you can't do that without talking about the oil of the Middle East.

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Neither Jack Murtha, the congressman who set the cable news networks afire this weekend, or Frank Rich, the lead dog on the New York Times Sunday op-ed page, mentioned the word "oil" once. I only mention it myself because it would be nice if we could have a coherent public discussion about staying or going in Iraq, and you can't do that without talking about the oil of the Middle East.

But it does illustrate how deep the national denial runs and how foggy the debate gets. Even poor George W. Bush seems to think we're in Iraq in order to turn the people into Jeffersonian democrats, so the only issue for his opponents is whether that is possible or not.

Maybe we ought to ask: what happens to the oil supply of the Crusader West when none of its representatives maintains a garrison in the Middle East? I use the term Crusader not to be cute, but to remind you how Europe and America are viewed by many people of the Middle East. They don't like us. They have a longstanding beef with us. Some of them would like to punish us.

America is leading the current crusade because we are the society most desperately addicted to oil, and the Middle East is where two-thirds of the world's remaining oil lies. The one thing that we apparently cannot bring ourselves to talk about is our addiction itself. The commuters whizzing around the edge cities and metroplexes of this land probably got a big charge out of Congressman Murtha's anti-war blast taking over drive-time radio last Friday. I wonder if they thought about how it might affect their commuting.

This whole spectacle -- both the inept war itself and our debate about it here at home -- is particularly shameful for the official opposition, my party, the Democrats, because we could be talking about the so-called elephant-in-the-room, namely how we live in America and the tragic choices we've made, and the things we might do to change that -- but the party leadership is too brain-dead or craven to do that. As long as we don't, we're going to be wrassling a tarbaby in the Middle East.

Unless an anti-war opposition has a plan to withdraw from the project of suburban sprawl, we're going to have to keep soldiers in Iraq, if not in the cities, then out in desert bases guarding the oil works and keeping planes ready to fly in case some al-Zarqawi-type maniac mounts a coup in Saudi Arabia. It would certainly be legitimate for the Democratic party to oppose the idea that we can continue to be crippled by car-dependency, or that we ought to keep subsidizing that way of life -- which Vice-president Cheney called "non-negotiable." We'd better negotiate that or somebody else is going to negotiate it for us, and that is exactly what they are doing with IED's in Iraq and elsewhere.

But without that part of the argument, the debate in congress and on the airwaves is just stupid, because we've left ourselves no real choice.

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You are right!
Posted by: ShaSpirit on Nov 24, 2005 1:10 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
I kept wondering why oil was not mentioned anywhere about the run up to the war, during the war and now. Our news organizations cannot seem to be able to mention that is why were are really in Iraq. Maybe we need some antitrust law suits brought against news organizations. Is there a reporter out there who is brave enough to keep mentioning the oil is the reason we are at war?

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» RE: You are right! Posted by: douglashoyt
Operation Iraqi Liberation (OIL)
Posted by: TKO on Nov 24, 2005 5:09 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
The first name they were going to use for the Iraq War was Operation Iraqi Liberation, with the appropriate acronym OIL. It was changed to Operation Iraqi Freedom because the OIL acronym might cause controversy. Maybe a truth in advertising law should apply here. Probably changed by the weasel that choreographed the protests outside the Florida recounts in 2000 and later set up and has been running the CennCom briefing center in Iraq where the daily briefing (propaganda) session is held.

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Thank you Mr. Kunstler
Posted by: hotar on Nov 24, 2005 5:28 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Once again, Kunstler hits the nail on the head. I've harped on this before, so I'll merely mention that the thin veneer of "bringing democracy to the Middle East" covers the Carter Doctrine. It is the hidden-in-plain-sight rationale for everything we do in the Middle East. If you don't know about the Carter Doctrine, check it out on the Wikipedia ( linked text ). Once you know about it, you can see why, without the changes to our society that Kunstler mentions, we will NEVER leave Iraq.

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» RE: Thank you Mr. Kunstler Posted by: Greenslader
Please explain yourself.
Posted by: douglashoyt on Nov 24, 2005 5:46 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
You are hard to follow writing style wise.

