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What You Should Be Watching For This Election

By Megan Carpentier, Air America Media. Posted November 3, 2009.


From the battle between moderate Republicans and the teabaggers, to marriage equality legislation, there is hot political action in the voting booths this year.

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While most of the country remains blithely unaware that Election Day occurs once a year, rather than just on leap years, voters in a few states know that even the odd-numbered years can bring hot political action to the voting booths. This year, that action's all along the eastern seaboard, but even a cold autumn wind won't chill anyone out.

Maine's Same Sex Marriage Referendum

In the northern-most state on the east coast, Governor John Baldacci made more than a few progressive hearts warmer when he signed into law a bill legalizing same sex marriage in the state. Almost immediately, anti-equality activists (many from outside the state) tried to throw cold water on Maine's recognition that the state has no business dictating who its citizens choose to spend their lives with -- what happened to "small government," anyway? -- and got a repeal on the ballot for tomorrow. Polls show that the race remains neck-and-(red)neck, and, like California's Prop 8, voters in favor of marriage equality will have to vote against the same sex marriage ballot question in order to vote for equal rightsfor their neighbors.

New York's 23rd Congressional District

While New York's a true-blue state, few people of the liberal persuasion (other than Hillary Clinton) have done particularly well in the state's most nothern voting booths. When President Obama nominated Congressman John McHugh to be the Secretary of the Army, few thought the 23rd would be a Democratic pick-up, even with Rahm Emanuel likely whispering that in the president's ear.

Fast forward to October and conservative teabaggers could yet hand Rahm Emanuel his sweetest fantasy. Local Republicans chose moderate Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava as the heir-apparent to McHugh's seat, but New York's Conservative Party wasn't down with Scozzafava's moderate positions on everything from reproductive rights to marriage equality, Emanuel's big-tent strategy be damned. They nominated the out-of-district Dan Hoffman and let the teabaggers (and the intellectual duo of Michele Bachmann  and Sarah Palin) try to plaster up some of Hillary Clinton's 18 million cracks about which Palin once spoke so adoringly.


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Canaries in the Coal Mine
Posted by: Blueprelude on Nov 3, 2009 9:36 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
These are the canaries in the coal mine elections. Based on Obama's consistent non-delivery of meaningful reform on many fronts, it is likely that Democrats will lose these elections, preparing the way for further losses in 2010.

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TODAY IS A VERY VERY BAD OMEN FOR DEMOCRATS !! PART 1
Posted by: maxpayne on Nov 3, 2009 11:21 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
So nice of you to hide the big races in NJ and VA while putting frivolous issues and a puny race in NY first ! Well, the PUBLIC LAVA IN TODAY'S ELECTIONS IN VA, NJ, and that district in NY is flaming high. Today, I didn't bother to vote but for the first time in a gubernatorial election, I saw hundreds of seniors and vets all lined up at the polling both, most of them supporting Bob McDonnell. Never before have I witnessed such huge Republican turnout. I just got off the phone with one of my coworkers who was at a meeting in NJ and he says that voters in NJ are reporting much bigger Republican turnout even in heavily Democratic precincts. There has been some higher Democratic turnout in NJ being reported compared to VA but even there, doesn't look good. I don't want to rain on Maher's parade but if the GOP is ahead in NJ by more than 5 points and/or ahead in VA by more than 15 points when the election is over, this is going to be a very very BAD OMEN for Obama and his party come next year and likely in 2012. So far, this is very very bad.

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TODAY IS A VERY VERY BAD OMEN FOR DEMOCRATS !! PART 2
Posted by: maxpayne on Nov 3, 2009 11:22 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Here's VA and this is very bad and the trend is most likely +15 for McDonnell.



Election 2009: Virginia Governor Election
Virginia Governor: McDonnell Stretches Lead To 13
Wednesday, October 28, 2009

Republican Robert F. McDonnell has now opened a 13-point lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds with less than a week to go in the race for governor of Virginia.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state - taken last night just after President Obama made a campaign appearance for Deeds in the state - shows McDonnell ahead 54% to 41%. Only four percent (4%) remain undecided.

Earlier this month, McDonnell led by seven, and last month he was up by nine.

The Deeds campaign and the White House have gone back-and-forth over whether the president should make a campaign appearance in the state. The initial reaction from Virginia voters to the president's campaign stop with Deeds late yesterday in Norfolk isn't reassuring: 39% say Obama campaigning for Deeds in Virginia makes them less likely to vote for the Democratic candidate. Just 24% say it makes them more likely to vote for Deeds, and 36% say it has no impact on their voting decision.

Among those likely to vote, 49% approve of the way Obama has handled his job as president. That’s down four points from earlier in the month.

McDonnell is overwhelmingly trusted more than Deeds on both taxes and government spending. On the transportation issue, 45% trust McDonnell while 35% trust Deeds.

Although Deeds has hammered McDonnell over the conservative social views in a college thesis paper the latter wrote in 1989, the impact of the thesis is fading. Deeds has been on the defensive since stumbling over a debate question last month, opening himself to charges that he is willing to raise taxes.

Just 41% of voters now say McDonnell's thesis is at least somewhat important in determining how they will vote. Twenty-four percent (24%) say it is very important. But 51% rate the thesis as unimportant, with 23% saying it's not very important and 28% viewing it as not at all important.

