New Mexico Trending Blue

Despite a razor-thin majority of 366 votes for Al Gore in the 2000 election, New Mexico appears to be turning from purple to blue. There are good indications that the Democrats will make a strong showing there in 2004, in part because of the popularity of its new governor, Bill Richardson.

A Zogby Interactive Poll released on July 14, which tracks the New Mexico numbers for the presidential race every two weeks, had Kerry leading Bush 49% to 42%, with Nader at 3% and undecided at 6%. A July 9th American Research Group poll had almost identical numbers, with 49% of likely voters for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today, and 42% for Bush. A total of 3% of likely voters say they would vote for Ralph Nader and 6% of likely voters said they were undecided.

If this trend continues, and it is hard to see it shifting, it suggests that Democrats, who have targeted the Southwest as an area of opportunity, should worry less about New Mexico – where they are well organized and have a number of electoral advantages over the GOP – and worry more about neighboring states in contention like Nevada, where the political dynamics are less favorable.

What a difference two years makes

Two years ago, the Governor of New Mexico was Gary Johnson, a wealthy Republican businessman, who cut a major profile nationally as an anomalous drug war reformer, but who, except for that one issue, was a Bush supporter and followed the Republican platform right down the line.

Enter Bill Richardson: Richardson was a New Mexico congressman before first serving in the Clinton Cabinet as Energy Secretary, then as Ambassador to the United Nations. Richardson, whose mother is from Mexico, is wildly popular among Latino voters, and gets strong support from Native Americans, moderates, and liberals. This broad support translated to a 17-point victory over his Republic opponent (the Green candidate got 5%) in 2002, and Richardson has no doubt significantly expanded the base of Democratic voters in the State since then.

Since his election, Richardson has governed like a centrist, pushing hard for improvements in education – creating a Secretary post to oversee the schools and raising teachers' pay – and not so hard on the issue of health care. Under Richardson, the staggering health care system in New Mexico has worsened; the cost of insurance premiums and prescription drugs continue to soar. (For more on this, see Alternet's article by Dan Frosch)

Meanwhile Richardson been visible nationally, making frequent talking head appearances on the national television. His profile among Latinos solidified when he gave a response to President Bush's State of the Union address on Univision, the flagship Spanish-speaking channel in the United States. Being rumored as a serious candidate for vice president didn't hurt, either. Richardson's reputation as a crack fundraiser is also growing. Albuquerque political consultant Eli Lee says, "people want to meet Richardson – they want to say they know the guy who may be the first Latino president."

Richardson is also evolving into a Democratic Party powerhouse with his Moving America Forward PAC; an organization focused on registering Latino voters in eight states that have significant Hispanic populations. There is plenty of work on the ground in New Mexico, and the Richardson effort is apparently going great guns in Florida as well, where there is a 36-person canvass in operation. But Richardson has steered clear of Nevada, where local groups and unions are targeting the Latino vote.

Democrats prevailing statewide

Another political factor that is helping New Mexico trend blue is the fact that Democrats look strong in this year's three House races. In New Mexico's second congressional district, a traditionally conservative stronghold in the southern part of the state, Gary King, the popular son of a former governor, has a decent chance of knocking off first-term Republican Congressman Steve Pearce. In the third district, which includes Santa Fe, Democratic incumbent Tom Udall, the son of former Interior Secretary Stewart Udall, is secure.