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» I'll Take a Shot Posted by: decembrist
» RE: I'll Take a Shot Posted by: mwildfire
» RE: I'll Take a Shot Posted by: decembrist
Peak Oil
Posted by: rdsanchez1966 on Nov 24, 2005 6:10 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
You article was on target and relevant to the topic of the Iraq War and war and peace issues in the Middle East.

To get a better prespective of just were we stand please go to www.oilcrisis.com for articles and discussion of global Peak Oil. It is closer than we think.

Keep up the good work on informing us of the news behind the news that Fox/CNN/MSNBC et al won't show.

Robert

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Oil is Peaking
Posted by: jbetterl on Nov 24, 2005 6:27 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
This was a fine article, but it does not go far enough. The real elephant in the room is the fact that oil is running out, and if we fight war after war for oil that is running out we are doubly foolish. The search for new, sustainable and non-polluting sources of energy should be consuming our money, our interest, and our young people.

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» RE: Oil is Peaking Posted by: Kathleen
» RE: Oil is Peaking Posted by: Pooty T
» RE: Oil is Peaking Posted by: birdman
» RE: Oil is Peaking Posted by: Pooty T
What if ...
Posted by: AdamSelene11726 on Nov 24, 2005 7:16 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Because 100 years ago the British goal in Iraq was to obtain easily refined crude oil to fuel a modern navy ... we neccessarily assume that the American goal now is to OBTAIN oil.

It is equally possible that the Iraq adventure was designed to take the Iraqi fields out of production for a while.

Why? Long term profitability.

The Iraq adventure has has denied cheap fuel to America's economic rivals, notably in the European Union. It has delayed the moment of 'peak oil' by at least a few years. And by raising the price of ALL oil it is encouraging conservation in a way that no political process could approach.

The Cheney Gang isn't in the business of BURNING oil, it's in the business of selling oil. Selling less at a higher price is just as good as selling more at a lower price and putting off the moment at which there is no longer enough product to sustain the market for burnable oil holds off the moment at which oil companies really do have to become 'energy' companies.

The Common Wisdom of the moment seems to be that gasoline has to be reach $5.00/gal before the American buyer will choose vehicles based on fuel economy.

Then there is the matter of home heating -- and the demand for petroleum in China and India's growing economies.

If it's a question of war with small bands of lightly armed insurgents or competing for resources with nuclear powers having large, modern Air, Armor and Infantry forces ... it might be better to have the oil to sell later than have cheaper oil to burn now.

Or, at least, that might be the thinking behind the New American Century.

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» RE: What if ... Posted by: bonapartist
» RE: What if ... Posted by: Pooty T
Dissonance in Article
Posted by: wobblies on Nov 24, 2005 7:51 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Hi~
I had trouble understanding what the point was of the article. The author seemed to be saying that he supported getting out of Iraq but also seemed to suggest that we can't do that so long as we need the oil. I would appreciate some clarification.

By the way, the control of petroleum is not the only resource in the region that interests us. We also want to control the water.

God Speed,
David

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China's need for oil
Posted by: Kathleen on Nov 24, 2005 8:18 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
I agree that one of the most important reasons the US is fighting in Iraq is because of protecting oil interests. But we're not just protecting our own future needs for oil. We're also in Iraq so we can monitor, influence, and control the oil supply agreements China is making with Iran and other oil suppliers in the Persiasn Gulf area. The US knows it may face serious trouble if China controls the oil coming out of the Persian Gulf. Besides worrying about oil supplies, we are worying about the potential of another huge world war with oil-hungry China. The best solution for both Americans and Chinese is to actively encourage (with tax cuts, rewards, and positive legislation) the creative development of alternative energy sources. The whole world is addicted to what energy can create for us. The world's scientists and entrepreneurs are desperately needed to spearhead the search for realistic, affordable, abundant alternative energy sources. That may be our best chance to settle wars and bring peace to the world. -- We'll always need/use oil until it runs out. The oil-supplying countries don't need to worry until their oil is all gone. Then they'll be in the same boat as the rest of us. Thank you Mr. Kuntsler for an excellent, thought-provoking article.