Sixty-two percent (62%) of voters in the state have a favorable view of McDonnell, up three points from earlier in the month and up nine points from last month.

Deeds is viewed favorably by 47%, a number that has been holding stable.

This race is markedly different from the other governor’s race this year. The New Jersey’s governor’s race is a toss-up. Not only that, all three major candidates in the race have wrapped up very high negative ratings. Unlike Virginia, whoever wins in New Jersey will be disliked by at least half the state’s voters.

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TODAY IS A VERY VERY BAD OMEN FOR DEMOCRATS !! PART 3
Posted by: maxpayne on Nov 3, 2009 11:25 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Election 2009: New Jersey Governor
New Jersey Governor’s Race Still Shows Christie with Slight Edge

Friday, October 30, 2009

Republican Chris Christie continues to hold a three-point advantage over incumbent Democrat Jon Corzine in New Jersey's down-to-the-wire race for governor.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state, conducted Thursday night, shows Christie with 46% of the vote and Corzine with 43%. Those numbers are unchanged from earlier in the week and little changed from polling conducted the week before.

The last four Rasmussen Reports polls have shown Christie with a very slight advantage ranging from two to four percentage points each time. Christie now leads by eight points among men while Corzine is up by two among women.

Independent candidate Chris Daggett attracts eight percent (8%) support in the latest poll. That’s up a point from earlier in the week but down three from two weeks ago. While more than 20% of the state’s voters have considered voting for Daggett at some point along the way, his actual support has been declining over the past couple of weeks. Daggett was initially seen primarily as a protest vote for those unhappy with Corzine as governor but unwilling to vote for a Republican.

Christie leads by seven points among those who are certain they will show up and vote.

Corzine does better among voters who might not make it to the polls. That's one reason President Obama, former President Bill Clinton and other Democratic Party luminaries are spending time in the Garden State. The more of these uncommitted voters that the Democratic Party and its allies can get to the polls, the better the prospects for Corzine. Democrats generally have an edge in New Jersey when it comes to getting out the vote, which is one reason no Republican has won a statewide race since 1997.

Still, even among supporters of the president, there is some reluctance to embrace Corzine. Voters who Strongly Approve of the president’s job performance overwhelmingly support Corzine. However, among those who Somewhat Approve of Obama’s performance, 48% say they’ll vote for Corzine, while another 48% will vote for one of the challengers—28% for Christie, 20% for Daggett.

Those who Somewhat or Strongly Disapprove of how the president is doing his job prefer Christie by wide margins. Overall, 55% of New Jersey voters give the president their approval.

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TODAY IS A VERY VERY BAD OMEN FOR DEMOCRATS !! PART 4
Posted by: maxpayne on Nov 3, 2009 11:26 AM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
Measuring the ultimate impact of third-party candidates is always challenging. Many voters initially say they support an independent option and then change their minds as Election Day nears. Over the past couple of weeks, the number of voters who cite Daggett as their first preference has declined from 16% to 12%. The number who will actually vote for such a candidate typically declines because they eventually decide to vote for the lesser of two evils between the major party candidates.

Currently, Daggett draws support from eight percent (8%) of Democrats and four percent (4%) of Republicans.

Overall, Daggett is viewed favorably by 37% of voters and unfavorably by 47%. His unfavorables are up seven points from earlier in the week and 20 points over the past three weeks. Daggett is viewed unfavorably by 66% of Republicans while Democrats and unaffiliated voters are more evenly divided in their views of him.

Corzine is now viewed favorably by 44% and unfavorably by 54%. Those numbers are a slight improvement from earlier in the week.

Christie’s totals are 48% favorable and 50% unfavorable, down slightly from earlier in the week when the two were even.

Early in the year, Christie held a solid lead over Corzine. The governor’s campaign worked to make Christie an unacceptable alternative and succeeded in driving the negative ratings up for the GOP hopeful. Daggett became a possible candidate for those who didn’t like the governor but also didn’t want to vote for a Republican, so Christie began linking Corzine and Daggett. That has succeeded in driving up Daggett’s negative ratings. About the only thing certain in New Jersey at the moment is that the next governor will be someone that is disliked by at least half the state.

In this year's only other gubernatorial race, Republican Robert F. McDonnell has now opened a 13-point lead over Democrat R. Creigh Deeds in Virginia.

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FINAL UPDATE: DEMOCRATS GO DOWN IN FLAMES IN BOTH NJ AND VA !!!
Posted by: maxpayne on Nov 3, 2009 8:17 PM   
Current rating: Not yet rated    [1 = poor; 5 = excellent]
REPUBLICANS WIN VIRGINIA 60 - 40 AT 92% OF THE PRECINCTS IN !

REPUBLICANS ALSO WIN STRONG IN NEW JERSEY 50 - 44 AT 88% OF THE PRECINCTS IN !

WAKE UP ! THIS PARTY'S ALREADY GETTING ITS FIRST TASTE OF GETTING INCINERATED BY THE PUBLIC ANGER AND THIS IS A VERY VERY BAD OMEN, YOU HEAR ?!?!? I'M NOT A REPUBLICAN BUT THIS IS WHAT WE GET FOR PATHETIC LEADERSHIP AND GOVERNING IN WASHINGTON !!!

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