Tattered Road Map Still Legible

By Ian Williams, AlterNet. Posted June 17, 2003.

Amazingly, the "Road Map," has survived the Israeli cabinet's attempts to fold it into an origami dead duck with its "14 serious concerns" that it wanted the United States to sign on to -- and an Israeli assassination attempt on Hamas almost certainly contrived to provoke a suicide attack that would give Israel an excuse to break off talks.

As past precedent dictated, this attack was followed in sanguinary succession by a suicide bomb on a bus, and then more Israeli assassinations. But this time even the White House seems to have understood what was happening, singling out the initial assassination attempt for condemnation. What's more, it seems the United States is not accepting that the ensuing suicide attacks are a legitimate excuse to call off the talks.

There is, of course, a history behind this. Most recent Mideast peace processes have had a built-in self-destruct device that can, and will be, triggered by the fanatics on both sides if the old Yitzhak Shamir tactic of simply stalling annoys the Americans too much. And the "14 serious concerns" had exactly such a clause, which the violence triggered.

It is not paranoia to think of sabotage in this connection. When things looked too peaceful back in 2000, Ariel Sharon decided to go for a provocative walk around at the Al Aqsa Mosque. For the Palestinians, Sharon is, of course, not just any Israeli politician, but the one on Belgium's wanted list for his responsibility for the Sabra and Shatila massacre. And so the current Intifada exploded.

People have accused Sharon of many things, but rarely of stupidity. He knew what he was doing at Al Aqsa: Winning the next Israeli election, and frustrating the Labor Party's tentative moves towards a peace settlement. His recent behavior fell into the same pattern, talking peace while relying on the hawkish factions inside the Israeli services to mount a provocation -- confident that their counterparts among the Palestinians will rise to the bait.

The difference is that while no one holds the whole Israeli state, with all its armed forces, police and allegedly omniscient security services responsible for what one fundamentalist settler does, or indeed for what the Israeli Defense Forces do, the embattled Palestinian Authority -- with its police stations in rubble, its forces under regular attack by Israel, not allowed to move from one village to another, and even denied the tax revenues it is owed -- are still held to account for every last suicide bomber.

Don't Underestimate Bush

There is ample room for skepticism, or even scoffing, about the Road Map, yet strangely enough, there is indeed a tantalizing hint that things may be different this time. And it is not just that prominent voices such as former AIPAC luminary and U.S. Ambassador to Israel, Martin Indyk, are pointing out the absurdity of conditioning peace talks on the shattered PA's ability to police other Palestinian factions.

Most liberals have underestimated President Bush. It is true that from appearances alone you would not trust him to ride a tricycle around a padded playground, but that belies his genuine accomplishments: In less than one year flat to have engineered, fought and won a war with no tangible casus belli, and in the teeth of strong opposition from most allies, is no mean achievement. Now it would seem that it is not just the State Department, but also the White House that is putting real pressure on Sharon to deliver.

Because without such American pressure, it is difficult to see any other rationale for the Likud Prime Minister to take the political risks he did with the Israeli right wing by announcing, completely out of character, that "Ruling three and a half million Palestinians cannot go on indefinitely," and adding that, "Today there are 1.8 million Palestinians fed by international organizations. Would you like to take this upon yourselves? Where will we get the money?"

Amazingly, he sounds convinced -- yet one does not have to be a cynic to doubt that he has had some sort of moral epiphany. Could it be he sincerely does not want to annoy George W. Bush? Or is his back against the wall for other reasons? The Israeli stock market soared when the cabinet signed on for the Road Map, showing that the money has no taste for continuing mayhem, and even less for a bruising confrontation with Washington.

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