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The End in Afghanistan? Radical Change Is in the Air and the American Position Is Visibly Crumbling

"Winning" is a distant, long-faded fantasy, defeat a rising reality.

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Instead, the U.S. command in Kabul and the administration back home have proceeded to tie themselves in a series of bizarre knots, issuing apologies, orders, and threats to no particular purpose as events escalated.  Soon after the news of the Koran burning broke, for instance, General John R. Allen, the U.S. war commander in Afghanistan, issued orders that couldn’t have been grimmer (or more feeble) under the circumstances.  Only a decade late, he  directed that all U.S. military personnel in the country undergo 10 days of sensitivity “training in the proper handling of religious materials.” 

Sensitivity, in case you hadn’t noticed at this late date, has not been an American strong suit there. In the headlines in the last year, for instance, were revelations about the 12-soldier  “kill team” that “hunted” Afghan civilians  “for sport,” murdered them, and posed for demeaning photos with their corpses.  There were the four wisecracking U.S. Marines who  videotaped themselves urinating on the bodies of dead Afghans -- whether civilians or Taliban guerrillas is unknown -- with commentary (“Have a good day, buddy… Golden -- like a shower”).  There was also that sniper unit proudly  sporting a Nazi SS banner in another photographed incident and the U.S. combat outpost named “Aryan.”  And not to leave out the allies, there were the British soldiers who were  filmed “abusing” children. 

And that’s just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to how Afghans have often experienced the American and NATO occupation of these last years.  To take but one example that recently caused outrage, there were the eight shepherd boys, aged six to 18,  slaughtered in a NATO air strike in Kapisa Province in northern Afghanistan (with the usual apology and forthcoming “investigation,” as well as claims,  denied by Afghans who also investigated, that the boys were armed). 

More generally, there are the hated  night raids launched by special operations forces that break into Afghan homes, cross cultural boundaries of every sort, and sometimes leave death in their wake.  Like  errant American and NATO air operations, which have been  commonplace in these war years, they are reportedly deeply despised by most Afghans. 

All of these, in turn, have been  protested again and again by Afghan President Hamid Karzai.  He has regularly demanded that the U.S. military cease them (or bring them  under Afghan control).  Being the president of Afghanistan, however, he has limited leverage and so American officials have paid  little attention to his complaints or his sense of what Afghans were willing to take.

The results are now available for all to see in an explosion of anger spreading across the country.  How far this can escalate and how long it can last no one knows.  But recent experience indicates that, once a population heads for the streets, anything can happen.  All of this could, of course, peter out, but with more than 30 protesters already dead, it could also take on a look reminiscent of the escalating civil war in Syria -- including, as has already happened on a small scale in the past, whole  units of Afghan security forces  defecting to the Taliban.

Unfolding events have visibly overwhelmed and even intimidated the Americans in charge.  However, as religious as the country may be and holy as the Koran may be considered, what's happened cannot be fully explained by the book burning.  It is, in truth, an explosion a decade in coming. 

Precursors and Omens

After the grim years of Taliban rule, when the Americans arrived in Kabul in November 2001, liberation was in the air.  More than 10 years later, the mood is clearly utterly transformed and, for the first time, there are reports of  “Taliban songs” being sung at demonstrations in the streets of the capital.  Afghanistan is, as the New York Times  reported last weekend (using language seldom seen in American newspapers) “a religious country fed up with foreigners”; or as Laura King of the Los Angeles Times  put it, there is now “a visceral distaste for Western behavior and values” among significant numbers of Afghans.

 
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