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» RE: China's need for oil Posted by: decembrist
Stay or Go isn't the question.
Posted by: jeffrey7 on Nov 24, 2005 8:42 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Leaving Iraq is something we have to do. When your govt builds up a Dictator then calls him enemy then construes the facts to create an invasion need and lies to the Country and the World, 'Honor' is something that went out the window in 2003. This govt invaded a nuetured dog. Saddam was less of a threat than Abby Hoffman,and he's dead.
The question before us,the People of this Country,is are we going to take the Leadership of this Country to World Court,
or are we going to roll along till the next election farce and hope for the best.
I say if America is to regain it's Dignity as a Nation,then we have to take the Whole Leadership to trial. All of them the Executive branch as well as the Legislature. They all walked lockstep together. They all bear the responsibility for those whom will never come home except in a box. Right now they're all trying to save-face for the up comming elections.
We have to ask ourselves," Are we as a Nation so damned greedy that we are willing to killoff all whom stand in our way of aquiring everything?"
"Are we as a People so damned sheepish that we will let a corrupted govt lead us to hell without question until election time?"
We have to ask ourselves," Are we willing to admit the govt has acted wrongly and without 'just cause' and remove them ourselves,which IS our right, or let some other force depose the govt and we be forced to live under some other Tyrant's thumb?"
Has'nt the elected ones brought enough shame to this Country and our Citizens already?
If you still have doubts, chew on this. Rght now there is a aide worker in the Gulf Region,trying to bring good food and water and clothes to those who have nothing. Because they are 'civilian' aide workers they get hassled by the local heat and being beat by these same folks, all the while we hear that the recovery will take longer and cost more. When your beating the folks that are doing the Govt's job it makes your govt look even more criminal. If this is what we do to our own People, how can we be anything bit an Aggressor Nation.

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Got oil?
Posted by: ohleslie on Nov 24, 2005 10:23 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
I just found this writer yesterday, through some link from some link, and read everything he wrote (well, began to - he writes a lot!) and suggest that those confused by the above should go to http://kunstler.com/mags_diary15.html to see the thought in entirety, and, of course, to his books on the subject. It is shamefully stupid of Americans to avoid this topic, and really shameful of our leaders to both avoid it, and have more than simple denial issues causing them to avoid it. They are taking money not to talk. If they say anything that blows the cover of their sponsers, they lose their financial backing, don't they. So the bloody gold rush in Iraq will comtinue. with big oil fighting for and to the last drop, and all the corporate scavengers in there to get theirs, imprisoning Iraquis, "securing" the city, taking over the economy, rebuilding what they've destroyed, etc. In the Bush scheme of things, the rest of the world and the Americans who don't get into this game are just chumps. And we can either fiddle while they play or stop paying for it and buying it. I think a strike on oil would be effective. of course none of us has the wherewithal to do that, but if we started organizing it now....

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Our troops in Iraq have reduced the availability of oil to us.
Posted by: Sojourner on Nov 24, 2005 12:30 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
The guerrilla destruction of wells and lines will not end until we make peace with their forces. Not all the troops in the world can stop them.

They will not make peace with us until we negotiate.

We don't know how to negotiate.

Ergo, the Iraq war will go on forever, and Bush and friends will continue to reap huge profits from their oil investments.

Do not expect the baby to give up his candy.

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Oil and Bases.
Posted by: spirit on Nov 24, 2005 2:08 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
There's a story just out about major oil cos. getting ready to take over Iraq's oil. If this is true then the Iraqis will have been betrayed by their own obscenely corrupt gov't. Bush has no intention of leaving, he is building four vast, permanent air bases, away from the cities, to be protected by ground troops. He knows exactly what he is doing and he doesn't care at all about the Iraqi people, or our troops who have fought and died there. Only a concerted effort by the majority of the American people can stop this madness and I don't think that they are awake enough to care.

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Kunstler: How will Iraq's Oil Ease the US Off of its Dependency?
Posted by: decembrist on Nov 24, 2005 10:12 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Kunstler suprises me because of his seemingly contradictory stands on the Iraq war and oil issues.

