Kerry Wins Battles Not War

The race for the Democratic presidential nomination is now essentially a contest between Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) and two southern alternatives after Tuesday's seven-state primary.

Kerry was the big winner on Feb. 3, sweeping the Arizona, Delaware and Missouri primaries, as well as the North Dakota caucus. Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) strengthened his prospects with a double-digit win in South Carolina, where he was born and which he had dubbed a "must win" contest. With 99 percent of the precincts reporting in Oklahoma, there is still no certified winner. Gen. Wesley Clark seems to have narrowly edged out Edwards, who was tied with him for 30 percent of the vote. While the breakdown is not yet available in New Mexico, CNN is picking Kerry as the winner there at press time.

Kerry’s string of victories served to once again reconfirm his frontrunner status. "It’s not a certainty, but it’s still a strong probability that Kerry will win" the nomination, said Steven Schier, a political science professor at Carleton College in Northfield, Minn.

Edwards victory is a much-needed boost to keep his campaign alive, as is Clark's narrow win. They both won their "must win" states, but will still have to win outside their political comfort zone to show they have broader appeal. Besides South Carolina, Edwards finished second in Missouri, while Clark was the runner-up in Arizona and North Dakota.

A poor showing Tuesday ended Sen. Joe Lieberman’s (D-Conn.) presidential hopes, eliminating the race’s least liberal candidate. Lieberman had spent much of the past week in Delaware, hoping a win in at least one state would move his campaign forward. Instead, he finished a very distant second to Kerry there. Lieberman called his choice to drop out a "difficult but realistic decision."

The Rev. Al Sharpton won about 10 percent of the vote in South Carolina, where almost half of all voters are African American. But Sharpton finished third among black voters, behind Edwards and Kerry. Edwards is now pitching his victory as evidence of his ability to bring African American and white rural voters together to create a winning coalition.

It was a demoralizing night for former Gov. Howard Dean (D-Vt.), who trailed significantly in every state but New Mexico. Dean had already ceded the Feb. 3 states by not running advertising, and told CNN's Larry King, "We didn’t expect any wins, so we can’t be disappointed." He plans to focus instead on later contests in Washington on Saturday and Wisconsin on Feb. 17.

Dean shook up his campaign last week by replacing his top adviser, but it is unclear whether the move is too little, too late to save his White House bid. Still, Dean -- who admitted this weekend that his campaign had taken "a gamble" in Iowa and New Hampshire that didn’t pay off -- shrugged off suggestions in recent days that he should quit the race if he was winless Tuesday.

"To suggest that anyone ought to step out of the race after 10 percent of the delegates are selected is ridiculous," he said. In a speech to his supporters, he vowed to keep "going, and going, and going, like the Energizer bunny."

Kerry is expected to do well in the Saturday races in Michigan and Washington, as well as in Maine on Sunday. But contests in Virginia and Tennessee on Feb. 10 could offer Edwards a chance to repeat his southern victories, which explains why he headed straight to Memphis Tuesday night.

In the first nationwide test of candidates' appeal, electability remained a top priority for voters. A recent USA Today/CNN/ Gallup Poll showed Kerry defeating President Bush by 53 to 46 percent, and Edwards winning with 49 percent to 48 percent for the president. Bush, however, beat other Democratic candidates in the poll. The survey also pointed to Bush’s vulnerability come November. His job-approval rating stands at 49 percent, with a 48 percent disapproval rating.