The Morning After

By Kim Haddow and Holly Minch, AlterNet. Posted August 16, 2004.

We may think we're too focused on the election to worry now about what comes next. But planning can't wait until after the victory party. Our opportunity to be influential after the election starts now.

Progressive advocates need to think ahead about how to use the election year excitement to build momentum toward long-term goals. We need to think through the political and organizational consequences of possible outcomes and develop our "To Do List" now for the immediate post-election period and through the first two quarters of 2005.

Consequences for Your Cause

What will it mean if it's President Bush or President Kerry? The scenarios for progressive groups may be a little different depending on who wins the White House. Every organization needs to map out the potential national and local political landscape. Consider:

If Bush Wins

We may all be tempted to apply for Canadian citizenship in the event that President Bush wins his first election. But a Bush victory means serious work for progressives.

Consider the political positioning of your organization: What can we do to stave off four more years of disaster? If Bush is (re?) elected and you are working to reauthorize the Endangered Species Act, raise the minimum wage, or secure voting rights for convicted felons – you may need to forget federal action and work the grassroots and statehouses even harder. Now is the time for a serious strategy re-assessment.

If Kerry Wins

After the dancing in the streets, after the effects of celebratory champagne, we've still got work to do. Many progressives may be tempted to go home and forget about politics for a while. But if we want to make a Kerry win meaningful, we have to be strategic and smart starting November 3rd.

Progressive groups will have a real opportunity to redefine their political positioning. We'll all have to consider what we need to do to position ourselves to influence the new Administration. How can we position ourselves to see policy victories over the next four years? And how fast do we need to mobilize to do it? Kerry will be looking for administrative action in the first 100 days to overturn damage done by the Bush administration, and we should be ready to supply him with ideas on the issues that matter to us.

A Kerry win will also mean some fundamental shifts in organizational thinking. Progressive groups will need to evaluate their programs and shift from a defensive posture to a proactive one. Now is the time to retool. Are there issues or campaigns you want to launch in this new environment? This also applies to organizing and messaging.

If No One Wins

There's a very real possibility that we may experience another cliffhanger. Given how close the margins are expected to be in many states, we may see recounts that drag on for days or weeks. And it may not be just the White House this time around – we may also see recounts in hotly contested Senate races that have the ability to tip the balance of power.

If you are working in a swing state where the election is contested and recounts are hot, for heaven's sake mobilize! Take a lesson from the 2000 Bush campaign, which turned out supporters, credible talking heads and staged rallies from day one of the Florida recount. Be vocal and visible in case of a recount in your area. Work the media, who will undoubtedly descend upon the story like bees to honey.

Beyond the White House

Of course the race for top dog is the key focus for many this year, but there are a host of other races that will impact the work ahead.

Congressionally

Progressive groups need to assess what will the outcome of House or Senate elections mean for your issue. Is there potential to educate and develop a champion for your cause? Now is the time to develop relationships with your Representatives.

What would the consequences be if the Democrats pick up the two seats they need to become the majority party in the US Senate? We should all be thinking about progressive action that could be taken in the first session of the next Congress.

Statewide

Eleven states have gubernatorial races this year, and the decisions in these contests will be of critical importance to groups working on issues like education, heath care, the environment, and budget issues.

Many progressive groups are fighting ballot initiative battles this year on issues ranging from gay marriage to minimum wage. What will happen if your ballot referendum is defeated? Do you go the ballot route again in the next election cycle or take a different tack?

Locally

What will the elections of local officials mean for your efforts? Again, this is the time to develop relationships with your local elected officials and educate them on your issues.

Judicially

No matter who wins, there will be fierce fights over next nominees to the US Supreme Court. With as many as four retirements expected after the election, the High Court will be the big battleground after the election. And with so much at stake – civil liberties, personal rights, future presidential elections, expect groups at both ends of the political spectrum to be pushing their favorite nominees.

Kim Haddow and Holly Minch are editors of "Loud and Clear in an Election Year," a guidebook for community advocates who want to make their voices heard in the elections. The book is published by the SPIN Project and available at spinproject.org. The SPIN project is a project of the Independent Media Institute, which is also the parent organization of Alternet.

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