What suprises me is that I don't see how securing access to Iraq's oil will help America ease itself off of its addiction to oil. Kunstler suggests that having access to Iraq's oil will ease our fall, so to speak. As far as I can tell, securing Iraq's oil and our access to it only prolongs our dependence on oil, since I see almost zero planning for what may be the coming scarcity of oil.

I've read Kunstler's book, "The Long Emergency" and he shows this same confusing stance in parts of the book.

Invading Iraq only heightened the cultural war between Muslims and the west... this can only make more flammable the wars that may be fought in the future for oil, the displacement that global warming will bring and the chaos that will ensue from the conflagration of all these issues at once. Kunstler's book is about global warming, oil scarcity and political and cultural chaos, all converging around the same time. So why does he support a war that has only succeeded in setting the stage for an even higher level of violence in the future? Especially in the future which he himself has predicted.

Kunstler has never explained why he believes the we had no choice but to invade Iraq. He says that it would be "legitimate" for Democrats to oppose car-dependency, but that the anti-war opposition needs to have a plan "to withdraw from the project of suburban sprawl" before it can be taken seriously. What the hell?? Is not opposing car-dependency a plan to ease ourselves off of oil?

Being anti-Iraq War is itself part of a plan to oppose the U.S. dependency on oil.

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We leave Iraq when the oil is depleted, next stop Iran
Posted by: Jeffersonista on Nov 25, 2005 7:01 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Hey stealing other peoples oil is profitable and keeps those gas guzzlers going! Let take all of the oil and then leave, and Iran is the next stop.

This will continue ad nauseum untill China reaches for the same pool of oil, then basically we are so owned.

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The High Price of Success
Posted by: worksg on Nov 25, 2005 9:15 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Suppose for a moment that the Neocon's "last man standing" strategy succeeded. That is, suppose that the US actually got control of most of the oil in the Middle East, and so was able to continue to grow our GDP and our population for another decade or so. What would happen?

The answer to this is addressed in "Limits to Growth: The 30 Year Update". Oil is a finite resource, so eventually its production and use must decline. The longer we postpone the decline, the more dependent we become and the further and faster we will fall when the decline occurs.

Our national strategy will thus leave us worse off if it succeeds than if it fails. The only sane strategy is to agree to a protocol that calls for intentionally declining oil exports at a controlled rate of decline, with the US and every other nation planning its affairs to live on a declining level of imported oil.

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DrMark
Posted by: Drmark on Nov 25, 2005 9:58 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
As an engineer I would like to point out something some writers have mised about oil...its still cheap in dollar terms (15 cents a cup?) but expensive in lives and long term impacts...one is economic the other political. As usual in the energy history of the west, the price ($s and lives) will go from cheap to whoa!? in a short time (a few years) and THEN, AND ONLY THEN will economically and politically new alternatives be explored and brought to the US market. If you look abroad where this realization has already occurred they already have technology (hi mileage cars, cogeneration for the home etc). Right now it is way to expensive to reduce a building's energy costs unless you use a 50 year return window or send oil prices into the triple digits per barrel. Or perhaps an administration that believes that self sufficiency is a national defense priority?

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Return from the edge
Posted by: POINCIANA13 on Nov 25, 2005 10:02 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
How are we to leave suburbia? Where are we to go? Where will the funding come from to rebuild the cities so we can live and work in them? If we started today it would take at least two generations to dismantle this suburban mess, wouldn't it? And where would we go? The cities of today cannot accommodate all of us who live on the edge or beyond. And if Mr. Kunsler is right, we may be past the point of having the resources to do this rebuilding....

Y'all should read Mr. Kunsler's "The Long Emergency". He writes the truth.

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» RE: Return from the edge Posted by: worksg
I agree, but...
Posted by: Erik1968 on Nov 25, 2005 3:51 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
You know, it's funny, because I was discussing the Bush meltdown with my brother, and I believe that the only way the administration can win the American people back over is to use exactly this line of reasoning. What if Bush went on TV tomorrow and told America that if we don't have "total victory" in Iraq, we'll run out of oil? Don't you think those red-staters would get right back on board? I do. I'm actually starting to worry about this.

