Southern Strategies

Do progressives and Democrats have a future in the South? Ever since the great unpleasantness of last November, a chorus of left-leaning pundits have taken the region's defeats -- no electoral votes for John Kerry, zero-for-five in open races for U.S. Senate -- as a sure sign that the South is a lost cause. Fold up the tent, the doubters say. Focus our energy elsewhere. Or as one indelicate yet frequently forwarded e-mail after the elections put it, "F-ck the South."

Not so fast, say the South's defenders -- especially Southern progressives. Given that almost a third of the country lives in the South and it's growing fast, and that the South still sets the tone for national politics (look at the Tennesseans and Texans who lead the White House and Capitol Hill), ignoring the South is hardly an option.

Besides, there's a rich progressive legacy in the South, and Democrats are far from dead: There are four Southern Democratic governors, hundreds of Democratic state legislators, and in six of 13 Southern states, more registered voters identify as Democrats than Republicans.

Enter "New Strategies for Southern Progress," a gathering of some 200 Democratic Party leaders, academics, journalists and assorted progressives in Chapel Hill, N.C. Convened by Washington, D.C.'s Center for American Progress; the Center for a Better South; and the UNC Program on Southern Politics, Media and Public Life, the conference aimed to "identify pragmatic and innovative solutions to the region's toughest problems" and, more boldly, "chart a new progressive vision for the region."

For inspiration, conference organizers invoked the memory of the LQC Lamar Society, a handful of "New South" moderate-to-liberal Democrats formed in 1969 who championed integration, education and economic development. Lamar Society veterans Hodding Carter III and ex-Mississippi Gov. William Winter opened the conference, and for Southerners and South-watchers too young to remember a day before unending GOP victory speeches, hearing the legacy of Jimmy Carter, Reubin Askew of Florida, Dale Bumpers of Arkansas and North Carolina's own Terry Sanford was a reminder that the "Mind of the South" is never fixed, and can always be changed again.

From grassroots activists to party insiders, everyone came with open eyes about the challenges -- and potential -- Southern progressives face. "Conservatives are in charge because they toiled for years and years to come up with the answers," observed Arkansas State Rep. Joyce Elliot, a three-term African-American legislator. "It's going to take time for us, too." But attendees left visibly conflicted on some fundamental questions: What kind of politics can -- and should -- win in the region? And what are our bedrock values and long-term vision for the future?

The differences came into focus on day two, during a panel charting the changing attitudes of the Southern electorate. The pollsters, consultants and academics honed in on a key reason for Democratic losses in the South: the defection of the white moderate. "We've lost the white working-class male," said David "Mudcat" Saunders, the much-quoted Virginia consultant and ambassador of the "NASCAR dads" strategy.

Poll analyst Ruy Teixeira rolled out a compelling set of numbers to back up the claim: Although the ideology of the Southern electorate hasn't changed over the last decade -- it's now 14 percent liberal, 41 percent moderate and 45 percent conservative, only a hair to the right of 1996 -- voting patterns have. Bill Clinton got 46 percent to Bob Dole's 44 percent of the Southern white moderate vote in '96; in 2004 Kerry had a 58-to-41 deficit to Bush among the same voting group. Even accounting for Clinton's Southern touch, it's clear that Democrats have lost ground.