Cultural Alien

From the Center for American Progress and The Century Foundation:

In this edition of Public Opinion Watch:

(covering polls and related articles from the weeks of Oct.25 – Nov. 7, 2004)

• Lessons of the 2004 Election
• A Tour of the 2004 Exit Poll: What It Says and What It Doesn't

Lessons of the 2004 Election

Well, a second term for George W. Bush it is. Not a smashing victory for him: he took the popular vote by a 51 percent to 48 percent margin and gained two new states (Iowa and New Mexico) by 50 percent to 49 percent margins, while losing one old state (New Hampshire) by a 50 percent to 49 percent margin.

What are the lessons Democrats can draw from Bush's victory? How was Bush able to hang onto power despite the poor economy, Iraq, the health care crisis, and so on?

1. The limits of mobilization: Democrats put great stock in mobilization and the ground game. And Kerry did do better in many areas where there was intensive mobilization. For example, in Ohio, Kerry carried Franklin County (Columbus) by 41,000 votes, compared to Gore's margin of just 4,000 last election, and carried Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) by 218,000 voters, compared to Gore's margin of 166,000 in 2000. But these gains were mostly canceled out by Republican mobilization in conservative rural and exurban areas, so Ohio, in the end, was only slightly closer (2.5 percentage points) than it was in 2000 (3.5 points).

As another example, the exit polls indicate that 23 percent of voters this year were minorities, up from 19 percent in 2000. So Democrats were reasonably successful in getting minorities to the polls But these data indicate that Hispanics only supported Kerry 53 percent to 44 percent, a dramatic compression from Gore's 62 percent to 35 percent margin among the same group in 2000. (Note, however, that there is some controversy about whether Democratic support among Hispanics was really as low as these data indicate – see the discussion above.) And – much more consequential for the election – the exit polls say that Bush widened his margin among white voters to 17 points (58 percent to 41 percent), up from a 12-point margin (54 percent to 42 percent) in 2000. Weakened support among Hispanics and, especially, a bigger deficit among whites (still 77 percent of voters) was more than enough to cancel out the effect of more minority voters going to the polls.

2. The limits of anti-Bushism: Kerry had much to say that was very critical of Bush and certainly there was much to criticize in the areas of the economy, tax cuts, Iraq, health care, energy policy and so on. These criticisms were directed at genuine weak points in Bush's record and there is good evidence that most voters shared at least some of these criticisms. Bush was not, and is not, a particularly popular incumbent, so attacking his record was an inevitable and important part of Kerry's campaign.

The problem, however, was that Kerry never managed to convince many of the same voters who shared his criticisms of the Bush administration that he could and would do a better job in the areas he criticized. To cite just one example from the exit poll, voters were asked if they trusted Bush to handle the economy: 51 percent said no and 49 percent said yes. Not so good for an incumbent. But voters rated Kerry even worse: 53 percent said they didn't trust him to handle the economy, compared to just 45 percent who said they did.

And all through the campaign, up to the very end, there was abundant evidence that voters did not think he had a clear plan for Iraq or, for that matter, for the country in general. His campaign was notable for lacking signature themes and proposals that typical voters could easily grasp and identify with. Does anyone seriously believe that many voters knew or understood Kerry's plan for Iraq? For health care? For the economy? How many voters knew the one or two thematic phrases (if they existed) that summarized what John Kerry stood for?