Wooing the Single Women Vote

Meet the single woman, breadwinner, cultural icon, and the star of every liberal's dream of regime change. Whether she is a divorced waitress in Harlem, a welfare mom in Iowa, or that thirty-something singleton sipping a Cosmopolitan at your local bar, the unmarried woman may hold the fate of the 2004 elections in the palm of her hand.

"Unmarried women, given what they think and feel, are the group with the greatest potential to be agents of progressive change in this country because of their size, their desire for change, and their record of under-voting," says Page Gardner, manager of the "Women's Voices Women's Vote" project.

Never-married, divorced or widowed women constitute a whopping 24 percent of the electorate and 42 percent of all registered women voters. In the 2000 elections, they represented the same percentage of the electorate as Jews, blacks, and Latinos combined. In terms of voting muscle, few can compete with the girl power of this constituency.

The good news is that they overwhelmingly vote Democrat. In fact, when viewed strictly in terms of percentage points, Bush led by one point among married women in 2000, while unmarried women preferred Al Gore by 31 points.

The liberal tilt among unmarried women voters is less a matter of feminism than economics. Chris Desser, who heads the Women's Vote project, says that unmarried women's politics are shaped by their position as the sole breadwinner. "From an economic perspective, they make less money and they're living much closer to the edge," she says. "They're just one income away from disaster if anything were to happen."

Their precarious position in the U.S. economy makes them more responsive to core Democratic messages about health care, job security, and retirement benefits. "Democrats stand for helping people make their way in the world and offering the protection and assurances they need to do so," says Ruy Teixeira, co-author along with John B. Judis of "The Emerging Democratic Majority." Given a labor market skewed toward men and their single-income status, single women welcome the presence of a nurturing Uncle Sam in their lives.

Less susceptible to appeals based on national security, unmarried women remained unimpressed with Bush in the wake of the 9/11 attacks, even as the rest of the nation swung right. In the 2002 mid-term elections, 56 percent of married women voted for the GOP compared to a mere 39 percent of unmarried women. "This group is distinct from the overall electorate. They are very economically sensitive, and very Democratic," says Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg.

Greenberg argues that the progressive bent of unmarried women goes deeper than just their marital status. Rather, they reflect deeper changes among women in general as a result of long-term cultural and demographic shifts. "This group of unmarried women is very distinct from unmarried women in previous generations," she says.

While the shift to the left is partly due to increasing education levels and the women's movement, it is also a function of divorce. She says, "Women who get divorced are really transformed politically in a lot of ways. With the divorce rate at 50 percent, that has a huge impact on women." As a group, unmarried women are also younger than those in the '50s, making them less attracted to the social conservative agenda of the GOP. And there is evidence to suggest that these women are unlikely to turn Republican even if they do acquire a wedding ring some time in the future or even as they grow older. In the long run, if these women remain liberal, irrespective of their marital status, the so-called "marriage gap" may begin to shrink.

All of the above is music to Democratic ears, especially with the presidential elections around the corner. But here's the catch: voter turnout. Page Gardner, who manages the Women's Vote project, describes single women as "the single largest demographic group of non-voters." Although single women comprise 46 percent of all eligible women voters, they only represent 42 percent of women registered to vote. And of those registered, only 52 percent actually voted in 2000. Sixteen million of them did not register to vote in 2000 and 21-plus million never made it to the polling booth on Election Day. Married people, in general, are 27 percent more likely to register to vote as single people.