We have for decades known there was a limit to fossil fuel. Yet the government has blocked at ever turn the development of renewable energy sources. Big oil is big business. It's too late to save the fossil fuel but not too late to avoid an energy shortage if alternative methods are encouraged.

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There are several things that come to mind. Firstly, there is enough known oil to cause environmental catastrophe if used as fuel. One response to a problem is denial. pretend that it doesn't exist. This is of course familiar in the substance abuse problem - "I don't have a drinking problem" - and is the only thing that the Bush administration has come up with. Only in an intellectually backward country could such scientific rubbish have any credibility.


Even if global warming didn't exist one can contrast the behaviour of China and the U.S. China is taking a longer term view, making deals and investing in oil production areas around the world, with a view to ensuring supplies for the future. In contast the U.S. has invaded Iraq using an obviously false pretext, is threatening Iran, and tried unsucessfully to foster a coup in Venezuela

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Canada is the biggest external supplier of energy to the U.S. Tar sand oil reserves are 2nd only to Saudia Arabia. Energy conservation is a good thing and I'm glad that Canada has signed on the Kyoto Accord. It will create a lot of economic activity here. The Bush administration includes Canada's oil in it's domestic supply. This will be true only as long as NAFTA is in force, which incredibly, requires us to share our oil with the U.S., even if Canadians faced a shortage. This idea would never fly here, if it actually happened. Despite, some people in Northern states who want to separate from "JesusLand", our two countries seem to becoming more divergent in many respects. The U.S. "free traders" who only believe in that idea, when it suits them, could be in for a rude awakening someday. The thing that sort of scares me is the military aspect. Would the U.S. invade Canada to gain oil supply. Unfortunately, the answer can be summed up in only one word... Iraq.

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It doesn't matter that there may be lots more oil out there. At our present rate of increased use it will be gone in a blink. We have fallen off the Empire State Building and on the way down are arguing whether we have just passed the 40th or the 20th floor. And the argument does not take into account limits placed by global warming and the exponential costs associated with getting the last drop.

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Could you please do one of your excellent articles about alternate energy. I have known for 30 years that oil is going to run out. We were building our own house when the Exxon Valdez ran aground and laid waste to Prince William Sound (had kayaked there just two years before). It was what clinched our decision to use solar power and we have lived happily with it for 14 years.

It would really help me if your articles focused as much time on what is being done to create hope (even if only a glimmer) as they do on dour circumstances that are so so clear to most of us already.

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This is no surprise!!!! Wake up !! Educate yourself about solar, wind , hydro power sources. Learn about herbs and herbal remedies, learn about edible native plants. When there is no more oil these will be the "valuable" resources.

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Renewable energy plus efficiency can (and will, I think) be the answer to peak oil. But first the US has to elect a president who can spell words like "renewable" and "efficiency," though. Bush prefers shorter words, like "war" and "oil" and "money."
For my part, I just got a Jetta Diesel that gets about 45mpg and runs on biodiesel. And I am planning to make my own biodiesel.
Biodiesel is made from methanol and vegetable oil, so it is completely renewable and supports US agriculture. And any modern diesel engine will happily sip its veggies!

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Kudos to those running their vehicles on biodiesel. But your methanol is probably made from natural gas, so it's not entirely renewable. In any case there is simply not enough land to produce enough bio-based fuel to meet projected demand. (See Growing Energy. Bio-based ethanol may eventually substitute nearly 100% for gasoline -- but only if we cut demand by about 2/3!)

As the article above points out, slowing demand growth is the most critical factor. Personal life-style changes are honorable, but insufficient, especially with the Bushies denial-based energy policies. (They just cut rewewable energy R&D by $48 million and increased the war budget by 48 billion.)

What's the solution? I don't know. I've been in a funk since November 3. I fear that it will take a climate catastrophe to get this country (and much of the rest of the world) to take these matters seriously. But even then, chan

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This has been coming for several years yet each administration over the years has chosen business as usual rather than confronting the issue with a long term solution. Instead of putting our financial resources in a very dubious war in Iraq why couldn't we put all our resources into solving this extremely important problem. Instead of making oil companies rich and countries is in the Middle East even richer let's stop the madness. If we don't we are libel to became like a third world country.