Having said that, this whole idea that the anti-war movement has to have some plan to rid America of oil dependence is sheer nonsense. We can be against the war on moral grounds, period. I hear what you're saying, but frankly I'll cross that bridge when I come to it. It's not the anti-war movement's responsibility to save the world. We're kinda busy right now trying to stop the war.

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» I agree with you Posted by: decembrist
» RE: I agree, but... Posted by: A. James
Number of Comments on Alternet = Concern the Article Provokes
Posted by: decembrist on Nov 26, 2005 12:45 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
It's interesting that an article suggesting we fast instead of feast on Thanksgiving, in rememberence of the genocide our ancestors and "forefathers" conducted against Native Americans generated 300+ comments. Articles dealing with race on Alternet always generate many more comments than any other article.
I believe this has to do with fear - fear of the recognition of white privilege.... white privilege that continues today and that is a legacy of the genocide that europeans inspired and carried out against native americans. The threat of the dissolution of white privilege means letting the hordes of brown people take over, it seems, in the minds of many whites.

On the other hand, an article dealing with the present day violence against a foreign people, in their own homeland, and which concerns the one resource that means the prosperity of their country and themselves, generates very few comments. Maybe this has to do with the feasting of Thanksgiving, but I don't think so.

The citizens of the US don't fear the anger their government is causing in the hearts of Muslims who previously were not our enemies. The citizens of the US, involved in their own world while their government is bloodily involved in the world of ordinary Iraqis, are more concerned with any threat to the veil of forgetfulness that covers the destruction of the indigenous people of the U.S. They also are not concerned with the international conflicts that loom over the control and access to oil.

I heard accusations of "navel-gazing" aimed at those who thought a fast would be a good idea in rememberance of the Native American genocide. Real navel gazing, however, is refusing to look overseas and recognize the futility of the violence our government has sanctioned against the Iraqis.

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War On Terror (Iraq Front)
Posted by: George_0527 on Nov 27, 2005 1:21 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Who do you want to control Iraq’s oil revenues: A peaceful democratic Iraqi society or al-Qaeda? This is the question you should ask yourself concerning our forces in Iraq. To debate anything other than how to best achieve our objectives in the war on terror is irresponsible, dangerous, and unpatriotic.

The enemy is not the political party in power that was democratically elected - it is the terrorists worldwide committed to our destruction. Al-Qaeda has a clearly stated goal of waging nuclear war against the West. Dropping our military support for such a fragile democracy in Iraq is the equivalent of handing al-Qaeda the resources necessary to succeed in destroying us.

The Democrats can not be the party that helped support terrorism with a shortsighted and selfish agenda of regaining political power. The presidential election in 2008 is when partisan politics is more appropriate. We need to be united in our commitment to defeat terrorism. How best to achieve this objective is the only focus of debate that is currently valid. Failure is not an option.

Our troops should come home when our objective is completed - stable democratic Iraqi government that can defend itself from al-Qaeda or any other terrorist group. Instead of pushing for a timetable for American troop removal from Iraq, we should be pushing for a timetable to transfer all security duties to Iraqi forces. Our troops should be invisible in the everyday lives of Iraqi citizens. The only time our troops should be visible is to the terrorists when they are being apprehended. Our casualties are always lowest when we do what we do best militarily - surprise enemies with overwhelming precision force. I rather have twenty 1,000-troop American anti-terrorist cells (assisting Iraqi special forces) operating throughout Iraq to hunt down terrorists than have our brave soldiers patrolling Iraq’s streets as sniper targets.

It is estimated that the Nazi death machine killed over 25 million innocent people and the Soviet Union killed over 95 million innocent people - the appeasement of evil just doesn‘t work. How many innocents are you willing to see slaughtered until you believe it is time to take the global threat of terrorism seriously? Nuclear weapons in the hands of suicidal murderers is not acceptable under any circumstances.

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» RE: War On Terror (Iraq Front) Posted by: Earthbound Misfit
trace
Posted by: trace on Dec 1, 2005 11:02 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
we need a government that utilized the wisdom that sometimes flows thru usns and then a computer that would choose the best for all concerned and then try it . Small comunities maybe a town ship have a meeting place to meet and see what comes thru and then send it off to the computer and go from there just an idea huh aloha

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