Kerry Sweeps New Hampshire

By Mary Lynn F. Jones, AlterNet. Posted January 27, 2004.

Boosted by his victory in Iowa last week, Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) secured his position as the Democratic presidential frontrunner by decisively winning the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday.

Kerry’s strong finish "puts him in an excellent position for the following primary states," said Darrell West, a political science professor at Brown University.

With 90 percent of the precincts reporting results after a record turnout, Kerry took 39 percent of the vote, followed by former Gov. Howard Dean (D-Vt.), who won 26 percent. Gen. Wesley Clark trailed with 13 percent, Sen. John Edwards (D-N.C.) earned 12 percent, Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-Conn.) got 9 percent and Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-Ohio) took 1 percent.

New Hampshire voters followed in Iowans’ footsteps by selecting the candidate they believed would be best able to defeat President Bush. The three in 10 voters who said they most wanted a candidate who would stand up for what he believes favored Dean by more than 2-to-1 over Kerry. But the two in 10 who most wanted a candidate who could defeat George Bush favored Kerry by almost 6-to-1.

Kerry’s victory also reinforced the importance of domestic issues in the campaign. Three in 10 voters named healthcare as their most important issue in exit polls, followed by Iraq and the economy which were the number one issues for two in 10, respectively.

And Kerry benefited from the support of the many independent voters who took part in the New Hampshire primary. Almost half of the voters were registered as independents, a third of whom backed Kerry, compared to the one-fourth who backed Dean

In his victory speech, Kerry repeated many of the same populist themes he cited in Iowa: the need to repeal tax cuts pushed by the Bush administration, invest more money in health care and education, reduce poverty and increase support for veterans. He said that he would seek to build a prosperous America "where we will reduce the poverty of millions rather than reducing the taxes of millionaires.''

But opposition to the war in Iraq was still a key issue in New Hampshire and helped Dean finish a healthy second. That suggests the war will continue to motivate voters in upcoming primaries.

Dean’s runner-up status gives him needed momentum as he tries to regain his footing in the Feb. 3 primaries. Seven states -- Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Carolina -- hold contests next Tuesday. Dean’s national organization and fundraising advantage are likely to help his prospects as candidates will no longer be able to concentrate on a single state but must rely more heavily on surrogates, organization and advertising to reach voters in a nationwide campaign. He can also point to his double-digit lead over Clark, Edwards and Lieberman as a sign of his viability.

But Dean, who stressed his status as the Washington outsider, must win at least one state next week in order to remain a realistic contender. "He is cooked if he doesn’t win next Tuesday in the Sunbelt," said Brad Bannon, a Democratic political consultant in Washington, D.C.

Democratic National Committee Chairman Terry McAuliffe echoed that sentiment in a New York Times article. Noting that nine states will hold contests by Feb. 4, McAuliffe said, "If you haven’t won in one of the nine states in all the regions of our country, with all the different constituencies involved, then I think it’s time to reassess your candidacy." When pushed to name one such state on Fox News by Brit Hume -- who cited McAuliffe's comment -- Dean replied that he would instead "put a finger on Terry McAuliffe," suggesting that the DNC chair should remain above the fray and not get into the business of winnowing the field.

Kerry’s challenge is also the same. He has to win in at least one of the seven states next week and "prove that he is a national candidate," Bannon noted.

The candidates are likely to target specific states heading into Feb. 3. Edwards -- who told CNN his fourth-place finish was "very encouraging" -- said he will "naturally be stronger" in Southern states, such as South Carolina, Oklahoma and Missouri. He noted that South Carolina is a must-win state for him; he was born there and planned to head there Tuesday night. Dean named Michigan, South Carolina, New Mexico and Arizona as states he will visit in the next week after spending Wednesday in Vermont. Kerry plans to focus intensely on Missouri, which is up for grabs after Rep. Dick Gerhardt's (D-Mo.) withdrawal last week.

Unlike Iowa, it appears that a loss in New Hampshire will not end any major candidate’s campaign. Lieberman, who declined to campaign in Iowa so he could focus on New Hampshire, has already spent money on ads in states voting on Feb. 3. But it is clear that his stance against the war hurt him in the Granite State, as did his uncharismatic performance on the stump -- despite all his talk about "Joementum."

Clark, who also skipped Iowa to campaign in New Hampshire, essentially tied with Edwards, who spent much less time there. But Clark, who some political observers considered the anti-Dean, had already fallen in the polls after Dean placed third in Iowa. Clark was also criticized for not distancing himself from Michael Moore’s comments that President Bush was a "deserter" and for his unclear positions on issues such as the war and abortion. And, in terms of electability and military issues, "Kerry occupies the very same real estate Clark wanted to occupy," West said. More importantly, Clark lost important ground to Kerry among New Hampshire veterans, who overwhelmingly picked first Kerry and then Dean. It can't be good news for a man who is running on his reputation as a four-star general.

Kerry and Dean’s strong finishes were not a surprise. Polls taken in recent days had shown them holding the top spots in New Hampshire. Dean said his Iowa loss cost him his prior lead in the New Hampshire polls, and pre-primary polls there showed that many voters wanted until the last few days to make up their minds. But New Hampshire also has a tradition of favoring candidates from Massachusetts; Michael Dukakis and Paul Tsongas of Massachusetts won the state in 1988 and 1992, respectively.

But Kerry is the first of the Massachusetts trio to win in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Voters in the two states often bestow victories on different candidates. In 2000, Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) upset Gov. George W. Bush (R-Texas) in the Granite State. Four years earlier, Pat Buchanan defeated Sen. Bob Dole (R-Kan.) here after Dole won in Iowa.

The last two Democrats seeking a first term in the White House who won both states -- Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Al Gore in 2000 -- went on to win the nomination. No doubt Kerry will find that a promising precedent as he heads into next week’s contests and seeks to further cement his lead.

Mary Lynn F. Jones is online editor of The Hill.

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