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It is shocking to realize that "one average American consumes as much oil as 35 citizens of India."
If members of Congress know about Hubbert's research why have they not taken immediate emergency measures to stop the trend in the automotive industry toward gas guzzling SUV's and the even worse Humvee?

One reason for squelching the facts is that discussion would develop about the end game oil strategies. Americans might then realize the danger of having oil executives in charge of foreign and military policies.
linked text=Condoleezza Rice>

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There is something we can do, while the supply of oil is exhausted, and that is to reduce the amount of oil we use in our personal lives...

a) Take mass transit, if available in your area....particularly for long commutes.
b)Use Hybrid cars (many models are available now, including SUV´s).....an added bonus is that they are fun to drive
c) Bicycle riding is a lot of fun...great exercise.

Here in Atlanta, the city that has the 5th worst traffic congestion in the US, there is ample opportunity to do all of these three activities...and yet we still see too few people helping out.....We can complain and leave it at that or we can do something small, it may seem, but as explained in the book "the tipping point"....seemingly insiginificant events can help create a massive wave....towards less dependence on oil

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I will not argue that we need to change our lifestyles and make them more earth friendly.
But it will mean nothing without election reform and media reform. Far too many people are clueless and careless. Bush and several automakers are suing California to repeal their new law mandating cleaner vehicles.
Frankly, even if Kerry did win over the neocon cheating and lies he still wouldn't have done what we need to have done.
I have to echo what's been said already here, it's up to the people.

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as stupid as this might sound - i am personally encouraging everyone i know to use as much oil as they possible can. only when it is all GONE, with the arguing end and solutions found. one advantage you and i have is that we ALREADY know there's an end to oil supplies and we can make appropiate plans and avoid the pitfalls.
this whole senario reminds me of december 31, 1999 when there were thousands of idiots in line at walmart wanting to buy bottled water before the y2k disaster came upon us. true, y2k disaster never happened, but people didn't pay any attention to it until the very last minute. let's you and i be more attentive.

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The simple fact is, we're losing the battle to live sustainably on earth. You and I are as responsible for this problem as anyone because there is something more important than oil.

That is, the complexity of our problems requires emergent innovation. That requires a critical mass of interaction, feedback, and pattern recognition. Without combining the left and right, these conditions remain unmet.

There are two options for how change will come. The most probable is that a terrible event will leave us unable to remember who supported big business and who didn't. The other, much less likely, is that we on the left could overcome our fear and anger, justified as it is, and birth a movement to bring both sides together to respectfully listen to each other.

Since I see the left as equally self righteous as the right, the crisis scenario seems more likely. Therefore, I long for the collapse of oil. The longer it takes to arrive, the mo

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Thank you for reminding readers that hybrid cars and even biofuels are not enough. Thank you also for reminding readers that more than transportation is at stake. Petroleum products are insidious; we are even more addicted to plastics than we are to automobiles. What is needed in the "civilized" world is a major change in priorities and lifestyle, or we will become even worse off than a "third-world" country. We will have to coin a new term - fourth-world country - to describe post-technological countries that crashed for their capitalistic and planet-hostile policies.

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This is a good juicy article with a little humor and wit, it highlights human folly on the eve of disaster. This is just the kind of writing that Alternet should publish. The way to get people to tune into the site is to write stories that are fun to read and memmorable. As lefties, we must understand this: Americans like to be entertained, not lectured to.

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Why? Because people who advocate (at least publically) a fundamentalist Christian viewpoint are in charge, and that set of mythology says the world MUST come to an end in order for Jesus to set up camp and make things right...so who cares if oil is drying up and the world will come to a screeching halt energy wise?--What's that compared to "ARM A GEDD UN"--many of my students already have their heads in the sand (showed them a video on over population and pollution, and the average response is "What's the big deal?"). Cheny and Bush are so intoxicated by oil, I don't think they are capable of rational thought on this policy....

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What is more important to our government and the majority of Americans - after all, peak oil only really matters to our nation and not others - running out of oil, or the return of the Saviour? So, it depends - which one happens first - if Christ returns before oil runs out - who cares - all will be bliss; and if oil runs out before Christ returns, then surely the running out of oil will be that additional point necessary to push the rapture index to full, and then Christ will surely return.

