Iraq's Elections Have Been Labeled a Success; Now What?

The holding of Iraq's third parliamentary elections on Sunday has generated a sense of satisfaction in Washington, but there is a feeling of anxiety about how the post-election negotiation process to form a new government might proceed.

Millions of Iraqis rushed to the polls amid major security challenges in parts of the country. Across Iraq, nearly 40 people were killed and dozens injured in insurgent attacks, with Baghdad having the highest number of casualties, according to Iraq's Interior Ministry.

"By any measure, this was an important milestone in Iraqi history … Today's voting makes it clear that the future of Iraq belongs to the people of Iraq," said U.S. President Barack Obama in a statement Sunday.

The president did not lose sight of the challenges that lay ahead. "We are mindful, however, that today's voting is the beginning and not the end of a long electoral and constitutional process… A parliament must be seated, leaders must be chosen, and a new government must be formed. All of these important steps will take time - not weeks, but months," Obama added.

The diverse electoral scene in Iraq witnessed over 300 political entities that included more than 6,000 candidates competing for the 325 seats of Iraq's Council of Representatives, or the parliament.

Many see the formation of the government as a major challenge ahead given that no single political group is expected to gain sufficient votes to be able to form the cabinet.

In 2005, it took around five months for Iraqi factions to establish a new government.

It is almost certain that one of the country's three major coalitions will be tasked with forming the future government. One coalition is the State of Law, led by Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, which is mostly made up of Shia groups and personalities but also has non-Shia elements within it.

Another major group is al-Iraqiya, a cross-sectarian coalition headed by former secular Shia Prime Minister Ayad Allawi. Al-Iraqiya includes powerful Sunni groups and figures such as Vice-President Tariq al-Hashemi.

The third group is the Iraqi National Alliance (INA), a combination of mostly religious groups whose influential figures are Ammar al-Hakim, Muqtada Sadr, Ahmed Chalabi and former prime minister Ibrahim al-Jafari. Al-Hakim leads the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, which was the most powerful Shia political party until last year's provincial elections.

The Iraqi and Arab press is full of contradictory reports regarding unofficial results. Most put Maliki's State of Law at the top of the race and others mostly cite to Allawi's al-Iraqiya as the second main collector of votes.

However, none of these reports are verifiable or publicly sanctioned by election officials. A member of Iraq's High Electoral Commission's top board has told the Kurdish Sbeiy news website that the preliminary results of the elections will be announced by the end of the week.

Given the hostilities among various groups to varying degrees, it is not clear which groups might enter into larger partnerships with one another to create the government. It is expected that the two major Shia coalitions of the State of Law and INA may be more susceptible to forging a broader partnership to form the government, given that they are both made up of mostly Shia forces and many of them are religious parties.

Iran could also play a role in bringing the two groups together as it had reportedly tried and failed to do before the elections.

However, a coalition between Maliki and Allawi is seen as rather unlikely given the differences in attitude and make-up between the two groups.

Al-Iraqiya favors a pro-Arab world foreign policy in the region, while Maliki and Shias generally lean more toward Iran and do not have warm relations with some key Sunni Arab states, especially Saudi Arabia.