Whither Pennsylvania?

A few miles southeast of the wooded ridges of Valley Forge, where George Washington's army spent the bitter winter of 1777-1778, lies the King of Prussia Mall, the largest shopping complex in the world. The Philadelphia suburbs that surround its halls of Eddie Bauer, Foot Locker, and smooth-jazz Muzak are one of the places that may decide the 2004 presidential election.

Pennsylvania voted for Reagan and Bush I in the 1980s, but went for Clinton in the 1990s. Al Gore won it by 220,000 votes in 2000, a margin of 50-46 percent. The conventional wisdom is that the state consists of "Philadelphia and Pittsburgh surrounded by Kentucky"; two big cities balanced by isolated, mountainous rural counties.

Democrats, says state party director Don Morabito, rely on a "four corners strategy": Philadelphia, which Gore carried by better than 4-1 in 2000, piling up a 340,000-vote margin, along with Pittsburgh and the industrial small towns in the southwest, Erie in the northwest, and the old coal-and-steel areas of Allentown/Bethlehem and Scranton/Wilkes-Barre in the northeast, which Gore won narrowly in 2000. Meanwhile, Republicans try to maximize turnout in the rural areas and the Pennsylvania Dutch country around York and Lancaster, the most solidly Republican part of the Northeast, where George Bush won by a 2-1 margin in 2000.

The key to the state may be in the Philadelphia suburbs: Bucks, Delaware, Chester, and Montgomery counties. They cast about one million votes in 2000, more than a fifth of the state's total, and gave Gore a 53,000-vote margin.

In the Mall: the Undecided

"I'm still swinging," says Mark Wensel, 45, a shipping-industry salesman from Media at the King of Prussia mall. He's a registered Republican who turned against the Iraq war when no weapons of mass destruction were found, but dislikes Kerry, saying he "tells people what they want to hear." His ultimate choice may be personal – "who would you rather have a beer with?"

Another undecided voter, Barbara Nichter, 56, of Drexel Hill, repeatedly describes the campaign as "frustrating. You don't know what is true and what is not true." She voted for Bush in 2000 and is leaning towards him again. Though she works for a healthcare consultant and likes Kerry's healthcare position, she feels that Bush is "a better commander in chief. We need to be aggressive."

Nancy Perkins, 44, of King of Prussia, is also frustrated with the "accusations and innuendo." She's divided between supporting Bush's "handling the terrorism situation" and disagreeing with him on social issues; she's "definitely for abortion rights" and says "if two people love each other, why shouldn't they be able to get married?" She gently remonstrates with her 17-year-old daughter, who calls Bush "a moron." "I can't understand these undecideds. Make a frickin' decision!" exclaims Denise Watkins, 44, of Philadelphia, at the mall with her 18-year-old daughter. She endorsed Kerry months ago, she says, because Bush is using faith-based initiatives "to get out of helping inner cities," because "I will never vote for a pro-life politician," and because in Iraq, "if you're making the wrong damn decision, how is it admirable to stick with it?"

"Just not Bush," says Ken Moore, 23, of Havertown, who says in the debates, Bush "seemed to have no clue." "Not Bush. The other one," echoes Helen Smith, 80, of Conshohocken, who says she has to spend more than $200 a month on medicine.

Two firm Bush supporters are Ryan and Jessica Swailes, a pharmaceutical-salesperson couple from the rural town of Williamsport. Bush "takes a strong stance on what he thinks," explains Ryan, 28, while Kerry "is a chameleon." Even if there was no link between Saddam Hussein and the 9/11 attacks, adds Jessica, 25, "you can't say Iraq is not better off without Saddam. His sons killed people for no reason." The two believe that "the media need to cover the good things more, not just the negative," says Ryan. "That's why we started watching Fox News. They give both sides." Another registered Republican, 21-year-old Penn State student Dan Iannucci, says he will vote against Bush, even though his friends call him "a bleeding heart." Bush's huge budget deficit is not "real Republican" economics, he explains, and the president went into Iraq "without a plan to win the peace. If it was you or me and you planned that poorly for something that important, you'd be fired."