See, religion, oil and politics are all connected and that is why nothing will be done by our government, big business or the majority of Americans who "know" that prosperity, cheap oil (ANWR not withstanding) and heaven are just around the corner.

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We don’t need the damned oil! A Stanford University study on the available energy that could be harvested from wind blowing over the United States found that, based on a turbine hub height of 262 feet, about ¼ of the land was suitable for wind harvesting. Further, it competes favorably with other sources in terms of costs.

“The direct cost per kilowatt-hour of power generated by winds of at least 14 miles per hour is 2.9 to 3.9 cents, according to a 2001 article in Science by Jacobson and Gilbert Masters, an emeritus professor (teaching) of civil and environmental engineering. That cost competes with that of power produced at new plants utilizing coal (3.5 to 4 cents) or natural gas (3.3 to 3.6 cents). Mighty winds might breathe clean, renewable power into the grid, which in 1999 relied on coal (51 percent) and natural gas (15 percent) to generate 66 percent of U.S. electric power.”

The rest of my rather informative comment had to be edited out f

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The otherwise excellent introduction to the subject by Stan Cox fails to evaluate the reliability of his citation of peak dates which range from 2005 to 2037. Given that virtually all the estimates that fall in later decades come from sources closer to the oil industry, and that such sources have consistently misled the public, one should seriously question their reliability. The only estimate from the oil industry that puts the peak in this decade (they knew it decades ago) was kept from public distribution until recently.

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I agree with every point of view provided (except maybe to burn oil faster to hasten the crisis).
I can only assume that everyone who posted these thoughtful comments has done two things recently:a) written a column to their local paper highlighting this crisis and alternatives to the fossil-fuel addicted lifestyle.
b) voted/campaigned for a statesman who believes that the oil industry's days of influence in our culture are numbered.
This is a democracy and the First Amendment is _still_ our weapon of choice.
Otherwise, guys, we are preaching to the choir and spinning our wheels...
Keep it up.

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The Hydrogen Economy: The Creation of the Worldwide Energy Web and the Redistribution of Power on Earth------
by Jeremy Rifkin

--------------------------------- -----and------------------------------

Crossing the Rubicon: The Decline of the American Empire at the End of the Age of Oil --
by Catherine Austin Fitts (Foreword), Michael C. Ruppert ---------------------------------- ------------------------------------

The first gives an idea of what we could do and the second gives an idea of why we aren't.

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Of course, hydrogen is just a potentially portable form of energy, not a source. The excitement over it derives from the fact that it might help us keep our automobile culture. But the best hard-headed analysis of hydrogen I've seen is in

Scientific American

where Matthew Wald argues that to curb global warming, we're better off using hydrogen in stationary settings, where it can displace coal, instead of oil. And even if we erected vast square miles worth of solar arrays to generate hydrogen to run cars, we'd have to run them on something. Just to meet the US annual paving needs with renewable biological products instead of petroleum would require one-third of out entire forest growth every year. The automobile economy just isn't supportable.

Stan Cox

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Strange how a bunch of oil people (Bush, Cheney, Rice, Bush 41) have ignored peak Oil issues, given an overly optimistic (lies in pre-Bush doublespeak) estimates of when global peak oil will occur while chicken-littling Social Security.

They need to be called on it!

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People above make a good point about US Christians and oil. I, like many, many people in the West outside the US, have essentially lost whatever faith we may have had that any solution to this can come from the US. Just last week in Australia, a major and reputable poll showed that more Australians now fear the US than islamic terrorism. Most Australians feel more comfortable about economic agreements with China than with the US. We are less worried about China's growing influence that we are about yours.

It think it's a mistake to assume that nothing can be done if the US doesn't do it first - the rest of the world is quietly sidelining the US in many areas because, after the last election, there's no other choice.

Russia is discussing selling its oil in Euros, as is Venezuela (and that country is planning to sell what it used to sell to the US to China). Canada is negotiating with China to build a pipeline to the west and sell up to a third of their

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continued...
China and India has stitched up the oil and gas reserves of Iran, along with the Europeans. Using the Euro as a second oil currency spells the end of the party for the US dollar - it is not coincidental that Iraq was the first country to start selling oil in Euros.

