A Perfect Storm of Partisanship

There has never been a shortage of partisanship in presidential campaigns, as each party spends millions of dollars to support its nominee and rally its base. Yet while both sides have willingly supported their candidates in recent years, there hasn't been a lot of excitement.

"Wake Us When It's Over" was the title of Jack W. Germond and Jules Witcover's book about the 1984 election between Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale.

In 1996, everyone knew that Bill Clinton would have no trouble trouncing Bob Dole.

While the 2000 campaign was dramatic because it was close, the most suspense-filled part of the election came after Election Day, as the two parties challenged one another in Florida and the Supreme Court.

This year, however, is different. Due to Democratic anger, Republican determination, a longer general election campaign and an electorate that is closely following the campaign and remains sharply divided, the 2004 election is set to become the most partisan in decades.

"Everything's going in the same direction," said Burdett Loomis, a political science professor at the University of Kansas and the co-editor of "Choosing a President: The Electoral College and Beyond." "When the winds start sweeping off the Plains, there's nothing to stop them."

Democratic Ire, Republican Determination

Thanks to Florida and anger over the way the White House is handling Iraq, the economy and other issues, Democrats are determined not to allow President Bush a second term. That was clear during the primaries, when voters rated electability as one of their chief reasons for choosing John Kerry. The rise in grassroots groups and the record amount of money raised -- first by Howard Dean last year, then by Kerry in the first quarter of this year -- is proof that Democrats are revved up for November.

Republicans, on the other hand, are just as determined to keep Bush where he is. They've sent his campaign record amounts of money. Laura Bush is becoming more of a presence on the campaign trail, helping to raise money for congressional candidates, according to The Hill. Karl Rove is reaching out to Bush's base, determined that the evangelical voters who stayed home in 2000 make it to the polls this year. Bush's opposition to gay marriage and defense of his tax cuts despite the rising deficit are signs that pleasing GOP diehards is his first concern.

The involvement of third-party groups, such as MoveOn.org and the Club for Growth, is helping to shrink the middle too. "So many forces are pushing toward a partisan election, not just the Democratic and Republican parties," Loomis said. Earlier this month, the St. Petersburg (Fla.) Democratic Club came under fire for urging that voters should "pull the trigger" on Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld.

Congressional races aren't immune from the increased partisanship, either. The Club for Growth is supporting Rep. Pat Toomey (R-Pa.) in his bid to unseat Sen. Arlen Specter (R-Pa.), even though a Toomey win in the April 27 primary could cost Republicans that seat this fall. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Tex.) led efforts to redraw the Texas redistricting map and give the GOP an edge in House seats for the next decade. Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist (R-Tenn.) is campaigning for former Rep. John Thune (R-S.D.), who is challenging Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle (D-S.D.). As Roll Call reported recently, it's the first time in recent memory that one party's leader has challenged the other on his home turf.

"You look someplace for an opposite trend and have a very difficult time finding it," Loomis said.

A Split Electorate

Another reason for the split is that "We're in a transitional phase in many different respects," said Darrell West, a political science professor at Brown University and the author of several books on presidential and congressional campaigns. "The Bush administration has changed the country's approach to fiscal and foreign policy. Not surprisingly, that has spurred a lot of controversy."