Obama's Secret Wars: How Our Shady Counter-Terrorism Policies Are More Dangerous Than Terrorism
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Pakistan has in many ways been a laboratory for counterterrorism, and U.S. experience there proves conclusively that any successes it has enjoyed are far outweighed by its failures. President Obama stated in his Afghan withdrawal speech that "together with the Pakistanis, we have taken out more than half of al-Qaida's leadership."
But, as I have been warning for two years now, the failures of U.S. counterterrorism strategy in Pakistan are so great that it is madness to extend this failed policy to the entire Muslim world. U.S. counter-terror policy in Pakistan has contributed to:
-- A vast increase in overall militant strength: While U.S. officials claim drone strikes are hurting Pakistani militants in tribal areas, in fact the Federation of American Scientists reports that "in less than a decade Pakistan has witnessed terror incidents increase almost fifty-fold." Though the CIA quintupled drone strikes in Pakistan to an annual average of 79 in 2009-10 from16 in 2004-8, it has not reduced violence. On the contrary, incidents of reported terrorism in Pakistan have quadrupled from an annual 2004-8 average of 470 to a 2009-10 annual average of 1723, with the number and seriousness of attacks skyrocketing even higher in 2011. Numerous reports indicate that drone strikes have driven jihadi forces further east into Karachi and then the Punjabi heartland where they are increasingly cooperating together and pose a growing danger to the Pakistani state. It has also increased the risk of suicide-bombers among the more than one million Pakistanis in the U.K., many with British passports able to travel freely to the U.S., whom David Cameron reported in Wikileaks cables were "radicalized" by the U.S. invasion of Iraq and have been presumably even more upset by growing U.S. murder of Pakistanis since.
-- A growing nuclear threat: U.S. counterterror drone strikes have contributed to 59 percent of the Pakistani people -- over 110 million people -- regarding the U.S. as their "enemy." While U.S. leaders continue to cavalierly disregard Pakistani public opinion, former U.S. Ambassador Anne Patterson reported in the Wikileaks cables that because of the public's hatred of the U.S., the Pakistani government has refused to cooperate with the U.S. on safeguarding its nuclear materials. U.S. ignoring Pakistani public opinion has thus helped create the single greatest threat to U.S. national security today. "Despite its political instability, Pakistan ... has the world’s fastest-growing nuclear stockpile," the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists recently reported. And it is considered one of the most insecure by nuclear experts. Former Senator Sam Nunn, who heads the Nuclear Threat Initiative, has said that "we are in a race between cooperation and catastrophe" in Pakistan.
U.S. policy has so angered the Pakistani military that the possibility of a pro-jihadi military coup is openly discussed in the N.Y. Times and in a new book by Bruce Riedel, who coordinated Obama's fall 2009 Afghan policy review and worked at the CIA when the Ronald Reagan armed Osama Bin Laden and supported Muslim extremist General Zia ul-Haq during the 1980s, the key U.S. foreign policy mistake leading to 9/11. Riedel's book describes in chilling detail precisely the "all-too-inevitable"disaster that current U.S. counterterrorism strategy could lead to. He writes that the "simplest way a jihadist Pakistan would emerge would be another military coup led by a general who shares the the worldview of Zia ul-Haq. A new Islamic Emirate of Pakistan ... would take control of the nuclear arsenal." Aligned with al Qaeda and armed with nuclear weapons, such a state would be a nightmare.
And, as he notes, there is precious little the U.S. could do in the event of such a coup: "U.S options to change the regime by means of a coup or assisting dissidents ... would be limited. The United States is so unpopular in Pakistan today that its endorsement of a politician is a kiss of death." And if the U.S. tried to invade,he writes, "the Pakistanis would of course use their nuclear weapons to defend themselves ... an invasion would be a mission from hell. There are no good choices." He also explores the possibility of another Mumbai-like attack on India from Pakistan, concluding that "sooner or later a Pakistan-based terror attack on India is going to lead to Armageddon."