Guys - I hope the progressive voice in the US can help to change your country for the better. But don't make the mistake of thinking that's the only hope for the world. It's not - other countries are neither helpless nor passive in this situation. We are moving into a multipolar world, and the decline of the US is becoming more accepted and studied.

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Despite being an interesting article, it is one that the powers that be like to see fostered. The oil depletion in the US and the rest of the world has meant that the very few have become the very few fabulously wealthy. If oil reserves were somehow 'discovered' tomorrow then that money-spinning monopoly might come to an end. The great investigative journalist David Yallop, when reviewing any 'news' says to ask the question, 'Who does it benefit?'. Ask that and the road to the real truth starts to open.

Vast oil deposits have been discovered in Australia, capped, buried and marked on a map. Before howling your cries of impossible let me tell you my story, and then make up your own mind.
Oil In Australia?

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Its coming soon, so get ready.

Solution: You may not like it!

1. Nuclear ( 3000 years with a breeder , 300 without )
2. Coal (200 year supply )
3. massive conservation
4. Less cars and trucks, more rail
5. Wind and solar only about 20 %
6. Magic should take us the rest of the way.

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Yes we do need to foster alternative fuels and energy production methods and NOW!!! Not later when the big oil companies have us by the v-8 and won't let go. Lets start a new company no way part of any big oil companies. Cut the hose. They've had their chance to switch, all they want to do is mess up the last wilderness area to get the last drops to charge us $100 a barrel for. NO we won't pay those prices! lets promote solar panels on every home and business, community wind farms to power the communities, with tax breaks for the people who buy hybred vehicles, who have solar and or wind power generators installed on their homes.
Lets see ads for wind,solar systems on tv during prime time. If we can send solar powered machines to mars and have them last twice as long as they were designed, we can put solar panels on 75% of American homes for the same price. Get the oil companies out of position of control over these alt energy supplies, such as writing the regulations.

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None of the choices presented will sustain the human race for any significant period of time and it is just a matter of time before humans become relics of the past just like dinosaurs, and much to my pleasure San Francisco 49ers Superbowl wins.

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Every attempt to save oil or acquire more is a quick fix. Only finding new energy sources will suffice for a real fix. But look at our political system. Politicians have to look good in the short term if they wish to stay in office. The same is true of corporations. And more and more, the two are beginning to look the same. Don't expect the corporate executives in charge of this country to look for any real fixes until it's too late.

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I've come accross a lot of "doomsday" information about the end of the "oil driven ecconomy" It is incredible when it is broken down into how much oil is needed to produce a pound of beef or a bushel of corn. The details become mind boggling. I'm convinced that our politicians are aware of that. Our government takes our tax dollars to pay experts to come up with all of the info. Aren't WE "preaching to the choir"? Are there any people responding to this article who have ideas how individuals or small groups can take action? What about conversion of diesel motors to be able to use vegetable oil? I've looked into ecconomical vehicles, but fuel ecconomy goes out the window when you haul equipment. Drastic measures are needed towards the Oil Industry. It was their responsibilty to keep this from happening. I am looking for like minded persons who want to take actions against the Oil Industry and hit them where it hurts, the pocket book.Contact me at philonthehill@yahoo.com

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Ok, I have more than two words after all.

The need to decrease general consumption drastically is obvious. But most oil consumption happens pre-consumer: in making plastics, in transporting goods, in military efforts. I don't think all that infrastructure is going to change until it absolutely has no choice. As for what you and I can do, we can decrease our need for infrastructure itself. Those who are already cultivating their own energy, food and/or transportation needs are already doing this.
If we lessen our demand on the environment (by consuming less and using less wasteful methods in general) and focus on growing things like hemp that were tried and true in older land-based cultures, wouldn't that give us a distinct advantage in um, sustaining our existence? Not that you can convince the apocalyptic nut jobs who populate much of the u.s. to think in these terms, but I don't exactly mind of they don't make it into the post-oil era with us.

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Ironic that secret oil is hidden away in Australia, where they've been using alternative energies since the 1970s.

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Actually we're (Australia) one of the worst polluters per head in the world as we burn an iordinate amount of crappy cheap brown coal to power our power stations (and we don't use nuclear, which, however, I think is a good thing...).

We also have refused to sign the Kyoto agreement along with you guys.

However, there is a lot of alternative stuff happening, particularly with solar. Let's face it - this country is primarily a continent-sized flat hot plate...

The other interesting fact I found out recently is that the most car obsessed country in the world is New Zealand - according to a global poll. Went there a few weeks ago on holiday and the traffic jams in Auckland are insane. Bugger all public transport.

Probably one of the few areas in which the Kiwis are not miles ahead of everyone else...

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Stan Cox's article gives us an excellent picture of the onset of the energy transition period. We seem to have entered into the "worldwide fossil-fuel rush" with the Iraq invasion as the prototype situation. If the US had left the Iraqis to develop their own oil production they would be producing some 3 or 4 times what they are now producing under the occupation. Last year Andrew McKillop wrote that an attack on Iran would push the price well past the $60 mark. Now all are talking about how soon it will pass the $60 level and go on to $100, and with as yet no war on Iran. When this attack happens it will surely push the price past the $150 mark, so by the time we really do enter Hubbert's peak geophysically it will likely be pushing the $200-250 mark. A further point is that various
analysts have pointed out that retirement fund insurers and other unlikelies are now investing in oil shares as a "sure thing", and these investments can only increase as the prices rise.

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The article highlights the impact of declining oil supply on the operations of modern society and also alludes to the problems climate change are likely to cause. But there is no mention of one very major problem, over population. The fossil fuels have enabled a vast increase in food production. This has enabled an exponential growth in population in the past century. At the same time, they have increased their consumption of goods. This planet does not have the resources for that to continue. Having renewable sources of energy partially replace oil does not help ease the main problem.

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The pure truth of the matter is that there is a finite amount of oil on this planet. Like it or not, sooner or later we will have to face the fact that an alternative must be found to avoid chaos worldwide. Taking an informed guess at the worlds remaining amount of useable crude is a luxury we should not pretend we have.

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Big Oil has been WELL aware of peak oil since before Hubbert's Peak in 1957. Do you think THEIR geologist's are stupid? That's why they have been pushing for expanding into South America, Southeast Asia, and now the middle east and Caspian Basin. With China and India now stepping up to the sweet crude feed bag, oil prices will soar to over $100. a barrel VERY soon. BO will gladly take the windfall profits and say FU to the future. Alternative engines, wind, solar, hydro, have ALWAYS been there but no grants were available to underwrite technology and those who tried on their own were suppressed, bankrupted, and in some cases murdered. God Bless America!

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Sadly, the looming energy shortage (and the fighting for resources that comes with) is only part of the problem. Global warming and shifts in climate patterns (not to mention toxic pollution itself) will introduce problems that exacerbate those associated with the "other side of the Hubbert curve".

According to geologists, we have consumed about half of the oil the Earth has to offer thus far. Even if we stopped consuming oil "cold turkey" we would see our habbit's lasting effects for decades to come. Instead, we will probably end up burning most of the fossil fuels that lie hidden in the Earth before the end of the century (ie. at an excellerated rate). God only knows what permanent effects this will have on the environment, and whether it will constitute a hospitable environment for life or civilisation as we know it.

It sounds pessimistic, I know, but i don't hear much reverberation in the realm of daily life to convince me that the fog of oil addiction is being cleared away. Where is the mainstream environmental movement? It's late. It has been kidnapped. My guess is that a massive response will only follow serious hardship, or the leadership of an empassioned visionary who might stir us out of the complacency of habbit. Are there any likely candidates?

Those who have converted to a renewable energy lifestyle will enjoy the fruits of their own wisdom and foresight, but unless their practices catch on with the rest of the consuming world, they will be affected also. Climate change knows no boundaries, and does not discriminate.

Meanwhile most of us enjoy the peak of abundant energy. Soon the party will be over, and our children will have to clean up after us.

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On Saturday, April 9, 2005, at 11:45 PM, Patti Zahn wrote:

Dear Mike,

The following is a copy of an email that I have sent to some of my friends today. I also sent it to Senator Kerry, the "stupid white men" of the DNC, as well as other senators and congressmen in my state of California. Please let me know if you can help me disseminate this information.

Thank you,
Patti Zahn


CALL TO ACTION

ps: this topic is very important to me, so I'm asking anyone who wants too help me send a world wide internet address regarding the PRICE of OIL, thus GAS, which willl in turn raise the prices of ALL GOODS and SERVICES for people of ALL incomes around the world. I"M PISSED!! Let's call for a WORLD WIDE WORK STOPPAGE, let's call it an "ENERGY DAY", then maybe the PRICE of our GAS will go down.. As long as we continue to pay these outrageous prices the PRICE OF OIL will continue to RISE. Who benefits from this? The Bush Family, Bin Laden Family, The Saudi's , do I need to go any further. Did your WAGES increase by 25% over the past two weeks? Well neither did mine. PLEASE FELLOW AMERICANS AND GLOBAL COMMUNITIES AROUND THE WORLD. SAY NO TO THE PRICE OF OIL.

HAVE MONDAY'S OF EVERY WEEK STARTING MONDAY, APRIL 12, 2005, SET FORTH AS "ENERGY DAY", DON'T GO TO WORK, DON'T DRIVE AND DON'T BUY GAS ON MONDAY'S, until the PRICE of OIL is cut back worldwide.

MAKE A STATEMENT
CANCEL YOUR SUMMER VACATION PLANS NOW
CALL YOUR AIRLINE
HOTELS
CAR RENTAL AGENCIES

JUST SAY NO!!!

WE ARE ALL BEING SCREWED BY THIS ADMINISTRATION. STAND UP AND SAY "I'M MAD AS HELL AND I WON'T TAKE IT ANYMORE!"
Please send this email to all of your friends, business acquaintances, family, and neighbors. WE OUTNUMBER THEM. There are approximately 99% of US and only 1% of THEM.

Respectfully
Patti,
pzahn1122@charter.net

FORWARD THIS TO YOUR CONGRESSMAN/WOMAN AND SENATOR'S.

just copy and paste
Respectfully,


Patti Zahn
pzahn1122@charter.net
Respectfully,


Patti Zahn
pzahn1122@charter.net

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Nuclear power is the only energy source with sufficient energy density that can begin to transition energy consumption away from fossil fuel. Total energy consumption is increasing, so nuclear power is needed so that oil and natural gas can then be reserved as valuable petrochemical feed-stock, not burned with the resultant CO2 emission.

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Although a major use of petroleum is the production of fuel for transportation and heating, petroleum is also used to make a variety of products that have medicinal and other uses.

Assuming Hubbert's Peak arrives soon--and I believe it will--what is being done to provide for the continued production of these commodities, assuming they are valuable or even necessary?

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Its funny as today I have surfed the internet in a number of locations in order to get a feel for this oil price debate and I find that it still comes back to some simple fundamentals.

1. In the western world up to 75% of the price of fuel is tax. While your governments face is concerned and careing it is secretly lapping up the bugetary surplass. Think of it as a tax increase.This is the Governmental ME ME ME effect, wherebye, low and behold, money is the key incentive. The quickest way to cut the cost of fuel is to cut the tax associated with it. Given an unexpected 25-35% hike in oil prices then the tax contribution should be able to be cut by a similar ammount without effecting the chancellors predictions over the current financial year. You might note that no matter which political party you have voted for in your individual countries, not one of them has made this sacrifice. Hmm

2. While we jump up and down protesting the excesive greed of a few men, how many of us are looking at the realities of the situation and taking steps to aleviate the strain on the worlds natural resourses. A few thousand greeneys here and there live that kind of restrained careful existence. The rest of us, if we are truely honest, care only about the price of fuel and not whether to use it or not. Very rarely do I here debates about how to use less energy, how to save, or store it on a personal level. Essentially how to, dare i say it, consume less.
I think as far as God is concerned the peak of the oil supply curve may not have been reached but the peak of the ME ME ME curve is about to head down hill fast.

3. My advice is, hold tight, we are in for a bumpy ride as the ME ME ME people don't like change, even when it is there own greed that creates the future. And there lies the key greed will save many of us from our own folly. Oil is precious and as I have read a number of times, turning it into CO2 is likely to cost us our future, our environment, and possibly our whole planet, so if more catagory 5 storms emerge, or china's enormous stockpile of oil grows further, or more oil related things just go wrong, then have faith that Heaven is colectively trying to save our worthless butts and to educate us at the same time.
When man stepped out of the primordial ooze he discovered fire, Natures biggest issue with us is whether we can put asside our obsession with it.
Thankyou, Dreamwizard

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